#3
Vremya MN
March 5, 2002
THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
What does the United States want from the Caucasus?
Author: Leonid Radzikhovsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

WHAT ARE THE AMERICANS GOING TO DO WITH THE CAUCASUS? THEY ARE FORMING A RING, A RING OF MILITARY BASES ALONG RUSSIA'S BORDERS IN THE SOUTH. BUT THIS IS NOT A RING AGAINST RUSSIA. THE RING IS POINTING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTH, TO MUSLIM STATES LIKE IRAN, IRAQ, AND SO ON.

Why would the Americans land a force in Georgia? Needless to say, the benevolent American-Georgian-Russian explanations are hardly credible. On the other hand, the hysterical outcry in Russia is not convincing either. All right, so the Americans and Georgians are lying. Perhaps they are. But what is the truth?

Eduard Shevardnadze is losing control and power; he fears for his life and the Americans are the last hope to which he is clinging. In principle, this may explain everything - but some details still don't fit. Are these Americans (and how many of them - four or 104?) going to personally defend Shevardnadze? Let's assume that the Americans are merely symbolic. Their actual numbers don't matter. What counts is that the Americans' arrival shows that the United States is not going to abandon Shevardnadze. This nuance alone calms Georgia down. Such scandals play into Shevardnadze's hands, since, given the circumstances, all Georgians are forced to defend him as a symbol of their nation attacked by "Russian imperialist media and politicians". In other words, patriotism is the last resort of any unlucky president.

It is much less clear with the Americans. Why have they gone into Georgia?

"Settling in the Caucasus." It has a nice ring to it; it is convincing, if not looked at too closely. Does the United States lack influence in this region? On whom do Shevardnadze and all of Georgia rely - Russia or America? America. (Which is strange, because in Moscow Georgian politicians and business leaders are received at a higher level than that on which they are received in the United States; because all money comes to Georgia from Russia, not from the United States; because the huge Georgian diaspora in Russia is many times more influential than the tiny one in the United States. All the same, it is the United States Georgia looks up to. Nothing to be done here. These are Soviet provincial psychological problems at play.) The same goes for Azerbaijan, by the way. Where does Aliyev get treatment - in the familiar Kremlin hospital in Moscow, or in Cleveland? If they wanted to, the Americans could easily join in any Azerbaijani oil project, elbowing the Russians out.

It isn't hard to understand that the Caucasus is dreaming about American companies coming in (dreams are the only place it can see them, but that's the Americans' choice), and the Americans do not have to pave their way there with force of arms. What are the Americans going to do with the Caucasus? They will automatically get whatever they wish there, and they are unlikely to be eager to deal with the problems of the region, much less find themselves involved in Georgia's troubles.

So only one answer is possible. The Americans are not acting for the sake of something. They are acting against someone. Against Russia, naturally. They are forming a ring around Russia: Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Baltic states.

This assumption immediately kicks in the unconditional reflexes. Anti-Americanism is something Russians are good at. It seems Russians think that the United States responds in kind, and is always on the lookout for ways of doing something to spite Russia - to conquer, to encircle, to annex...

I don't think this is what the United States is after. Encircling Russia in a ring of bases and so on - that is nonsense, worthy of the Zavtra newspaper. Why would the United States form any kind of geopolitical ring around Russia? It would have been logical if Washington had really intended:

- to split Russia;

- to colonize Russia piece by piece; or

- to wage war on Russia if all these plans failed.

Prokhanov, writing in Zavtra, says this is what the United States is really after. More level-headed Russians cannot and do not believe in the "theory of the ring".

There is one other detail. Opinions about Putin can and do differ. But unless he is believed to be an agent of influence of the United States (this is what Prokhanov and Co. believe), we have to admit that he, the president of the Russian Federation, is not scared by the "American invasion". This means that he does not believe in rings either, and since he lacks any trump cards, he's choosing not to bluff in this particular game. Perhaps he is doing the right thing?

And yet, what have the Americans come to Georgia for? In my view, the answer is simple. Yes, they are forming a ring, a ring of military bases along Russia's borders in the south. But this is not a ring against Russia, as Russians - with their manias and phobias - may believe. The ring is pointing in the direction of the south, to Muslim states like Iran, Iraq, and so on. They are the nations that the United States wants to control, the nations that it intends to put under pressure, both psychological and military. Given the situation, the southern borders of the CIS do become a zone of America's vital interests. Given the situation, America needs Russia's support, or at least its neutrality. I think this is the card Putin intends to play in this game. He also wants to join the American Fellowship of the Ring.

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