#6
eurasianet.org
January 16, 2002
STATE DEPARTMENT REPORT FINDS NEW ATTITUDE IN FORMER SOVIET UNION ON MISSILE DEFENSE

Opposition to US construction of a missile defense shield is softening in the countries of the former Soviet Union, according to State Department data. A survey published by the State Department's Office of Research asserts that the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States enhanced the credibility of Washington's arguments in favor of building anti-missile defense system.

The report, called Missile Defense in a New Security Setting, seeks to debunk the idea that leadership elites in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus are fearful of a potential American missile shields. The study - which involved polling 1,800 people in the four countries during late September and early October - states: "Plans to develop a system of strategic missile defense…will not be a major cause for alarm among Russian elites, not to mention among those in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus."

US President George W. Bush has so far failed to reach agreement on a missile defense shield with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. [For additional background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite the lack of agreement, the State Department study notes that the Russian leadership is open to negotiations on the missile-defense issue.

"President Putin apparently came to the United States in November prepared to negotiate on nearly all security issues, including MD [missile defense]," the study says. "Our latest poll of Russian elites find that more say the US rationale for wanting MD is credible than not credible."

Opinion in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus - the other states that inherited weapons from the Soviet nuclear arsenal - is even more disposed to US missile defense intentions than in Russia. In Kazakhstan, for example, 85 percent of the 300 people polled said that US deployment of a missile defense shield would not pose a threat to national security. In Russia, 47 percent said a US missile shield would not create a security threat.

The report, released in late 2001, was designed to reflect the opinion of policy-making elites of the countries involved. The report defined the elite as comprising representatives of the "executive and legislative branches of government, national and local; managers of state-run and private enterprises; the military and security services; the media; and the cultural intelligentsia."

Some political observers in Russia and elsewhere have expressed concern that an American missile shield would be destabilizing, arguing that it would encourage US unilateralism in the international diplomatic arena. The State Department report, however, claims that only 31 percent of the Russian policy-making elite saw a missile defense shield as an instrument designed to enhance US "world hegemony." Only 23 percent of Kazakhstanis considered a US system a hegemonic move.

According to the survey, 39 percent of Russian respondents and 56 percent of Kazakhstanis cited American security needs as the likely impetus for an American missile defense system. Nevertheless, the survey also indicates that mistrust of American power remains pervasive in the former Soviet Union. In all four countries, the elites would rather respond to American missile defense plans by allying with Western European nations than by cooperating with Washington. Given Russia's desire to claim the cultural privileges that come with being part of Europe, this sentiment figures to deepen if American missile-defense plans progress. In addition, the survey found that 54 percent of Russians and 65 percent of Kazakhstanis favor a Russian missile-defense program, regardless of what the Americans do.

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