#8
Novye Izvestia
November 29, 2001
INDEPENDENCE IN DEPENDENCE
Reorientation of Russian oil exports to the US could create serious problems for Moscow
Author Vyacheslav Shiryaev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES DO NOT DEAL WITH THE UNITED STATES NOWADAYS. THEY MOSTLY OPERATE IN EUROPE. IT MEANS THAT REORIENTATION TOWARD THE UNITED STATES WILL COST THEM THEIR TRADITIONAL MARKETS, AS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED WHEN THE SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED.

Russia should think twice before becoming an oil supplier to America

The United States desperately needs stability of the global oil market and, naturally, low oil prices. Paradoxical as it may sound, it is the United States itself that is the major factor of destabilization in the market nowadays.

American users are number one global oil importer. The United States uses 27.8% all oil extracted worldwide. It follows therefore that any sneeze coming from America (be it a reduction or increase of oil reserves, be it a warm or too cold winter, to say nothing of the state of economy) has an immediate global effect. Absolutely all oil exporters feel it - from OPEC members to Mexico, Norway, and Russia. this is, however, a problem Washington prefers not to notice much less discuss.

The United States is worried much more about another problem, namely its dependence on oil from the Middle East. OPEC countries and Canada with Mexico (these latter two are not OPEC members) account for 74% all oil the United States imports. It is inevitable therefore that any military-political conflict in the region immediately affects prices and threatens with suspension of oil deliveries. Can Russia play the role of a kind of oil guarantor official Washington has been talking about? Unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future. Besides, this is not something that falls in line with Russia's national interests.

Russian oil companies do not deal with the United States nowadays. They mostly operate in Europe. It means that reorientation toward the United States will cost them their traditional markets, as has already happened when the Soviet Union collapsed. The federal program Energy Strategy of Russia until 2010 states that twenty years from now Russia will be extracting 27 million tons more than it did in 2000.

There is another problem here as well. Relations of political partnership never persuade the United States to slacken its harsh position with regard to what it considers its national interests and the need to defend them. Every OPEC decision to increase or cut production is made under pressure from Washington. As soon as Russia takes the place of OPEC and starts selling oil to America, it will immediately feel this pressure. Only time will tell who will eventually become dependent on whom.

BACK TO THE TOP    #182 CONTENTS    NEXT SECTION