#4
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
December 28, 2001
WHAT IS THE BASIS OF THE PUTIN PHENOMENON?
President Putin's approval rating may soon start sinking
Author: Lidia Andrusenko
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

PUTIN'S UNBELIEVABLY HIGH APPROVAL RATING STILL REMAINS AT THE SAME LEVEL, BUT ACCORDING TO ANALYSTS, THE SITUATION MAY SOON CHANGE, WITH THE IMPENDING CRISIS DRAWING CLOSER. THE PRESIDENTIAL TEAM WILL HAVE TO FIND OR CREATE SOME ENEMIES, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE PRESIDENT'S POPULARITY.

The steadily high approval rating of the Russian president remains a political puzzle for many analysts. Some of them have even called it "the Putin phenomenon" - there are no signs of prosperity in Russia, yet the people's trust in the president keeps rising. Of course, there have been public attempts to question such high approval ratings, but they failed: leading polling agencies have refuted all allegations, declaring that opinion polls are done regularly, and with maximal accuracy. If we were to draw some average level of Vladimir Putin's popularity, based on data of the National Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM), the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM) and ROMIR, then the president's confidence rating would be around 70%, while the approval rating reaches 80%. And if presidential elections were scheduled for next Sunday, Putin would win in the first round.

However, there is nothing unusual in these figures. The "Turkmenian", in the words of Vladimir Ryzhkov, rating of the president remains rating of hope. And hope for the young, energetic and intelligent president, who would help Russia overcome setbacks, has only become stronger this year. The reason for this is, first of all, the extreme events in the world. at the background of embarrassment of leaders of other states facing the new threat, the Russian president has shown himself in a better light, which was immediately reflected in his rating.

Putin has become a sudden discovery not only for the west. No mater how strange it may seem, some research shows that his rating has increased due to his firm "pro-western" policy. It seemed before that Russians preferred the east, or at least, should choose neutrality. The support of Russians, not of the political elite, which doubted in choosing priorities, if not exactly got split, allowed Putin to make several radical steps, which would have been impossible in another set of circumstances: in particular, he accepted the USA withdrawal from the ABM Treaty without hysterics and decided to cooperate with NATO.

However, Putin's recent interview with citizens broadcast on TV proved that Russians are not very interested in foreign affairs. And we do not rule out that if after the events of September 11 Putin had taken another political line, they would have supported him all the same.

Actually, this is what is called "the Putin phenomenon": people trust him, but not institutions of power, which implement the president's policies. For example, a lot of citizens still believe that the State Duma deals with unnecessary matters. Only 9% of them are sure that the lower house works well, passing laws and decisions which are important for Russia. Only 8% think that the Federation Council is a useful state body; though both the Duma and the Senate are dominated by the presidential majority.

The Cabinet is luckier, because, firstly, Russians traditionally prefer the executive branch of power and, secondly, it is somehow associated with the Kremlin. But they do not place their hopes in the Cabinet, and the activity of the president in improving the economy is assessed as "not very successful". The major claims of the populations to the president come down to the following seven points: increasing prices, lack of social protection of people, unemployment, increase in criminality rates, absence of plan for overcoming the economic setback, corruption in the government and the war in Chechnya.

The security structures do not enjoy great popularity either. At that, when it was announced that several criminal cases had been started against several top-ranking officials, the rating of the General Prosecutor's Office has increased - almost a quarter of citizens decided that this is the beginning of the long-expected corruption campaign. And the overwhelming majority of Russians were sure that Ustinov was acting on Putin's orders. The rating of federal envoys is very low - around 33% (for comparison: the rating of governors is 55%), which proves that the idea of the president to tighten the hierarchy of power by dividing the country in seven federal districts did not quite come off.

As for the parties' ratings, they are very strange. The pro- presidential party Unity (or United Russia now) ranks only second, with less than 30%. Another "party of power" the Union of Right Forces has only 7%. And the leader of the list is the oppositional Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Perhaps, if Putin headed United Russia, which Shoigu, Luzhkov and Shaimiev hope for, they would win more supporters, but now we have what we have.

Obviously, the rating of trust toward the president will be decreasing. Hope for the better cannot last long. Especially since small incomes of people have stopped increasing by the end of the year. Average pension level has not reached the pre-crisis $50. The economy increase pace and production are slowing down. Low spirits have not reached the provinces yet, but a lot of analysts foresee a serious economic and political crisis. It is clear why it will be economic, and it will concern policies because the present power system has exhausted itself and cannot tackle the problems. Of course, the political system will be re-organized gradually, however, we will not escape enemies, which would be looked for in order to re-construct the power regime. For the time being, these enemies are not defined clearly - bureaucracy, corrupted civil servants. But as the crisis is drawing closer, their figures will be clearly cut, up to their surnames and positions. Especially since the preparations for the parliamentary and presidential elections have already started. And the rating of Putin and power structures will directly depend on real actions of the government, security structures and parties, supporting the president.

(Translated by Daria Brunova)

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