#6
Komsomolskaya Pravda
February 28, 2002
RUSSIA BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM BIG OIL
Russia, the United States, and influence in the Caucasus
Author Sergei Chugayev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

TWO THEORIES ABOUT GEORGIA'S EAGERNESS TO ACCEPT AMERICAN ASSISTANCE IN DEALING WITH TERRORISTS IN THE PANKISI GORGE. THERE IS A HUGE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OVER CASPIAN OIL UNDERWAY, AND GEORGIA'S MOVE SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A SIGNIFICANT DEFEAT FOR MOSCOW IN THIS BATTLE.

It is common knowledge that the events of the last several years in the Caucasus - restoration of constitutional order, counter- terrorism operation, and so on - are in fact episodes in the huge battle for control over Caspian oil. To be more precise, for the transport routes of Caspian oil. That is why the news that Georgia has invited US commandos to help it fight terrorists - while ignoring analogous proposals from Moscow - should be viewed as a significant defeat for Moscow in this battle.

Essentially, neither Georgia nor the United States bother to conceal the fact that they are really aiming to ensure the safety and security of the future pipeline. Restoration of order in the Pankisi gorge is just a preliminary phase in implementing the plan. If the plan is a success (which is likely, by the way), the major pipeline will be built across Georgia. Shevardnadze will get guarantees of stability of his regime and considerable money. Russia will lose immeasurably more than $4 billion. The Chechen war and all casualties will have become pointless.

However, there is another theory about the American military presence in Georgia. Referring to sources in the Georgian government, advocates of the theory claim that the arrival of US commandos in Georgia is a corollary of an agreement between Russia and the United States, and that Moscow and Washington have agreed on dividing Georgia into spheres of influence.

Advocates of this theory consider that deployment of an American military contingent in Georgia, a country bordering on Russia, would have been impossible without Moscow's consent and its interests in the region taken into account. They are of the opinion that the Kremlin's interests in the Caucasus have been observed in an unexpected manner - that the Americans came up with the proposals to divide Georgia into spheres of influence which essentially means its split into several administrative-territorial formations. This agreement allegedly establishes Russia's control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia (with the prospect of their eventual annexation), Adzharia and Dzhavakhetia. Moreover, Washington needs the deal so badly (the theory assumes) that it doesn't even intend to insist on dismantling Russian military bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki and is prepared to bring up the matter of revision of the Istanbul accords on withdrawal of the Russian troops from the region.

All this is confirmed by reports from diplomatic sources to the effect that deployment of a US contingent in the Pankisi gorge and division of Georgia was discussed in early February by the Russian- American working group on Afghanistan chaired by Deputy Foreign Minister V. Trubnikov and Undersecretary of State R. Armitage.

Time will tell which of the two theories is correct.

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