#9
strana.ru
April 2, 2002
Alarm Bells Ring as Experts Point to Demographic Upheaval
Population to shrink "30 percent by mid-century"
By Michael Stedman

A flood of figures in recent weeks puts new focus on Russian authorities' concerns over the rate of population decline and the state of the nation's health.

Mounting cause for concern has generated the alarming estimate that consistent and continuing decline will have cut population numbers by 30 percent in the year 2050, leaving Russia with a reported 101.9 million people compared with 144 million now.

But it could be even more dramatic, say demographers ringing alarm bells in the corridors of power.

The worst-case scenario could shrink numbers by up to 47 percent, leaving the nation with just 77.2 million souls in 2050. And the trend is delivering Russia a steadily-ageing population, the experts say.

All the forecasts tell the same story, warning that pensioners will represent 35.2 percent of citizens 50 years hence, compared with 20.6 percent today.

The worries of those experts found recent resonance in a United Nations Development Program analysis pointing to the wide-ranging consequences.

High mortality rates are a major factor behind the trend, Russian media reports indicate. Averaged across the nation, deaths were outpacing births by 170 percent, one news agency said. In 27 regions of Russia, that figure had soared to between 200 percent and 290 percent.

Cardiovascular diseases are major killers, observers say. One economist writing in a Russian newspaper earlier this year said these were the cause of more than 55 percent of deaths, 13 percent up in the first 10 months of last year compared with 12 months before.

But whatever the cause, Russia's menfolk are falling victim in droves, the figures show. They're dying earlier, at 58.6 years, compared to 72.1 for women. Now, Russia has the largest gender gap for life expectancy in the world, according to reports quoting the Russian State Statistics Committee.

Rising incidence of HIV-Aids and TB are trends of key concern to the authorities, as demonstrated in figures cited by Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matvienko at a national conference focused on social development.

Her data showed that the number of HIV-infected people in Russia shot from 18,000 to 85,500 between 1999 and 2001. Some 90 percent were intravenous drug users.

Official statistics showed 270,000 addicts on record last year and only one in five received medical treatment, she told the conference.

There's scant evidence to suggest migrants to Russia will help address a ticking demographic timebomb. Head of state Vladimir Putin put some faith last year in immigration tackling the numbers game. But demographers are said to be working on figures showing in-bound arrivals matching a mere 8.3 percent of population loss during most of last year.

Russia's national population census due later this year will chart some challenging issues.

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