#7
BBC Monitoring
TV says USA, Russia playing geostrategic game in Afghanistan, Central Asia
Source: Ren TV, Moscow, in Russian 1500 gmt 11 Oct 01

Russian TV commentator Olga Romanova has said that the USA is using the current Afghanistan crisis to try to remove Russian influence over the geostrategically important Central Asian region. She said the real purpose of an upcoming US-British ground operation in Afghanistan was to create a new regime there and to cause refugees to spill into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan where - in combination with drug barons and fundamentalists - they would soon dislodge pro-Russian administrations . The USA also sought to gain control over the oil route through Asia from the Caspian. Russia, whatever its officials said, had secretly been backing Northern Alliance forces in Afghanistan since the mid-1990s. The following is the text of the comment broadcast by Russian Ren TV on 11 October:

[Olga Romanova] Judging by all the indications, US and British military units will enter Afghanistan in the next few hours. Right now it is fairly difficult to guess what they will do there other than engage in pinpoint attacks. The most immediate result of the ground operation probably will be the overthrow of the Taleban regime and the formation of an Afghan coalition government which also will include Taleban people. That is to say that the Taleban people at whom the Americans will be shooting are bad Taleban and the Taleban people who will be included in the [new] Afghan government are good Taleban people.

Bin-Ladin a pawn in a bigger geopolitical game

The long-term economic and geopolitical interests of America in Central Asia are much more important for the United States than the head of Usamah Bin-Ladin. The latter is just a pawn in a big game; he is some kind of human explosive. The US National Intelligence Service recently prepared a report entitled: global trends up to the year 2015. The report says and I quote from it: The greatest increase in demand for energy products is expected to be in Asia, especially China and India, which means North America will be dislodged from the position of the main consumer. By 2015 only one-tenth of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf region will go to the Western market.

Of course, the Americans will not agree to tightening their belts and to cutting their consumption of energy. What if not this is a cause for a small and victorious war?

[Female Correspondent] By fighting in Afghanistan, the USA is seeking not only the annihilation of Usamah Bin-Ladin and the terrorist organization al-Qa'ida. The experts believe that long-term geostrategic interests in Central Asia are much more important for the USA.

Iran and Iraq, which possess large reserves of oil and gas, have left American influence for an indefinite period of time. After the first strikes on Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic relations with America. For a long time, that state with most major reserves of energy products was a raw material base for the USA. For this reason, the energy resources of the Caspian Sea basin have become all the more important. But oil from that region only reaches the world market via Russia. The US company Unocal already started building a pipeline which will mean Uzbek oil will bypass Russia via Turkmenistan and Afghanistan and arrive in the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gwadar. But this project had to be mothballed until such times as peace and stability arrives in Afghanistan and a [new] government formed there is recognized by the United Nations and the USA. [graphic: map of the Gulf/Central Asia region.]

Russia, USA vying for influence in Central Asia

[Romanova] The Central Asian republics - I refer to former USSR republics - seem to be quite satisfied with this turn of events. And why not? Girls, even in the East, always enjoy a situation where two enviable suitors suffer for you, court you, and fight each other for you. In this case, we have Russian and American suitors. The Central Asian republics already have been on dates with the Russian suitor. Now they want to try dating the American suitor. At the same time, they have no intention of letting the Russian suitor go.

Uzbek President Islam Karimov, for instance, refused even to have talks about supplies to Uzbekistan of contemporary Western arms. This refusal is understandable: the Uzbek army is accustomed to simple and good-quality Russian weapons. Moreover, if one is to believe Western media reports, Karimov managed to wring out of President Vladimir Putin fresh deliveries of Russian arms at a good price. Uzbekistan has no money so it was decided to exchange raisins and nuts for guns. The Americans now have proposed to Uzbekistan taking upon themselves the task of paying for the latest Russian arms deliveries: Uncle Sam will pick up the tab. US newspapers say the supplies are: two MiGs, three helicopters, a transport plane, artillery shells and Kalashnikovs with cartridges. True, the New York Times - which today published a large article about the wild Central Asian republics and the clans inhabiting them - says that certain mighty Central Asian clans may not take to the American suitor.

[Male correspondent, quoting from New York Times] The population of the former Soviet Central Asian republics will not automatically follow their presidents' bidding and may protest sharply against the rapprochement with America.

Russia secretly helping Taleban enemies in Afghanistan since 1996

[Romanova] All the indications are that Russian politicians and military people are not slumbering. For example, unofficial and as yet unconfirmed reports say that men from the special detachments of the airborne troops and from the Main Intelligence Administration of the General Staff have been sent to join our 201st division in Tajikistan.

Of course, the situation in Central Asia is completely and utterly connected with events in Afghanistan. The Americans are not preparing to settle in the Afghan hills for centuries to come. Therefore, there is a theory that they will attempt to set off a mighty outflow of refugees in the northerly direction to Central Asia where UN refugee camps would then be established, just as in Pakistan and particularly in Macedonia. These refugees in combination with local drug trafficking criminals and fundamentalist structures will become the bosses rather than guests, after which not a trace will be left of Russian influence.

But I seem to recall that the Russian Defence Ministry keeps on saying that there can be no talk of a Russian military presence in Afghanistan.

[Pavel Felgengauer, captioned as independent military expert] In effect, Russia has been participating in the war in Afghanistan since 1996 when we starting giving support on the quiet to the Northern Alliance. And we have advisors and airmen there. Our warplanes from time to time have bombed the Taleban. Even if Defence Minister Sergey Ivanov yesterday declared publicly to the Federation Council that they [the Northern Alliance] do not need our advisors, that of course is nonsense because just recently 200 pieces of heavy materiel - and maybe more - were supplied. I mean tanks, APCs, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Grad missile systems, and artillery pieces. How else is it that the Northern Alliance - and, of course, they are mobilizing the peasants - will find experts to use all of this materiel?

[Romanova] It is a longstanding tradition of ours secretly to send arms and military advisors. The Americans in this sense are much more forthright: they take and give Tajikistan 3m dollars to fight the drought, after which Tajikistan offers the USA use of its airfields. Back in our country news agencies report that the [still not completed] ice palace in Yaroslavl [which was meant to co-host the 2000 world hockey championship] cost 74m dollars. That money could have been used for more than fighting droughts and in more than just Tajikistan.

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