#13
Krasnaya Zvezda
No. 79
May 2002
[translation for personal use only]
THE FOURTH WORLD WAR: MYTH OR REALITY?
By Alexei LYASHCHENKO, Krasnaya Zvezda

The world is now celebrating the 57th Victory in Europe (VE)-Day anniversary. The Second World War became the most devastating war in history. Right now, millions of people the world over are paying their tribute to all those, who died for the sake of preventing any other global wars. Nevertheless, quite a few analysts, specialists and mass-media bodies are saying ever more loudly that the fourth world war has now engulfed this planet. In their opinion, this rather unusual war differs greatly from the First and Second World Wars, as well as the Cold War, which is sometimes referred to as the Third World War. However, the fourth world war encompasses well-nigh the same political, economic and military fronts.

The Political Front

Political hostilities allegedly began right after the Cold War, which was called on to demolish the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc. The bi-polar world, which had existed during the Cold War, was maintained through a balance of power and with the help of deterrents. However, such deterrents vanished into thin air after the Cold War, thus destabilizing the global situation. Well, such a situation could not persist for a long time at this stage. A struggle for a new world order got underway, with Washington advocating a uni-polar and US-led world. Moreover, Washington claims the right to decide the world's destiny. However, this concept doesn't suit many countries, Russia, China and India, in the first place. These three countries suggest establishing a multi-polar world order, which would enable every Western, Eastern, Northern and Southern state to develop independently in conditions of peace, stability and national security.

The struggle for the Soviet Union's legacy became one of this war's manifestations.

The disintegration of the socialist bloc removed a buffer zone dividing the First World and the Third World. Consequently, the so-called Golden Billion, i.e. prosperous countries, keep fighting the opponents of globalization and that cultural- civilization expansion. Incidentally, the Third World had voiced the relevant ultimatums several days prior to the September 11, 2001 terrorist acts in the United States. Durban hosted a conference on racism, with conference delegates demanding that Western countries pay multi-billion-dollar reparations for slave trade. Previously, this demand was made after the G-8's summit in Genoa, that is, after the Third World became convinced that the First World was in no mood to write off specific debts and to scale down trade barriers hindering the importation of products from under-developed countries. Moreover, it became clear that the First World didn't intend to render substantial aid in overcoming poverty and backwardness. Therefore one can safely say that some Third World countries are becoming a "hornet's nest" of terrorism, illicit drug trafficking and other modern global troubles.

New York and Washington were subjected to horrendous terrorist attacks September 11, 2001, with the entire world accepting America's leading role in the struggle against international terrorism virtually without any reservations. However, any other scenario seemed impossible just because mankind must now cope with this terrible challenge. As a result, Washington has now decided to consolidate its gains; for example, the US side wants to list specific terrorists and their accomplices all on its own, meting out the appropriate punishment. The US side is making it clear that it doesn't want to pander to those countries opposing Washington. This is proved convincingly by a recent information leak concerning the Pentagon's possible nuclear targets. At the same time, the United States is lavishing unprecedentedly massive appropriations on the modernization of its war machine, which would enable Washington to rule the roost in a uni-polar world.

The Economic Front

This "war" also has its own economic specifics. Naturally enough, the scale of economic "hostilities" and their methods differ considerably from military operations. Nonetheless, such "hostilities," which began several years after the USSR's demise, entail the same, and even greater, destructive consequences. One can mention numerous economic "offensives" in this connection; I'm talking about South-East Asian economic crises of the mid and late 1990s. (South-East Asia is the Japanese industry's main "assembly shop" -- Ed.) Add to this automobile wars between the United States, Europe and Japan, European-US trade wars, those "steel" battles between Russia and the United States, as well as that really tough rivalry on the global arms market.

The US congress likes to impose economic sanctions on those specific countries, which don't suit Washington for political reasons. Well, these sanctions are also a component part of economic wars. US involvement in the latest abortive Venezuelan coup (that aimed to overthrow President Hugo Chavez) speaks volumes here. The aforesaid coup was also called on to reduce OPEC's influence on the global oil market. The fight against terrorism in Afghanistan (that can enable the United States to obtain Caspian oil), the projected military operation against Iraq and the decision to include Iran (both countries are big- league oil-market players) into the "axis of evil" also fit nicely into this strategy.

The Military Front

Resolute political and economic actions, nonetheless, imply that the concerned parties will try to avoid real wars because any war might spell mankind's demise. Still this doesn't mean that no battles are being fought along the military front. Their list includes the show of force, regional conflicts and small wars, i.e. NATO's aggression against Yugoslavia and the present- day counter-terrorist operation on Afghan territory. Meanwhile swelling defense budgets and the development of new-generation weaponry are seen as the main aspect of military activities.

The United States also keeps setting the pace in this field. The list of new-generation weapons systems includes the NMD (National Missile Defense) system, as well THAADS (Theater High Altitude Area Defense) systems, which the US side wants to deploy. Moreover, the Pentagon's plans for developing miniature nuclear devices were leaked to the public not so long ago.

The United States is just about the only country of the world, which can deploy large aircraft carrier task forces, strategic air-transport commands, impressive satellite clusters, as well as reconnaissance and data-exchange networks. Still it's crystal clear that the world has responded adequately to this US challenge.

For example, America's NATO allies have now stepped up their efforts in order to establish European armed forces, which would not depend upon the United States.

Meanwhile China has boosted its defense budget by an unprecedentedly great margin this year. According to analysts, the bulk of Chinese military spending will be used to develop space rockets and satellites in line with a new national strategy.

What Should Russia Do?

President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation delivered his annual state-of-the-nation address before the Federal Assembly (Parliament) this past April, emphasizing the fact that tough competition for markets, investment, as well as for political and economic influence, was a salient feature of the modern world. Such competition has assumed truly global proportions, Putin stressed. Russia had to cede many global- market niches as a result of its weakness; such niches were immediately seized by others. No one wants to give them back just like that; and nor will anyone do this, the President went on to say. This statement highlights Russia's positions in the struggle for a new world order, also suggesting ways of rectifying this situation.

It goes without saying that Russia must once again become a powerful and prosperous country; such is the main trouble- shooting option. Russia has all the required pre-requisites for accomplishing this objective. I'm talking about abundant mineral deposits, a tremendous intellectual potential and many other factors, too. However, all these factors have to be merged into single whole and used to attain this goal.

The Russian foreign policy, which should also serve this goal, should be based on cynical pragmatism. To cut a long story short, Russia should aspire for close-knit cooperation with other countries in every profitable sphere; this concerns long-term prospects, as well.

Russia will apparently have to experience some rather unpleasant events already in the near future. For example, it's still unclear whether a new START agreement will be signed in the course of the forthcoming Russian-US summit.

Still one thing is clear. The United States and NATO, which maintain special relations with Russia, and which are ready to cooperate with it in line with the 20-country format, don't want to renounce NATO's projected eastward expansion. The relevant decision will be made already this year. Consequently, the war machine of this mightiest organization will move ever closer toward Russian borders.

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