#11
Moscow News
April 24-30, 2002
Warning Shot in the Head
By Viktor Loshak

Moskovskiye Novosti editor-in-chief

What lies behind the president's state of the nation address, presented last Thursday - so much wishful thinking or a coherent program?

Will the 50-minute presentation be followed up by anything more substantial than the merry reemergence of the listeners from the Marble Hall into the foyer where they joined a long line to get back their cell phones that they had to surrender at the door? These questions are now being posed by journalists who, in the two days after Vladimir Putin's speech, have parsed it sentence by sentence and word by word, even analyzing the president's facial expression as he went along. Putin has once again shown himself a liberal far more radical than those who vote for him and who support him in parliament. There are only a few politicians who, speaking from a public rostrum, will have the nerve to say that "the most important thing today is to create conditions that would enable Russian citizens to make money."

The Westernizers heard almost all they wanted to hear. Irina Khakamada, a leader of the Union of Right Forces, said quite bluntly: "This is in fact our own message." Putin stated in no uncertain terms, not so much to the outside world as to his own country, how important Western appraisal and Russia's integration into the world market are for him.

Clearly, the presidential address is also a product of lobbyist consensus. The final amendments to the document are known to have been made on the night before the presentation. We can only guess as to what struggle was unfolding around it. One thing is certain, though: This round has been won by the government and presidential representatives.

Until concrete steps have been taken, it is not entirely clear whether laying into the bureaucrats is the familiar Soviet-era ploy or a warning shot in the head. Because statements to the effect that "the executive needs to be restructured," that "the country's room for maneuver is blocked by an inefficient state apparat," and that "the state apparat is ill-equipped to deal with state tasks," while any administrative barriers in this apparat "are surmounted by means of bribes," simply must be followed up by action. With his state of the nation address Putin has created a base for a minor personnel revolution - to end what he sees as a "senseless competition between the people and the ruling establishment."

In the wake of some of the presidential comments, new government appointments will come as no surprise. For instance, if it is said that "we still do not know the real volume of the state sector" of the economy, is this not cause enough to replace the leadership of the State Property Management Committee, which is so badly out of touch with public opinion?

It will be recalled that Putin has already issued a warning to the government. He spoke, half-jokingly, about a possible cabinet reshuffle back at an informal pre-New Year's meeting with Kasyanov and his ministers. At the same time, by directing the prime minister to come up with proposals on reorganization of the apparat, the president indicated that there was nothing threatening Kasyanov for the time being.

It is not ruled out that the cadre revolution will primarily affect not the government but the apparat of the presidential envoys in the federal districts as well as the envoys themselves. Officials at the Presidential Staff are already openly talking about the inefficiency of these over-inflated structures and the disturbing propensity to intervene in economic matters displayed by some regional leaders.

So, what, or who, will the president begin with, and will he begin at all? Who will be tapped? The address all of sudden showed that the Duma's pet trick - statist hysteria - is no longer in demand (the president did not even broach the subject), and so quite a few politicians who gambled on the "statist" struggle against the WTO and the West in general look set to fall by the wayside. To get even a modicum of sympathy from the Kremlin, they will have to change tack as a matter of urgency. I believe they will easily manage the maneuver.

I remember that at one presentation of the presidential state of the nation address, some over-liberal passages provoked angry rumblings in the part of the hall to the speaker's left. The April 18 presentation passed in silence. Maybe the left had a very limited choice: either keep silent or grumble non-stop.

Although Putin said things that may not have pleased many of those present (after all, it was not a Union of Right Forces congress), everyone seemed to be happy. I believe that the president said plenty of words that are necessary and important for business (e.g., about the harmfulness of the new social tax). Now, what Duma deputy or government minister (let alone their spouses and children) is not a businessman in Russia?

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