#9
strana.ru
October 11, 2001
Relations between Ukraine and Russia Are Going through the Most Crucial Trial
Russian press on TU-154 disaster
Yevgeny Yevdokimov, Strana.Ru observer

That Ukrainians were involved in the Russian Tu-154 air disaster over the Black Sea has been practically proven.

As the Russian media remarks, a situation has been created in relations between Russia and Ukraine that is fundamentally new. Journalists seem to agree that these relations are now going through the most crucial test since the Soviet Union fell apart ten years ago.

In Izvestia's opinion, the political elite of the two countries is also passing through a kind of civility test well. The daily holds that the scandal is only beginning to unwind. Nonetheless, certain conclusions can be drawn now.

The main thing for Russia is that right from the moment when news of the disaster appeared and the "Ukrainian connection" was considered to be the main cause, Moscow has been acting most tactfully, with restraint, almost benevolently in respect to Kiev. The Kremlin has been displaying obvious empathy towards a neighbor that has found itself in hot water. The Kremlin is not giving in to the temptation to catch Kiev lying publicly, in front of the whole world. Time will pass and the Ukrainians may probably appreciate such fastidiousness. Not everyone in Kiev (or in Moscow for that matter) had expected such tact.

Analysts see the Kremlin's behavior in the given situation as the best argument in the dispute with those Ukrainian politicians who still fear "Russia's aspirations for revenge" and "empire-building ambitions."

Vremya Novostei writes that Kiev still hopes to prove that the Ukrainian military had nothing to do with the air disaster. However, if it is proven that Ukraine is responsible for the death of almost 100 people, the Ukrainian Parliament will demand the dismissal of all the officials that had a hand in organizing the military exercises in the Crimea, including those at the top echelons of power. Deputy Sergei Terekhin made a statement to this effect in an interview with Vremya Novostei.

The newspaper even offers a "black list" of Ukrainian leaders that may get the boot. Heading this list is Defense Minister Nikolai Kuzmuk and the commander in chief of the republic's Air Defense system, Vladimir Tkachev.

Certain pundits of Russian-Ukrainian relation believe that Moscow will not miss the chance to take advantage of Kiev's blunders and will try to regain its status of "guarantor of security" in the post-Soviet region.

Ukrainian politicians fear that this may result in prolonging the stay of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea for an indefinite period of time. They also fear that this will lead to attempts to drag Ukraine into new military-political alliances with Russia.

In reply, their opponents maintain that a scenario purporting that Ukraine may find itself dependent on Moscow on the basis of a single incident is "laying it on too thick."

In its commentary, Izvestia believes that Moscow will not demand too much from Kiev, only that it admit its guilt, repent and promise compensation for the damage incurred. It is important that they do not simply promise (for Ukrainian politicians are fond of making promises), but really pay up.

At the same time, Vedomosti points out that even if Ukraine manages to get off with an apology for the air disaster, other no less serious pretexts for complaints may be found. Moscow and Kiev have many political and economic problems that have not yet been completely thrashed out.

Cynical as it may sound, Ukraine's admission of its guilt may have a favorable impact on Russia's airline market, the newspaper writes. Analysts forecast at least a 5% growth in this market next year, and this on the backdrop of an almost one-third drop in the U. S. market.

The version that a Ukrainian missile downed the Russian airliner seems to have satisfied everyone in the end, no matter how horrendous it looked from the very beginning. Everyone, of course, means Russian and Ukrainian officials, politicians, the military, the airlines and insurers.

Russia has made it clearly understood to Ukraine that if it admits its military shot down the airliner, it may get away with only making profound apologies.

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