#11
Asia Times
November 22, 2001
Post-Soviet groupings eye Central Asian security
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Moscow has long pledged that Russia prioritizes cooperation within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and other post-Soviet groupings, but without seeking domination within the group. However, a recent flurry of diplomatic activities in the Russian capital may suggest otherwise.

Notably, on Wednesday in Moscow the Kremlin held a meeting of defense ministers of the CIS and the Collective Security Treaty, also known under its Russian acronym DKB. CIS air defense integration has been the most advanced area of cooperation so far, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said. The defense ministers also discussed legal cooperation so as to combat terrorism.

Increased military cooperation between CIS countries, notably in the area of air defense, is "extremely important", Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the meeting with CIS defense ministers at the Kremlin. However, the Russian leader indicated that Moscow was not going to push its former Soviet brethren to form a military alliance. "Every CIS member-state determines its level of involvement in multilateral military coordination," Putin was quoted as saying by Russia's official RIA news agency.

Military policy coordination within the CIS "has played a serious and stabilizing role", Putin said. An outcome of the ongoing war on terrorism very much depends on military factors, Putin was quoted by RIA as saying.

All CIS member states, except Turkmenistan, attended the gathering. Turkmenistan's authoritarian leader President Saparmurad Niyazov has long pledged a policy of neutrality and has been reluctant to involve his sparsely populated country in military and political struggles around neighboring Afghanistan.

Moreover, on the eve of defense ministers' gathering, on November19 Moscow held DKB consultations in order to create a new unit in charge of regional security. Valery Nikolayenko, DKB secretary-general, has stated that security measures by the DKB helped to forestall the Taliban infiltration into Central Asia, notably Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Yet apart from military issues, a meeting of the so-called Eurasian Economic Commonwealth, or EEC, was also convened in Moscow earlier this week. The creation of the EEC came as an important move toward further post-Soviet integration, Viktor Khristenko, Russia's deputy prime minister and the country's chief official in charge of the EEC, told the gathering.

During a summit meeting of the CIS, held in the Belarus capital Minsk on May 31-June 1, one of the groups within the CIS (including Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) decided to turn their customs union into an EEC, aiming at freeing mutual trade. EEC presidents are due to meet at a first EEC summit in May 2002. The EEC is an open institution and other CIS states can join, the EEC secretary-general Grigory Rapota told the journalists in Moscow. Incidentally, in his previous capacity, Rapota served as Russia's top official in charge of arms exports.

No big wonder that the EEC meeting in Moscow discussed customs, border guard and tax control measures "with a backdrop of the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan".

Due to its economic might, Russia has more say in the Eurasian Commonwealth. Russia has a 40 percent vote in the EEC, Belarus and Kazakhstan - 20 percent each, while both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were given 10 percent each.

Former Soviet republics have long vowed to boost their economic cooperation. But the path from plans on paper to reality seems fraught with potholes and the proposed economic integration is a long way off. In 2000, the total trade turnover between all CIS states reached US$61 billion or up 32 percent compared to 1999. On the other hand, the total CIS investments in the Russian economy have reached a tiny 0.1 percent of all foreign investments in Russia so far.

It is understood that there are few economic dividends for Russia in closer ties with its mainly impoverished CIS partners, which owe Russia billions of dollars for oil and gas supplies.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, a long-time advocate of "Eurasian" integration, now serves as the ECC's chairman. However, in a grim reminder of regional volatility a talk of alleged assassination plots surfaced in the Kazakh capital. Notably, on Monday, Kazakh Prime Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev claimed that at least two plots to assassinate President Nazarbayev had been uncovered within the past three months. Tokayev used the allegations as a pretext to reshuffle his government.

The CIS - whose creation in 1991 sealed the fate of the collapsing Soviet Union - loosely groups 12 ex-Soviet republics, while the Eurasian Economic Commonwealth represents a core of countries that say they want closer integration. Separately, Russia and Belarus have also signed a treaty pledging even closer ties in the form of a union state, including the two former Soviet republics.

Moreover, Belarus could join a possible United Nations peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan, the country's foreign ministry spokesman Andrei Savinykh indicated at the weekend.

On the other hand, Moscow remains reluctant to become directly involved in Afghanistan. On Monday, Putin indicated Russia's readiness to help rescue US pilots in Afghanistan or Tajikistan, if necessary, simultaneously pointing out that Russian combat troops won't be sent to Afghanistan.

Yet despite official denials, Russia's State Duma, the Lower House of parliament, has initiated an official investigation into media speculation over the alleged hiring of Russia Afghan war veterans to serve in Afghanistan.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin has been keen to capitalize on its good relations with Afghan anti-Taliban movements, especially the Northern Alliance. "We had been supporting the Northern Alliance financially and militarily and it worked," Ivanov argued, referring to recent Taliban reverses.

On Monday, Russian special envoy in Kabul Alexander Oblov told Northern Alliance officials that Russia opposed any Taliban role in the future government "in any form". Afghan officials reportedly assured the Russian envoy that Afghanistan was moving toward a broad-based coalition government.

Consequently, the Kremlin closely follows Central Asian developments. On Monday, Putin had yet another round "regular telephone discussion" with his Tajik counterpart Emomali Rakhmonov relative to anti-terrorist operation and settlement efforts in Afghanistan.

Moreover, Russian and Chinese deputy foreign ministers are due to meet in Beijing later this month to discuss cooperation in the combat against terrorism, a first such bilateral meeting so far, Russian news wires reported. This working group was created in line with agreements reached last October between Putin and China's President Jiang Zemin in Shanghai.

In recent years there have been a number of post-Soviet integration initiatives in both economic and security areas, yet these efforts have hardly brought any meaningful results so far - at least in Central Asia. Hence, it remains to be seen whether these new post-Soviet groupings will prove viable vehicles for Moscow's policies in the region.

BACK TO THE TOP    #181 CONTENTS    NEXT SECTION