#2
Financial Times (UK)
11 January 2002
Russia criticises US nuclear policy change
By Robert Cottrell in Moscow, Richard Wolffe in Washington and Eoin Callan in London

Russia on Thursday responded to an apparent about-turn in US policy on nuclear weapons by inisting that arms cuts must be radical, verifiable and irreversible and "not just on paper".

Moscow's response came after the Bush administration unveiled a policy change that included Pentagon proposals to remove nuclear warheads from 'active duty' without actually destroying them.

The proposals to store rather than destroy the warheads will pose fresh difficulties for President Vladimir Putin as he attempts to steer Russia on a more pro-Western course.

Mr Putin had one big diplomatic setback last month when the US said it would withdraw from the anti-ballistic missile treaty of 1972 in order to begin work on a national missile defence system. Mr Putin called the move "mistaken", but did not threaten any counter-measures.

Now the US is starting to make clear its differences with Russia over a proposed new deal to reduce nuclear warheads. Consultations at expert level are due to take place in Washington next week. But the many points of basic disagreement between the US and Russia make it far from clear that Mr Putin will get anything like the deal that he wants.

Alexander Yakovenko, a spokesperson for the Russian foreign ministry, said in a statement: "We believe Russian-American agreements on further cuts in nuclear arsenals must firstly be radical, down to 1,500-2,200 warheads, secondly verifiable, and thirdly irreversible.

"That means strategic nuclear weapons must be cut not only on paper," he said.

Alexander Pikayev, a Russian arms-control expert, said: "Mr Putin has been doing a lot of things for the US, but so far the benefits are not clear."

"The more steps he takes without having something to show in exchange, the more criticism he will face among the ruling elite," he said

Mark Galeotti, a Russian security specialist at Kewell University, said the US policy change left Russian President Vladimir Putin with "very little room to manoeuvre" on arms reduction.

Mr Galeotti said it could jeopardise the "unprecedented" support of the Russian military for Mr Putin's arms policy. "This is the type of thing that could make the general staff, and even the defence ministry, come out and criticise him," he said.

The Bush administration has faced widespread criticism since it confirmed that it was not prepared to cut the number of warheads, but intended instead to remove them from active duty and hold them in reserve.

The policy shift follows a campaign commitment by President George W. Bush to reduce unilaterally the US nuclear stockpile from around 6,000 warheads to between 1,700 and 2,000 over the next 10 years.

Policy analysts from the libertarian Cato Institute and the more centrist Brookings Institution said the proposals sent "the wrong message" on nuclear arms reductions.

Charles Pena, senior defence analyst at the Cato Institute, said: "This is an accounting sleight of hand, bad arms control, and bad policy.

"If the US retains more weapons, so will Russia. And the Chinese will likely view the entire US strategic arsenal, not just deployed weapons, as a threat and react accordingly."

Ivo Daalder, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the policy proposals were disappointing in the light of the military tensions between India and Pakistan, which are both nuclear powers.

He said: "The message that one implicitly sends to countries like India and Pakistan is: If you want to be truly secure, having nuclear weapons and maintaining them in large numbers is a good idea.

"We should have tried to send the message that President Bush as a presidential candidate tried to send, that nuclear weapons are becoming increasingly marginal in the way we conduct foreign and defence policy."

However, the Pentagon insisted on Wednesday that the proposed shift in policy would have a direct impact on reducing US reliance on nuclear weapons and would prompt Russia to follow suit.

JD Crouch, assistant secretary of defence for international security policy, said: "The important fact is that we are actually taking weapons off of the operationally deployed force. This is the force that could be or would be used in an extreme situation, and consequently I think that is a very positive benefit. I believe in fact the Russians will be doing a very similar thing."

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