#12
BBC Monitoring
Russian daily says Taleban a threat to Pakistan, Uzbekistan
Source: Izvestiya, Moscow, in Russian 11 Oct 01

The influential Russian daily Izvestiya has warned Russia that its geopolitical interests could be at risk if developments in Afghanistan take a dramatic turn. The daily goes on to warn about the dangers which Pakistan's nuclear bombs could pose to the region as a whole in view of the instability which could reign following a Taleban fall. Subheadings have been inserted editorially. The following is the text of report by Russian newspaper Izvestiya on 11 October:

Russia's geopolitical interests at risk

Yesterday morning [10 October], the TV news started carrying a report about a Taleban offensive against Pakistani territory; that report then went off the air. But it was merely a warning of a possibly dramatic development of events - the world adjoining Afghanistan stands on the brink of a major redivision which can only be stopped through extraordinary actions by diplomats and the military. Otherwise events will develop on the basis of a negative scenario, which will directly affect Russia's geopolitical interests.

It would seem that for the time being there is no particular reason to be afraid - according to statements made by representatives of the Northern Alliance, 1,800 members of the Taleban have surrendered in the past 24 hours. Others are fleeing to Pakistan - and Western news agencies report that there was a two-hour firefight on the Afghan-Pakistani border. Thirty of the Taleban were stopped by Pakistani border guards - clearly, that attempt by a handful of people was seen by the TV as the start of an offensive.

Moreover, yesterday's Taleban statement about the removal of "all restrictions on the movements of Usamah Bin-Ladin", however threatening its form, essentially changes nothing. Izvestiya's source at the Russian Foreign Ministry is confident that "for some time now it has not been the Taleban controlling the actions of Bin-Ladin, but the Saudi millionaire who has been dictating his ground rules to the Taleban". All of this is probably no more than a desperate propaganda stunt on the part of the former madrasah students.

Greater Pashtunistan haunts Pakistan

Nonetheless, it is no accident that Islamabad has been reacting so painfully and intensely to all of these pinpricks - the Pakistani elite discerns behind these small tremors the rumbling of an impending earthquake. Pakistani President General Musharraf is most worried about Taleban radicals infiltrating areas where the Pashtun population predominates. The spectre of a "Greater Pashtunistan" uniting Pashtuns on both sides of the border has haunted the country's rulers for more than 10 years. The Taleban would be incredibly stupid if they did not attempt to play the "Pashtun card", which could threaten in the future to bring down the country that had until recently so selflessly supported them. Unfortunately, we cannot count on their stupidity.

All the more so as they, just like the al-Qa'idah gunmen, do not necessarily need to seize power in Pakistan; they need only gain access to nuclear weapons. According to certain information, Islamabad has 30-50 nuclear bombs. And there are a lot of Taleban sympathizers among the Pakistani military, particularly at the "lower levels" of the hierarchy. The reshuffle recently undertaken by Pakistani President Gen Musharraf within the "power structures" will not solve the problem - it is far harder to control the junior officer corps than it is to control the General Staff.

Moreover, the structure of Pakistani society is such that the elite, which has been educated in and is geared to secular values, has no real support within society. It is awfully far removed from the people - and it is only for that reason that the Western community can do business with it. The paradox of the situation is that America is bound to oppose democratic aspirations among citizens of Islamic countries - without relying on authoritarian regimes able to ignore aggressive publics, the incipient operation has no chance at all of succeeding.

Playing with fire

Something similar is also happening on the northern outskirts of Afghanistan; in a recent interview it was no accident that Uzbek President Islam Karimov (the only leader of a post-Soviet country who has decided to provide his territory for deployments by the US military) struck an almost hysterical note. He cannot fail to assist America - the secular regimes of Central Asia, being, as they are, very far removed from the norms of "enduring freedom", cannot now get by without its protection. And, at the same time, he realizes that he is taking an incredible risk, that the peace and quiet that have prevailed at the top levels of Uzbek politics are merely a sumptuous cover for dormant conflicts that could come to life if the Taleban were to respond to the "betrayal" of the cause of world Islamization by striking back.

Despite the fact that Islamabad, Tashkent, and Washington are currently on the same side of the front, it is still not known how everything will ultimately turn out. America will have to offer Musharraf and Karimov a lot of tempting carrots to keep them on the side of the fight against terrorism. It would be no bad thing for Russia to store up some presents of its own either. Because Pakistan is far away, but nuclear weapons are always nearby. And it is just a stone's throw to Uzbekistan.

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