#3
Izvestia
March 14, 2002
THE CULTURE OF CONSENSUS IS HARD TO MASTER
The Putin-Bush summit will not depend on the poultry exports problem
Author: Georgy Bovt
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON ARE NOT GOING TO LET THE FORTHCOMING PUTIN- BUSH SUMMIT FAIL. ALL RECENT EVENTS IN RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS TESTIFY TO THIS, EVEN DESPITE THE "POULTRY-STEEL WAR". ALEXANDER VERSHBOW, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA, CLAIMS THE US-RUSSIA COOPERATION IS A SUCCESS.

Western politicians seldom utter the phrase so common in Russia: the media is to blame for everything. This is somehow considered politically incorrect. Of course, U.S. ambassador to Russia Alexander Vershbow, who invited several journlists to his residence, Spaso- house, did not use this phrase. However, he did not fail to note the Russian media has lately been presenting Russian-American relations in an overly dramatic and negative tone. But there is nothing so bad in them: relations between the presidents have considerably improved after the Texas summit, there have been "some political achievements". Poultry imports and steel exports are not the be-all and end-all.

The public activity of the U.S. ambassador in Moscow has lately increased: he gives lectures, arranges seminars, and gives interviews. If one takes into account the emphatic restraint with which the Russian government responds to some US actions that might previously have aroused political hysteria in Moscow (military cooperation with Georgia, restrictions on imports of Russian steel, and so on), the conclusion can be drawn that both parties are building on the successful Putin-Bush summit in Moscow, May 23.

Vershbow believes a "legally binding" agreement on reduction of offensive nuclear weapons will most likely be managed by the meeting in Moscow, although one cannot "guarantee this fully". Meanwhile, the parties are known to differ fundamentally in one point (this is one of the topics Russian defense minister Sergei Ivanov discusses at the talks in Washington): what is to be done with the warheads that are cut? Moscow favors destruction. Washington is only prepared for partial destruction; America would prefer to reserve a major part by removing it from action and storing in a safe place, "just in case". In answering our question whether there were exact figures on the negotiating table in respect to warheads suggested for storage, Vershbow did not name any figures, admitting there were certain "approximate estimates" and saying the overall number of destroyed and stored warheads would eventually be considerably less than START-1 had provided for.

While arguing the American position, the ambassador said the US does not currently produce nuclear warheads at all and that some kind of insurance policy ought to exist in "our unpredictable world". Provided there are clear measures of mutual monitoring and transparency (they are to be developed in the agreement under preparation), Russia would have no further concerns for its security.

The second important document of the Putin-Bush summit will be a text (its status - a statement, a declaration, or something else - is not yet known) about a "new strategic structure". The general idea is recognition by Russia and the US of threats common to both, and a statement of intention to fight them together. The question is about nonproliferation of mass destruction weapons and missile technologies, the fight against terrorism, and so on. The issue of transparency measures in the sphere of the national missile defense the US is creating will evidently be added to the same document (the six-month notification time will end right after the Moscow summit, after which the US will withdraw from the ABM Treaty of 1972 that banned creation of a national missile defense). The U.S. ambassador noted these measures might include "cooperation in the production sphere". Apparently, this may mean America's readiness to permit Russian participation in producing missile defense system components, as well as to share some technologies. However, the Russian political and military authorities have until now been skeptical about these promises.

The agreement on the new architecture of strategic security is connected with prospects of cooperation between Russia and NATO discussed currently. In this connection, Mr. Vershbow did not share the skeptical assessment voiced by an Izvestia observer concerning development of these relations over the past six months after the known initiative of British Prime Minister Tony Blair who proposed drastically raising the status of Russian participation in discussing the NATO agenda and even decision making. Vershbow believes the new formula of relations - the so-called twenty - will be launched "before the NATO meeting in May", but not in autumn (a view prevails among the press adjustment of new mechanisms scheduled for the NATO May summit in Iceland was postponed until autumn). Another thing is what the agenda will be of Russia-NATO joint work. In the view of Vershbow, it will be limited at the starting stage.

As far as the economy is concerned, not everything is that bad here, Vershbow believes. Thus, speaking about the prohibitive tariffs the US has recently introduced on steel imports, he emphasized that Russia suffered less than other countries. Russia can even increase export of certain types of steel produce (the so-called slabs - flat billets) by 20% compared to 2001, without any tariffs. The Americans are obviously going to stand firm on the poultry meat issue. Ambassador Vershbow said American veterinary monitoring was almost the strictest in the world.

Something indicates, however, that the ban which the Russian Agricultural Ministry imposed on imports of American poultry meat for two months is not a coincidence. It will expire on May 10, two weeks before President Bush arrives in Moscow. There is every reason to believe that Bush will not have to mention the issue of poultry meat - if there is no unforeseen deterioration in Russia-US relations.

(Translated by P. Pikhnovsky)

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