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Putin gambles on support for US action in Russia's back yard
MOSCOW, Oct 11 (AFP) -
President Vladimir Putin has taken a major gamble with Russia's foreign
policy in Central Asia, known as its "near abroad," by giving unprecedented
support to US military action on Afghanistan, analysts warned Thursday.
Putin won international plaudits following last month's attacks in New York
and Washington for his landmark speech of September 24 aligning Russia with
the United States in the fight against terrorism.
But caution has marked domestic reaction, with many Russian lawmakers and
commentators warning Putin not to risk the inevitable weakening of Moscow's
influence in Central Asia that would result from US "mission creep" in the
region.
Others lament the passing of Russia's so-called "third way" in foreign policy
-- Putin's bid to forge a partnership with western Europe as a counterbalance
to the United States, the world's only remaining superpower.
"President Putin made a courageous choice on September 24 in renouncing the
the myth of the third way for his country, but Russia risks getting embroiled
in a number of problems," argues Dmitry Trenin of Moscow's Carnegie Centre.
Russia has ruled out direct involvement in the US-led military attacks on
Afghanistan's ruling Taliban, concentrating its efforts on the humanitarian
effort.
But the influential Communist speaker of the State Duma Gennady Seleznyov
warned earlier this week that Russian troops could be sucked into the
conflict by a mass exodus of refugees from Afghanistan to the former Soviet
republics, particularly Tajikistan.
Russia already has 7,000 soldiers stationed in the impoverished republic, as
well as 11,000 border guards patrolling the 1,200-kilometre (800-mile) border
with Afghanistan under a 1992 agreement between Moscow and Dushanbe.
However, pro-Kremlin deputy Vladislav Reznik said Wednesday, after returning
from a visit to Tajikistan, that Russian forces were ill-equipped to repel a
concerted attack by Taliban militia.
"The communications systems used by the border troops date from the 1960s and
1970s. They don't have tanks, they don't have any fuel," Reznik added.
The Taliban were reported Thursday to have deployed 10,000 troops on the
Uzbekistan border after threatening to carry out reprisal attacks on Central
Asian neighbours who support the United States in its campaign against Saudi
dissident Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist network.
Putin is under pressure "to prove the West is making concessions" -- on debt
repayment, missile defence and Russia's wish to join the World Trade
Organisation -- in return for "unilaterally" backing the United States,
Trenin says.
"The Americans have been interested in Central Asia for a long time. Now the
fight against terrorism has given them a perfect pretext to get a foot in the
region," said Vladimir Kumachev, of the Institute of World Economy and
International Relations.
Russia has begun to deliver up to 45 million dollars worth of arms, including
Soviet-era T-55 tanks, combat vehicles, small arms and ammunition, to the
anti-Taliban forces of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.
Moscow has sought to exploit the international struggle against Afghan-based
terrorists to whip up Western support for Russia's two-year "anti-terrorist"
war against Islamic separatists in Chechnya.
However, Putin faces a complex balancing act if his unprecedented support for
the US-led coalition is not to jeopardise Russia's longstanding partnerships
in the Islamic world, particularly with Iran and Iraq.
