#3
Irish Times
December 27, 2001
Putin sees Chechnya advantage in support for war on terrorism -
Seamus Martin, International Editor, looks at the Russian President's political year
Irish Times; Dec 27, 2001

President Putin's suggestion that he might accept NATO's expansion to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was instantly greeted by some commentators as an important part of the international coalition-building process in the wake of the attacks on the United States on September 11th. It is not for nothing, however, that Russians are noted as the best chess players on earth. Hidden in the small print of Mr Putin's statement was the suggestion that NATO reform itself and become a political rather than military organisation.

If his proposal were to be accepted, NATO would have conformed to the long-term aims of Russia and it is to be assumed that Mr Putin's astute suggestion was made in the knowledge that while it would gain publicity for the Russian cause it would in the end be rejected by the United States which, after all, is the key component of the organisation.

When his offer was made it appeared that Mr Putin's plans were going well. While genuinely supporting the United States in its response to September 11th he, like many political leaders elsewhere, not least the British Prime minister, Mr Blair, saw that advantages could be gained for his national interest. Russia, it should be noted, has the largest Muslim population of any state in Europe. Islam has 20 million adherents in the Russian Federation, ranging from the militants of Chechnya to the milder and more pragmatic followers of Mr Mintimer Shaimiyev, the president of the autonomous republic of Tatarstan.

By allying himself to the coalition of international forces supporting the United States in its campaign against the Taliban rulership of Afghanistan and its backing for Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network Mr Putin had the opportunity to equate the attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington with the earlier bombing of apartment blocks in Moscow and Russian provincial centres, for which Chechen separatists have been blamed.

The opportunity was taken to equate President Bush's decisions to bomb the appallingly extremist Taliban regime in Afghanistan with his weapons of increasingly accurate advanced technology with President Putin's less discriminate efforts at bringing Chechnya to heel. The fact that Chechens have participated on the Taliban side in the Afghan war suggests, however, that Mr Putin's problems are far more complicated than those faced by Mr Bush, except in the important matter of publicity.

While Mr Bush must face the unpredictable attentions of an independent media, Mr Putin and his associates have, in the course of 2001, benefited from the removal of critical forces from Russia's major television networks. The end of NTV as an important focus of dissident opinion due to the exile of its former proprietor, Mr Vladimir Gusinsky, and its takeover by pro-Putin interests has been a major factor in ensuring that damage to Mr Putin's image at home has been limited.

This media dominance by the Kremlin could hardly have come at a better time. In recent days the decision by the Bush administration to abjure its commitment to the 1972 ABM (Anti Ballistic Missile) treaty in order to pursue its plans for a second 'Star Wars' programme has left Mr Putin open to severe criticism at home.

It is convenient, therefore, that this criticism is likely to be expressed mainly in the serious newspapers, whose circulation has been considerably diminished, in military circles and among liberal as well as national-bolshevik political circles.

There has already been pressure from military-industrial circles for Russia to increase its numbers of multi-warhead missiles as a response to Mr Bush's Star Wars proposals. Mr Putin has not yet clarified his own position but because of his media dominance he can, at least, avoid widespread condemnation as someone who is under American control.

Mr Putin also has the remarkable distinction of having presided over one of the very few economies to run contrary to the recessionary trends so evident elsewhere. Regarded for years as the sickest economy in Europe, Russia has showed itself to be distinct from the western economic cycle, though many believe this to have been due to the high price of oil which prevailed for most of the year.

Now oil prices are at their lowest for some time; America has shown that it is willing to impose its views on Russia in the area of nuclear weaponry and looming in the background is a burgeoning incidence of HIV-AIDS infection among the younger generations of the Russian Federation.

Mr Putin's pro-American actions in using his considerable influence on Afghanistan's neighbouring states of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well as his own very strong support of the Northern Alliance forces in Afghanistan itself may yet be seen by the Russian electorate as having been insufficiently rewarded. With the undoubted diminution of the free media in Russia, however, a less vigorous reaction is likely in 2002.

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