#2
Moscow Times
November 29, 2001
Putin Serious About NATO
By Pavel Felgenhauer

When President Vladimir Putin visited the United States this month, he announced that "Russia will have as close a relationship with NATO, as the alliance is ready to have with us." Russian diplomatic sources say that during the summit with U.S. President George W. Bush, Putin not only made this far- reaching statement, but also complained that NATO Secretary General George Robertson is meeting Moscow's overtures with entirely empty declarations.

As Moscow moves closer to the West, there is a growing desire in some NATO capitals to reward Putin and support his pro-Western policies. Therefore, Moscow's complaints about NATO's intransigence were taken very seriously.

Officials in Washington and London suddenly understood that the Joint Permanent Russia-NATO Council known as "19+1" is in fact "19 against 1." NATO nations first establish a consolidated position on all issues and then collide with Russia, which is not allowed to take part in preliminary consultations.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair sent Robertson and all NATO nations a letter spelling out a proposal to create a new Russia-North Atlantic Council that would meet every two weeks or even more frequently. On a number of issues (yet to be defined), Russia would be invited to take part in NATO consensus-building discussions before a final decision is made. This would make Russia a NATO member nation in all but name and give it an effective veto on some issues.

If Blair's formula of engaging Russia with NATO is approved, and the bond between Moscow and the West continues to strengthen, the number of NATO issues Moscow is allowed to decide may also grow. In the not-too-distant future, Russian accession to the alliance may become no more than a formality.

Last week, as Robertson visited Moscow to clarify the details of closer cooperation, Putin announced that "Russia is not standing in line to join NATO." This was interpreted as postponing for the time being the immediate prospect of NATO expanding to Kamchatka. A great sigh of relief could be heard in many NATO capitals, above all in Warsaw. Military and nationalistic circles in Moscow that are against closer relations with the West were also somewhat relieved.

However, Kremlin and Russian diplomatic sources involved in negotiations with NATO interpret Putin's words differently: Russia wants to be in NATO as quickly as possible, but does not want to stand in line together with smaller former Communist nations. As a nuclear power occupying a large part of Eurasia, Russia believes it is a special case and should be treated differently from, say, Estonia. Moscow also wants to receive a special invitation from NATO before it makes a formal request to join so as not to be embarrassed by a rebuff.

Putin recently said, "it's also in our best interest to integrate Russia into the contemporary international community in every sense of the word, in defense, politically, and in security." Kremlin sources insist that Putin is serious, while diplomats believe they can take Moscow into NATO and also get full Article 5 guarantees that other members will help protect Russia's long, vulnerable Siberian borders against Chinese or Islamic threats from the east and south.

The current war against terrorism gave Moscow an opportunity to forge closer ties with the West despite Russia's weakness, its brutal and unsuccessful war in Chechnya, its undemocratic practices and its unreformed military. In Moscow many believe that in the coming years relations between China and the United States may reach boiling point over Taiwan, giving Russia another excellent opportunity to integrate fully with the West and enter NATO.

Last week, I visited Warsaw and NATO's Brussels headquarters. Polish officials who believed they had built a permanent firewall separating them from Russia by joining NATO are furious and are openly challenging Blair's initiative.

Russian diplomats in NATO, for their part, confirmed that Admiral Valentin Kuznetsov has been selected to become the new head of the Russian military mission to NATO. Kuznetsov is one of Russia's best military diplomats, has a good command of English and has made a career in arms control talks with Washington. Before Kuznetsov, Moscow appointed to NATO army generals who did not speak much English and were trained to lead tank assaults over the Rhine. Today, the time to negotiate in earnest has finally come and Moscow seems to be ready.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

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