#1
High-level US team to Russia for Afghan talks after terror strikes

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (AFP) -
The United States said Thursday it would send its number-two diplomat to Russia next week for talks on Afghanistan as it considers retaliating against terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage is to meet Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov to discuss Afghan policy next Wednesday before heading to Brussels on Thursday for consultations with NATO allies and other European officials, the department said.

The hastily arranged meetings were set up as Washington builds a global consensus for a military response to the strikes on the World Trade Center and Pentagon that US officials suspect may be linked to exiled Saudi militant Osama bin Laden, who lives in Afghanistan as a guest of the country's ruling Taliban militia.

Since Tuesday's attacks, the United States and Russia, both members of the UN's so-called "Six plus Two" working group on Afghanistan, have said they will step up their counter-terrorism cooperation and coordination.

Russia has deep concerns about terrorism resulting from a series of deadly bomb blasts in Moscow that it has blamed on separatist rebels from the breakaway republic of Chechnya.

Earlier Thursday in Brussels, NATO and Russia agreed at a special meeting of their permanent joint council to "intensify" efforts against terrorism and called on the international community "to unite" against it.

In a joint statement, NATO and Russia -- adversaries throughout the Cold War -- expressed "anger and indignation over the barbarous acts committed against the people of the United States of America."

NATO on Wednesday took the unprecedented decision to consider the strikes attacks on the entire alliance if it is determined that the attacks were planned outside the United States.

That move puts the allies in a position to automatically support -- but not necessarily participate in -- any US military action against the alleged perpetrators of the attacks.

Armitage will be accompanied by Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Elizabeth Jones, the State Department said.

The pair had been scheduled to travel to Turkey on September 18 but that visit has been postponed, it said.

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#2
Moscow Times
September 13, 2001
Stunned Russians Open Hearts in Sympathy
By Oksana Yablokova
Staff Writer

Scores of sympathetic Muscovites came Wednesday to the U.S. Embassy to lay flowers and pay respects to the victims of the devastating terrorist attacks in the United States and to wonder out loud whether the world would ever be the same.

A carpet of flowers and lit candles covered the sidewalk outside the embassy building -- which, just two years ago, was pelted with eggs and tomatoes by angry demonstrators protesting against U.S. airstrikes of Yugoslavia.

President Vladimir Putin was one of the first world leaders to offer condolences to Washington, and he ordered a minute of silence at noon Thursday to mourn what will likely turn out to be thousands of lives.

Throughout the day, more and more people were drawn to the embassy, many of them tearful, with bouquets, candles and messages of grief and support.

Besides flowers -- which were laid in even numbers according to the Russian tradition of honoring the dead -- some left icons and notes. "We pray for you, and we want to help," read a note stuck to the fence.

Many of those who came out Wednesday said stopping by the embassy was the only thing they could do to express their support to people in grief, regardless of nationality.

"We take it so close to heart because we all know what it is," said Valentina Nikitina, 59, an economist, alluding to the 1999 apartment bombings that claimed the lives of some 300 people across Russia.

"Points of contention between the United States and Russia seem like minor disputes between neighbors that fade in the face of such great sorrow, which unites people," she said.

Faina Faifman, who left a bouquet of white roses, said she came to protest the "inhumane reaction" she saw in television footage of Palestinian children and women celebrating.

"Whenever I visited the U.S., I always had a feeling of peace that I never had at home," Faifman said.

Now, she and others said, the attacks have shown that even a superpower like the United States proved vulnerable in the face of terrorism.

"We [Russians] are accustomed to surviving in all kinds of situations, but in the U.S. people know from childhood that they are safe. ... These attacks have brought an end to the old carefree America," said Irina Aivazyan, a designer.

In a statement, U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow thanked "countless ordinary Russian citizens for their outpouring of sympathy."

But not all those who passed the embassy Wednesday shared these sentiments.

A woman wearing construction overalls spat demonstratively as she walked by, and Russian television reported that several people near the embassy Tuesday night shouted that the attack served the United States right "for bombing Belgrade."

Others took the opportunity to issue a blanket condemnation of Islam.

The Izvestia daily wrote: "A war between civilizations has begun. A war of Allah against Jesus, the poor against the rich, barbarians versus the civilized world. ... From now on terrorism is a way of establishing the world order -- in the name of Allah, which has now acquired a whole new meaning."

The local press was filled with banner headlines screaming of apocalypse, as average citizens worried about the global ramifications of the attack.

"My first thought was: What is the U.S. going to do now? Is this the beginning of World War III?" said an anxious Irina Zavenyan, 28.

"Vengeance is a very bad adviser," said Nikolai Levitsky, a 57-year-old physicist. "I only hope and pray that President [George W.] Bush will have enough common sense to react adequately."

"Whoever was behind this," Zavenyan said, "the U.S., so confident of its invulnerability and superiority, was taught a lesson -- the cruelest ever in history."

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#3
Vremya Novostei
No. 167
September 13, 2001
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
HOW WILL THE US TRAGEDY AFFECT RUSSIA'S POLICY?

Gleb PAVLOVSKY, Effective Policy Foundation:

The tragic events in the USA show that the world is changing beyond recognition, along with the concept of the world scene and world order. The USA can no longer be regarded as the sole guarantor of world order. The USA has joined Russia in that Americans are ordinary people and will now understand some of our problems. This will create additional possibilities for cooperation, with less arrogance and more collaboration with Russia.

Now we will be able to discuss the security problems that had been previously discussed only within military unions. The concept of such unions as the basis of international security is crumbling, too. NATO is certainly a strong and intimidating organisation, but it turned out that it is not effective enough for combating new level threats. The design of the successful terrorist attack undertaken in the centre of security and stability of the world order says that the leaders of that order are not competent enough.

The main goal of the terrorists was not the Pentagon or the World Trade Centre, but influence on the mass consciousness. The terrorists had two audiences - the American one, which was not the main audience but was used to relay panic, and the audience of the developing countries. The terrorists staged that performance for the developing, poor countries in perfect knowledge of their reaction - from open admiration to secret pleasure.

In this situation Russia should carefully analyse the concept of national security, with due consideration for the new weapons that can be used against it, among other countries. I don't think these events will affect the domestic Russian policy, which is rather shallow now and lacks a concept. The immediate reaction of Russian politicians was so provincial and predictable that they can be compared to the reaction of American politicians.

Andrei RYABOV, Moscow Office of the Carnegie Foundation:

I am not sure there will be radical changes in Russia. The economic situation will not deteriorate despite the great dollar influence on it. And Russia's stand on Chechnya will not change either. One can assume that the ideas of peace talks with the terrorists will be discarded for some time. The vital element of this situation, as I see it, will be the potential change of the Russian attitude to the US NMD system. The more so that it has become apparent today that such complicated systems failed to protect the US population.

President Bush will find it more difficult to advocate the NMD idea. I don't see anything that could change the situation in Russia's internal policy. I think rumours about a potential review of the budget to increase defence spending are greatly exaggerated. However, the events in the USA can speed up the military reform in Russia.

Boris MAKARENKO, Centre of Political Technologies:

The world will suffer from the shock created by the US tragedy and hence it is apparent that its influence on Russia will be a part of the global context. I would like to hope that the West will respect Russia more and will see it as an equitable and more serious partner. In particular during the discussion of what can be done about this and how such catastrophes can be prevented. Objectively, these events can raise Russia's role in the tackling of international problems. However, it would be premature to say exactly what form this may take. On the other hand, the US tragedy will hardly engender any major events in the internal state policy of Russia. At least nothing global will happen in Russia.

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#4
The Guardian (UK)
13 September 2001
Russia and Nato unite against international terror
Moscow has offered the US full intelligence cooperation over Islamic terrorists and the Taliban regime following Tuesday's attacks
By Ian Traynor

The advent in New York of a new era of super-terrorism has brought swift pledges from Russia of full intelligence cooperation with the US on combating international terrorism and more ambitious calls from Moscow to establish a new international anti-terrorism body. In a rare joint statement today, Russia and Nato, at loggerheads over the Kosovo war only two years ago, announced they were "united in their resolve not to let those responsible for such an inhuman act go unpunished".

President Vladimir Putin, who has spoken at least twice to George Bush since the US attacks, described the tragedy as a crime against all humanity and stated that the US and Russia "share a common foe, the common foe is international terrorism".

A senior US official is expected in Moscow within days to glean Russian intelligence on Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. Richard Armitage, the US deputy secretary of state, should arrive in Moscow this weekend amid unprecedented offers of intelligence-sharing and partnership from the Russia.

The Russians are alarmed at the spread of Islamic terror on their southern rim and blame the secessionist insurgency in Chechnya on Islamic radicals, some of them allegedly trained, funded, or equipped by Bin Laden.

The Russians are as hostile towards and fearful of the Taliban in Afghanistan as any western state and have a robust intelligence operation as well as thousands of troops and border guards stationed in the ex-Soviet republic of Tajikistan bordering Afghanistan.

Moscow secretly offered the Americans the use of its bases in Tajikistan last year for a purported attack on Bin Laden, according to the military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, writing in today's Moscow Times.

There are 10,000 Russian border troops strung out along the 750-mile Tajik-Afghan border, plus another Russian army division estimated at around 15,000 men at three bases in Tajikistan.

According to the Izvestiya newspaper, Russian foreign intelligence has already told the CIA that at least two of the hijackers were Uzbek Islamic militants aligned with the Taliban and Bin Laden.

Citing a Russian foreign intelligence officer, the newspaper said the information was based on phone intercepts and included the tip that the coalition of Islamic extremists based around Afghanistan has 400 potential kamikaze attackers within its ranks.

The Russians are believed to have plenty to divulge on Bin Laden and the Taliban since their forces are patrolling the Tajik-Afghan border, and the Afghan heroin routes perceived as crucial to Bin Laden's treasure chest pass through Russia and ex-Soviet central Asia. More than 600kg of heroin have passed from Afghanistan into Tajikistan in the past fortnight, said a Russian border guards spokesman yesterday.

The history of Soviet invasion of, control of and then war in Afghanistan in the 1980s has bequeathed the Russians an intimate knowledge of the country. Moscow is also acutely sensitive to issues of Islamic extremism, not least because Russia is home to more than 20m indigenous Muslims.

The Russians are alarmed that the reported assassination of the Afghan Northern Alliance opposition commander, Ahmed Shah Masood, last Sunday clears the way for Taliban militants to encroach on the border with ex-Soviet Tajikistan.

A Russian general told the armed forces newspaper, Krasnaya Zvezda, yesterday that the Taliban, in cahoots with Uzbek Islamic militants whose stronghold is Uzbekistan's Fergana Valley, were closing on the Tajik border.

Russian military sources told the Interfax news agency that an emergency meeting of security officials from Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and India is to be held in Dushanbe, the Tajik capital, to discuss how to isolate and undermine the Taliban regime.

In a rare public statement, Sergei Lebedev, Russia's foreign spy chief, told the Tass news agency that his service was working closely with US, European, and Middle Eastern intelligence services and that the US attacks had "proved the global nature of the threat of international terrorism and the need for joint action to prevent it".

The domestic security service (FSB) announced that it was investigating the US attacks and pledged that "any significant information will immediately be turned over to our colleagues in Washington".

But the FSB spokesman, Alexander Zdanovich, complained that the US and the Russians had diverging views on how to deal with terrorists. "When we discussed the problems of international terrorism with our American colleagues, we found common approaches. But sadly when it came to actual operations against extremist terrorist organisations, the approaches were rather different".

Mr Putin has spoken twice to George Bush since the tragedy. His foreign minister, Igor Ivanov, called for the establishment of a new international body dedicated to combating international terrorism.

The new US ambassador in Moscow, Alexander Vershbow, agreed that the New York disaster would generate greater US-Russian intelligence cooperation, but he stressed that that did not mean US endorsement of the Kremlin's war policy in Chechnya.

While holding out the hand of friendship and cooperation to the US, Mr Putin is also hoping to gain the upper hand on two key points as a result of the tragedy - greater western tolerance of his Chechnya policy and a stronger case against the US missile defence plans.

"We have reason to believe that Bin Laden's people are connected with the events now taking place in Chechnya", Mr Putin stated on national television.

"We know his people are present there. Our American partners cannot but be concerned about this circumstance."

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#5
Christian Science Monitor
13 September 2001
Russia sees new ally against terrorists
By Scott Peterson
Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor

MOSCOW - As Russian citizens tearfully leave flowers and condolence notes in front of the American Embassy in Moscow, their acts of solidarity are underlining how a new US-Russian relationship may be forged in the aftermath of Tuesday's terrorist attacks. Urban terrorism is now a common bond between the two former cold warriors. A string of 1999 apartment block bombings in Russia, which the Kremlin blamed on Chechen separatists, without producing evidence, killed over 300.

Moscow now feels that its repeated warnings of a growing Islamic threat emerging from Central Asia and the Caucasus - and pleas for Western support - are finally being heard in Washington. Some here are suggesting that joint action in crafting a military response may follow.

But a changed dynamic could go either way, analysts warn. The tragedy may help forge a new working relationship, that focuses on sharing intelligence and maybe other assets to fight terrorism. Or President Bush may deepen unilateralist thinking on key strategic issues, shutting Russia and others out of US plans.

The world "must unite in the struggle with terrorism," Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a brief televised address here after the attacks,

"This is the beginning of a new era, in which states are not initiators of war, but targets," says Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace Moscow center. Now "objectively, the US, Israel, and Russia are on the same side." Still, he says, "Many [contentious US-Russia] issues remain on the table."

Defense chief SergeI Ivanov has offered to share any intelligence gathered by Russia that may surface about the culprit. One top suspect, US officials say, is Osama bin Laden, who runs a global network of militant cells from hideouts in Afghanistan.

Any American military strike against targets in the 90 percent of that country controlled by the Islamic Taliban militia, analysts say, must take into account that Russia already has 10,000 troops facing Afghanistan's northern border, in the ex-Soviet republic of Tajikistan.

In August last year, a bin Laden aide seemed to confirm Russian fears, saying that 400 Arab and Afghan fighters had been sent by bin Laden to join separatist guerrillas in Chechnya, a largely Muslim Russian republic.

One card played by Russia - that could be played by the US also, analysts speculate, is providing weapons and adviser support for the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Masood. This option is now complicated by conflicting reports that Mr. Masood may have been killed Sunday.

But issues that have strained recent US-Russia ties, analysts say - from US missile defense proposals, to arms-control treaties and NATO enlargement, to Russian atrocities in Chechnya - still remain. And analysts say the nature of the attack - commercial aircraft being used against American cities, instead of ballistic missiles sent by a "rogue state" - is sure to figure in Russian protests against President Bush's missile-defense shield plans.

"Before [Tuesday], the US believed that a missile defense system was the main guarantee to protect American territory," says Yuri Gladkevich, of the Interfax-Military News Agency. "Now it is obvious that the main threat is not created by, for example, Iranian missile arsenals."

If the focus becomes Afghanistan, room for cooperation is wide, and could focus on Russian technical support for US cruise missile strikes on suspected bin Laden strongholds - the path President Clinton chose, but without Russian help, in 1998 after the two Embassy bombings in Africa.

"Russia is not almighty now, but it is one of the few countries possessing real anti-terrorism experience," Mr. Gladkevich says.

Intelligence services could be brought into the picture also, to share information about militant groups. Just as the CIA played a key role in training mujahideen like Mr. bin Laden, to repel the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, Baev says, so KGB archives might reveal similar KGB creations like bin Laden who today "might very well be on the same team."

Hurdles to cooperation are high, however, because of cold war baggage. Not even NATO allies share their best intelligence. One reason: Past leaks have partly compromised some NATO operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Serbia. "There is a lot of common ground for the intelligence and security communities, but both countries need to stop treating each other as their main adversary," says Mr. Trenin.

"It is important to avoid any simplistic responses" because "there are many bin Ladens," says Vitaly Naumkin, head of Moscow's Center for Strategic and Political studies. Citing "terrorist centers" in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and "many places," he says there will be "pressure for some sort of joint military operation ... but I doubt that would be a constructive response.

"Kill bin Laden, and you just make a martyr of him," says Mr. Naumkin. "The root problem lies in the relations between the West and poor countries in an increasingly globalized world."

"My worry is that this act may push Bush toward his instinctive unilateralism," says Baev. "After the first waves of sympathy and vows to cooperate, in the longer term it might make the US go its own way, pushing its own agenda.... It might shape the strategy in a way that Russia may find difficult to deal with."

Fred Weir in Moscow contributed to this report.

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#6
Moscow Times
September 13, 2001
Foul, Foul Weather Friends
By Pavel Felgenhauer

The unthinkable has happened in New York and the carnage -- comparable with the aftermath of a nuclear attack -- may prompt the United States to respond in unthinkable ways.

The main target of U.S. wrath is obvious: The Saudi dissident millionaire Osama bin Laden who has for several years taken refuge in Afghanistan. In public statements he has threatened to attack not only U.S. military and government targets, but also civilians. In a 1997 interview with CNN, he said: "Regarding the American people, they are not exonerated from responsibility because they chose this government and voted for it despite their knowledge of its crimes in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq and other places." In the same interview he mentioned the U.S. nuclear attacks on Japan in 1945 as an unpunished crime.

In retrospect a terrorist air attack is not as unlikely as it seems. It's easy to hijack a civilian U.S. airplane simply by threatening to use arms and explosives, without necessarily actually having any. Airport metal detectors are not of much use as American and European pilots are trained to obey orders from hijackers to save innocent passengers' lives.

The only issue that would require serious organizational preparation is training suicide bombers to fly the planes once the pilots have been overpowered. Many civilian commercial pilots are trained each year, including pilots from Third World countries, to fly for their countries' airlines. With bin Laden's money and connections in the Moslem world it would probably not be impossible for him to slip several of his men in.

Then the only problem would be to book tickets. It's significant that all the hijacked planes were on internal flights, boarding for which does not involve passport or any other serious identity checks. So all the hijackers could get airborne at approximately the same time.

The attacks were a peculiar combination of "regular" air terrorism and the tactics of Japanese suicide pilots who slammed their planes into U.S. warships during World War II.

This tactic caught the security services off guard, but next time they will certainly be ready. U.S. authorities have already declared no-fly zones near big cities, nuclear power stations and other high-risk targets. The United States has air defense missiles, fighters and radars to control the skies and impose such restrictions. It is also possible that armed guards may be put on civilian planes as the Israelis have been doing for years.

In 1983, a Russian fighter shot down a South Korean Boeing 747 that strayed into Soviet air space. The destruction of the aircraft carrying passengers was condemned by the international community. However, today the United States might be prepared to shoot down its own civilian planes if they stray off course.

America is clearly on a war footing, and retaliatory action is imminent. In August 1998, it attacked targets in Afghanistan and Sudan less than two weeks after terrorist bomb attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

On that occasion bin Laden escaped unharmed because cruise missiles with conventional warheads were powerless to destroy reinforced underground bunkers. During the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, bin Laden engineered the construction of large underground bunkers that could withstand direct hits from the Soviet air force. Today, he is probably sitting in one of these shelters.

When the United States strikes again it will surely use more firepower than it did in 1998. Bin Laden may or may not be guilty, but it doesn't really matter because he has previously taken responsibility for attacks on U.S. targets. To land a decisive blow the United States may even use nuclear bombs delivered by B-2 stealth bombers in combination with conventional weapons to kill bin Laden and possibly also Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar in bunkers in the Qandahar area of Afghanistan.

Russia has actively been supporting anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan and President Vladimir Putin is apparently ready to support the United States if it decides to "wipe out" Islamic radicals. Last year, Moscow secretly offered Washington the use of its bases in Tajikistan to launch an attack against bin Laden. Now, Putin may expect Washington to support Russia's "anti-terrorist" operations in the Caucasus in return.

At the same time, however, Russia wants to sell up to $10 billion worth of modern weapons to Iran and Syria -- countries the U.S. authorities accuse of supporting terrorism. Thus, the newly forged anti-terrorist alliance between Moscow and Washington may well be short-lived and end in acrimony.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

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#7
Vremya MN
September 13, 2001
A SUPERPOWER HUMILIATED
The United States has been taught a bitter lesson
Author: Gennadi Gerasimov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

TERRORISM IS A MULTIFACETED PHENOMENON. IT SHOULD BE COMBATED BY ALL STATES WORKING SIDE BY SIDE. RUSSIA HAS BEEN REPEATING THIS OVER AND OVER. THE AMERICANS MUST GIVE THOUGHT TO CERTAIN MATTERS, MATTERS THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD AFFORD TO IGNORE UNTIL NOW.

The New York horrors are not over yet. It takes time to clear the rubble that used to be the World Trade Center. Rotting in the warm climate, the bodies will fill the atmosphere with a suffocatingly rancid odor. The local rat population, vastly outnumbering humans, may spread plague...

From the point of view of American military readiness, which costs taxpayers $300 billion a year, an attack by three planes on buildings is an event of fairly modest proportions. An event calculated to humiliate.

President Bush's behavior is already questioned. It didn't fit the image of a fearless Texas cowboy. He was running - Florida to Louisiana to Nebraska... America remembers JFK, who never left the White House during the Cuban missile crisis; and even King George VI, who remained with his subjects in London when German bombs were raining on the city during World War II.

President Dwight Eisenhower, a general himself, was absolutely correct when he said that he refused to wage a nuclear war because of the lack of bulldozers to clear bodies from the streets. While officially admitting that "the fruits of victory will taste of ashes" (JFK's words), Washington went on building up its nuclear arsenals nevertheless. Along with Moscow.

What if the terrorists had been carrying a suitcase with nuclear explosives or some toxic substance with them?

First conclusion: All states should work together to strengthen the regime of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and missile technologies.

Second conclusion: The US military doctrine should be revised. The US Administration has revived Ronald Reagan's astral dreams of Star Wars. It is prepared to pour billions into defense from the still-nonexistent nuclear missiles of problematic regimes. The danger has come from elsewhere, and caught Washington looking in another direction.

Mary Dejevski writes in The Guardian: "What is the national missile defense system worth these days? It is so much dust in the wind now, along with the World Trade Center." The New York Times publishes a reader's letter: "This disaster is a tragic lesson. Redirecting the money meant for the useless nuclear umbrella into effective counter-terrorism programs would be the best monument to the victims."

Terrorism is a multifaceted phenomenon. It should be combated by all states working side by side. Russia has been repeating this over and over. As soon as they received the very first news from the United States, Russia and other states tightened security.

The Americans must give thought to certain matters, matters they thought they could afford to ignore until now. Why is anti-Americanism so strong all over the world? Why this hatred? Perhaps the Americans should abandon their ambitions and eagerness to be considered the salt of the earth.

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#8
BBC Monitoring
Terrorism in USA could alter Russia's relations with West
Source: Komsomolskaya Pravda, Moscow, in Russian 13 Sep 01

In a report entitled "By striking at America, the terrorists have declared war on the entire world" in the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda on 13 September, Yevgeniy Umerenkov surveys the fallout from the terrorist attacks on America. He surmises that an American military strike may well fall on countries such as Libya, Iran or Iraq, which, although Islamic, still seek normal relations with the West. This will have the effect of destabilizing them and bringing more radical governments to power, thus increasing the strength of those who seek battle with the "infidels" and promoting Usamah Bin-Ladin's plans for a "Muslim World Empire". On the other hand, now that America has real experience of terrorism, it should adopt a more understanding view of such countries as Israel and Russia, which have long been fighting Islamic radicals. The long-running nuclear bloc games from the last century should also pall as terrorism becomes the No 1 enemy, and Russia and the West could become allies. The text of the item follows. Subheads have been added editorially.

The main question now - and not just for America - is: who did this and why? The Americans themselves, judging by the latest information, are "90 per cent sure" that this hell was wrought by Usamah Bin-Ladin. The Muslim extremist and millionaire terrorist long ago openly declared war on "the Western world". Several previous high-profile terrorist acts against the United States had been organized by him. But what happened on Tuesday [11 September] was not just separate impudent sallies but a massed attack. It was an act of the large-scale terrorist warfare by Islamic fundamentalists against the civilized world of which Russia has so persistently been warning the West. What is its aim?

Increasing the number of radical Islamic states

People start a war in order to win it. Kamikaze terrorists are "expendable". But those who stand behind them are certainly not suicidal. And they realize full well that by striking such a blow against America, they are drawing fire on to themselves. What is their reasoning? Possibly, the leadership of the "Fundamentalist International" is deliberately "exposing" certain Islamic countries, such as Libya, Iran or Iraq, which are suspected of sympathizing with, or supporting, Muslim extremists, but which nevertheless are inclined to have normal relations with the West. The probable acts of retribution against such countries by the Americans will destabilize the situation in them and lead to a change of the regimes there in favour of more radical ones. And the new powers, firing up hordes of fanatics with religious intolerance, will lead them into open battle against the "infidels". And then Usamah Bin-Ladin's plans to create a "Muslim World Empire" will no longer seem a crazy fantasy. But the forecasts by certain political scientists who used to warn that future conflicts in the world will be in the nature of clashes between civilizations, and specifically between the Muslim and Western Christian civilizations, will be taken seriously into account by politicians.

More sympathy in West for Israel and Russia

It is also possible to make a "reverse" supposition. Staging this tragedy in America was advantageous to those who themselves have long been suffering from Islamic terrorism. In what sense? So that the Americans should feel "for themselves" what this is and finally start "wasting" the terrorists without regard for possible disadvantages. We know who has been getting it in the neck most of all in recent years - Russia and Israel. But only those masters of political scheming who have been doggedly "fingering" the Russian special services for the bombing of apartment blocks in Moscow could trot out such "theories".

Nuclear bloc games to wane

The system of global security will certainly change substantially in the immediate future. Nuclear missiles, it has become clear, are far from the chief threat to modern megalopolises. Geopolitical games in the pursuit of world leadership are bound to become less popular. The "bloc syndrome" with the dogged eastward expansion of NATO could also be revised. The Atlanticists' sympathies for the Kosovan separatists and Albanian gunmen in Macedonia will also most likely become less blatant. And the leading countries' special services, instead of throwing their main forces into the game of cat-and-mouse with each other, could pool their efforts in an effective struggle against the "international terrorist international".

The ideological and political "horror stories" that had been updated from the horrors of the times of confrontation between the two systems [presumably capitalism and socialism] will fall into disuse. America's claims to stand at the head of a unipolar world may also be revised - it has, alas, shown that it is incapable on its own of defending even itself. A strong, cunning and ruthless enemy - international terrorism, whatever its religious underpinning - has emerged for all civilized countries. And a common enemy brings people together. So that a chance that was missed during the past decade because of the West's desire to declare itself the victor in the Cold War, a chance to create a really new political structure of international cooperation, which would really unite the former rivals, may well appear once again.

Russia may have new relationship with West

What happened on Tuesday could fundamentally alter Russia's relations with the West. President Putin, who was the first to start a tough and uncompromising struggle against terrorism, will become an even weightier leader there, and the mistrust for Moscow which still remains will clearly abate. And of course it will no longer occur to anyone once again to "hype" the crazy idea about the Federal Security Service that allegedly organized terrorist acts in its own country. So Berezovskiy's political standing will fall once and for all.

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#9
strana.ru
September 13, 2001
France will soften its stand on Chechnya in its relations with Russia
Tragedy in Chechnya will prompt Paris to take softer stand toward Russia
on Chechnya
Commentary by Igor Bunin, Director of the Center for Political Technologies

To start with, the current French premier is probably more liable to pressure by anti-globalists than any other Western leader. He has even spoken out in favor of approving some taxes on currency exchange as is demanded by anti-globalists and in general has been supportive of some of their ideas.

Second, the French government includes a very large number of humanistic left-wing intellectuals with anti-totalitarian sentiments. They have been the most vociferous critics of Russia's actions in Chechnya.

It is obvious that the French government is more sympathetic to Israel than Palestinians in their conflict with it, a conflict involving terrorism. It is not averse to a policy of appeasement. In that sense Jacques Chirac's position differs from that of his premier. He has a better understanding of Russia's problems arising from Chechnya and is an advocate of tougher measures against terror.

Time was when even Bush declared he treated Israel on a par with Palestine although Clinton had said his heart belonged to Israel.

There has been a shift of emphasis since the terrorist acts. Russia has taken several steps toward the Americans. For example, a Russian air force exercise was cancelled because it could have distracted the U.S. air defense system from terrorists. I believe such gestures will be appreciated in the United States.

It is becoming obvious that the United States is gradually imposing a tougher concept of struggle against terrorism than has been the case before, and it is doing so through the good offices of NATO. In this situation France cannot but follow suit. As usual, it will attempt to resist American policy but in the end it will side with it.

Now that Russia, Israel, the United States and NATO are forming a sort of virtual alliance, France will have to recognize Russia's new role in it. In the light of terrorist acts in the United States it will be talking less about Chechnya and more about joint efforts in the fight against terrorism.

From that point of view France is bound to introduce some new elements in its foreign policy without revising it completely. It may be a cruel thing to say but those tragic events will contribute to rapprochement between Russia and France.

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#10
strana.ru
September 13, 2001
After the American Tragedy the civilized world will become more united
Threat of Islamic fundamentalism will bring USA, European Union and Russia together
By Viktor Sokolov
Interview with Viktor Supyan, deputy director of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute

Q: Talks between Russia and France begin in Moscow on the level of foreign ministries. In what way will the terrorist acts in the U.S. affect them?

A: The horrible tragedy in America will help bring closer together the European nations and the United States and European civilizations as a whole. There is a general feeling that the threat of fundamentalism and radicalism coming from the East is quite real. We do not speak of a division of the world into the East and the West, but the fact is that this kind of Islamic fundamentalism emerged in the East and it confronts Christian and European values. This threat has a consolidating effect, for all the differences, which will not disappear, and despite different political and economic interests of the Western countries and Russia and also among the Western countries themselves.

This monstrous terrorist act has proved that the U.S. idea of building a missile defense system is not at all faultless, that considerable harm can be caused and a situation in a country can be destabilized by simpler means, without using nuclear or other missiles. I think this incident will stimulate the NMD debate.

Q: In what direction? Will the Americans finally convince both its European allies and Russia, or will it be the other way round?

A: It is hard to say - there are two sides of this matter. In the U.S. there are quite influential forces that are NMD supporters and NMD opponents. Take, for instance, the debate last week in the foreign affairs committee of the U.S. Congress. Some speakers made tough statements. They wondered how it is possible to spend half a trillion dollars without firm guarantees that the NMD system will work effectively. I think that the tragic incident in the U.S. will increase criticism on the part of those who are against NMD both in the U.S. and in the rest of the world. Europeans occupy a special position on the matter.

On the other hand, a tragedy that has occurred is an argument for those who come out for increasing U.S. security as a whole. So, let us make ourselves securely defended on all sides, they would say.

I think this tragedy will lead to the consolidation of the other nations as well, including Russia, in the struggle against terrorism.

But political differences will not vanish. Nor will the domestic political struggle in the U.S. There will be arguments in support of those who are for and those who are against NMD.

Q: So, a heated debate on the issue is ahead?

A: I think so. After the terrorist acts in the U.S. one should not expect any quick and simple solutions, when Russia all of a sudden says that it accepts NMD or firmly rejects it. That will not happen.

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#11
Russian commander explains air defence situation to media
Russian AVN Military News Agency web site

Moscow, 12 September: Russia needs 5,400 radars and 4,000 radar companies equipped with height indicators to provide full aerial cover of the 27,000-km-long state border, air force Commander Anatoliy Kornukov told reporters on Wednesday [12 September]. In order to provide full air defence of the entire Russian territory there is a need for some 1,000 SAM [surface-to-air missile] battalions located at a distance of 75 km from each other as well as over 1,800 MiG-31 Foxhound, Su-27 Flanker and Su-30 Flanker planes. No state budget will be able to make it in such scale, Kornukov said. The commander praised the Air Defence Troops of the Ground Forces and navy, especially in the Kaliningrad zone and the Pacific region. He pointed out a special role of the CIS unified air defence system which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia as well as Uzbekistan and Ukraine on a bilateral basis. According to Kornukov, Kazakhstan has a very good backing for it will receive a regiment of Su-27 planes in the near future. A total of 5,000 people, 301 command posts, including 250 in Russia, 51 SAM battalions and batteries, 28 fighter crews, 81 radio and radar reconnaissance posts are protecting the CIS aerial borders every day. Those means and forces are capable of tracking down some 250 aircraft at the same time. Kornukov confirmed that the Russian air defence has been ordered by the defence minister's order forbidding commanders to fire at planes with hostages. A higher leader should be consulted to make such a decision, he stressed. Commanders of all ranks were at their posts at 1730 Moscow time (1330 GMT) on Tuesday. "The first thing we did was to close flight zones over Moscow and St Petersburg, reinforce the radar field and toughen the rules of flight over the entire Russian territory for all Russian and foreign planes," Kornukov said. According to him, no violation of the country's aerospace has taken place since Tuesday, while usually up to 15 violations occur every day. Control services at airports should be toughened in the near future, and the aircraft hijacking warning system should be modernized for currently it has many troubles, Kornukov went on. The commander should be granted the right to open fire in cases similar to those which happened in the United States, he stressed. The training of long-range aviation is partially cancelled, but Tu-22M3 Backfire strategic missile carriers will hold live firing in the Pacific Ocean on Friday, Kornukov added.

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#12
Frankfurter Rundschau (Germany)
date?
MORE CIVILIANS ARE DYING THAN SOLDIERS IN CHECHNYA
No end in sight to war as torture and plundering continue
By Florian Hassel

Moscow - When more than 150 Russian soldiers surrounded Alleroi, the residents of the mountain village suspected something unpleasant was going to happen. Officially, the soldiers were searching for the Chechen president, Aslan Maskhadov, who hails from Alleroi. But the troops found no trace of him.

So in their frustration, they stole food supplies from shops, the market and private houses. A new report by the Russian human rights organisation Memorial says that after days of plundering, drunk soldiers set fire to at least ten houses. They also detained all the village's men and boys and took them to a local school where the Russians tortured the captives with beatings and electrocutions from a mobile diesel generator, says the Memorial report.

Villager Alimshan Daudov had a machine gun held to his throat and was photographed, quaking for his life, for the soldiers' own amusement. Nine men were shot, says Memorial, including a 17-year-old man from the neighbouring village of Tsentoroi. The Russian soldiers are said to be still holding 54 hostages in earth pits outside the village.

This description of a Russian atrocity is only the latest of a series of attacks which the Russian leadership likes to term "clean-up operations" in its supposed search for rebels. In mid-July, Vladimir Moltenskoy, commander in chief of Russia's North Caucasian troops, promised that "we are now pursuing a special operation to rekindle the population's trust in the army." Moltenskoy's announcement was no coincidence. At the beginning of July, hundreds of Interior Ministry soldiers arrested some 1,500 men in the neighbouring villages of Asinovskaya and Sernovodsk.

Many of them were tortured. The soldiers plundered houses, cars and tractors, lobbed grenades into classrooms of the schoolhouse - empty at the time, thankfully - and cleared out the safe containing the teachers' pay. The relatives of one of the victims, Ruslan Payzulayev, 38, a deaf mute, told a reporter for the New York Times that he was maltreated with electric shocks.

The assaults on Alleroi, Asinovskaya and Sernovodsk are not isolated incidents; far more, they represent the tip of the iceberg.

Every day, reports of small "clean-up operations" reach the Memorial office in the Ingushetian capital Nazran. At the end of the second year of this second Chechen war, Russian troops continue to terrorise and plunder the population with complete impunity.

After the events in Asinovskaya and Sernovodsk emerged, Russia's Interior Minister Boris Gryzlov promptly defended the plundering and torture as "operations which are executed in compliance with the legal norms covering anti-terrorist operations." But after four respected, pro-Moscow administrative chiefs in Chechnya threatened to resign, Viktor Kazantsev, President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to the Caucasus, apologised for the soldiers' acts.

Yet Russia's soldiery in Chechnya still need fear no investigation into their acts of barbary, let alone punishments. President Putin justified the troops' July 18 assaults on Asinovskaya and Sernovodsk as "a control check on the passport regime." Unfortunately, Russia's troops are not always able to avoid "rising to the rebels' provocations", which he blamed for the attacks in the first place.

The Chechen rebels have also stuck by their time-honoured tactics.

Using remote-controlled mines and ambushes they continue to inflict losses on isolated Russian units.

At the beginning of July, Moscow's general staff admitted to the Interfax news agency that 3,433 Russian soldiers had been killed and 10,160 injured by then. Western military experts, however, believe that the losses are two to three times higher. Regardless, disproportionately more civilians are dying than soldiers in Chechnya.

Plausible estimates suggest that tens of thousands of Chechen civilians have lost their lives since the start of the second war at the beginning of 1999. By far the most depart this life at the hands of their Russian "liberators".

Following the latest "clean-up operations", several thousand more civilians have fled to the neighbouring Russian republic of Ingushetia, where at least 150,000 Chechens vainly await the end of the war.

Chechens who work with Russians in the local administration live dangerously, too. More than 40 mayors, district bosses and religious leaders have been murdered since the last big military conflicts a year and a half ago gave way to the current guerrilla warfare.

And there is no end to the war in sight. The Russians control the flat north of Chechnya only during the day: at night no one dares leave his base or checkpoint. That means that in the mountainous Argun and Vedeno valleys in the south, the armies at best contol the central access routes.

Vedeno Valley, which leads to the former Soviet republic of Georgia is particularly vital to the rebels. In Georgia, the traditional home of the Chechen people, hundreds of the rebel troop - which is still thought to number several thousand men - have sought refuge or a break from fighting. The valley is also the route taken by reinforcements heading for rebel leaders Shamil Basayev and Khattab as well as President Maskhadov.

Yet no one can say precisely what the situation in Chechnya is.

Moscow-based journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was the last to interview Maskhadov last May, says that the Chechen leader is "in a deep depression".

During another news-gathering assignment in the Vedeno Valley in mid-August, Politkovskaya said she again found "no evidence of fighting. Many of the supposed battles take place only in the minds of the propaganda departments on both sides." Military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, meanwhile, predicted a large rebel offensive for the end of June, which Maskhadov had apparently been planning for a year.

Then, at the beginning of August, videos began to circulate in Chechen refugee camps in Ingushetia. On them, Maskhadov could be seen advising his people to return to their homeland because of an imminent offensive.

A week ago, the rebel's propaganda chief Movladi Udugov announced that the fighters had killed around 40 Russian soldiers in battles in the Vedeno Valley giving them control of the regional centre, Vedeno.

The Russians counterclaimed that several dozen rebels had in fact been killed.

If this really marks the beginning of a large rebel offensive, Maskhadov will be following the course he has outlined to bring the Kremlin round to resuming peace negotiations at long last.

Felgenhauer believes that more and more Russians generals consider the war morally wrong and unwinnable. An influential three-star general told the military analyst in mid-June already that, "We have lost this war and should look to extricate ourselves." President Putin, though, seems unprepared for any such move. Back in June, Putin blocked the withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya he had announced in the spring. There are apparently still more than 80,000 in the southern republic.

"I have been asked whether I shall change my approach to Chechnya and my answer is no," said Putin in mid-July, underlining his stance that, for the moment, talks are not on his agenda.

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#13
The Times (UK)
September 13, 2001
New enemies demand new strategies as the Cold War ends
BY ANATOL LIEVEN
Lessons for the generals

THE Cold War finally ended on Tuesday September 11 at 8.45am, Eastern Standard Time. Until that moment, faithful to the maxim that generals always plan for the last war, the greater part of the United States' political and security establishments were still heavily influenced by Cold War thinking.

One key reason for this, of course, has been that the US military, intelligence, think-tank and military industrial worlds have remained overwhelmingly configured around Cold War structures.

They have anticipated conflict, or at least strong rivalry, with large, organised states with modern, conventional militaries and old-style nuclear missile forces. In the case of Russia, combating Russian influence in the other former Soviet republics (often dubbed, bizarrely, "the restoration of the Soviet Union") was portrayed as a vital American national interest.

The alleged risk of renewed Russian aggression against Central Europe and the Baltic states was made a key justification for the retention and expansion of Nato.

In recent years, there have been strong moves to cast China as the new, Soviet-style global threat to US dominance, requiring a Cold War-style response. Hence moves to nullify China's nuclear deterrent through national missile defence (NMD). Despite some new thinking, US conventional forces remain heavily organised and equipped for open warfare against formal, state-armed forces bearing relatively high-tech weapons.

Missile defence and the planned US military domination of space have been posited on an acute danger from states that, on the one hand, are assumed to be organised and quite technologically sophisticated, but, on the other, willing to commit almost certain collective suicide in pursuit of their aims.

Yet in the end, most of this has been just shadow-boxing. Indeed, that was true of the Cold War itself in its last ten years or so. America, and America's allies, are now in a real war -- one which has just claimed thousands of American casualties. By contrast, it should be remembered that since the end of the Cold War, neither Russia nor China have been responsible for a single US casualty. For that matter, it could well be argued that even during the Cold War, the only time that the US and its allies really had to fight was in Korea in 1950.

It is now abundantly clear that we do, indeed, face dreadfully savage and fanatical enemies, willing to face certain death to destroy us and with a high capacity for planning and organisation. But these are not open representatives of states and they are most certainly not representatives of Russia and China. On the contrary, Russia and China are themselves under severe threat from exactly the same enemies and are our natural allies in our fight against them.

This is above all true of Russia, if it is proved that Osama bin Laden or other groups backed by the Taleban were responsible for these attacks. For the long-term control of pathologies stemming from Afghanistan, Russian co-operation is absolutely essential. US policies of rolling back Russian influence in Central Asia and undermining Russia's hold on the North Caucasus have to stop, now.

Unilateralist American policies in recent years have been based consciously or unconsciously on the assumption that because America itself is invulnerable, it does not really need allies. Missile defence was supposed to complete the walls of Fortress America. Today, that assumption lies in ruins, and the utter irrelevance of NMD to the real threats facing the United States has been demonstrated beyond question.

In the short term, ferocious unilateral action by the United States and its closest allies will be necessary to punish and deter the perpetrators of this atrocity and any state that can be shown to have backed them. But even in the medium term, a continuation of US unilateralism would be a critical threat to victory in the anti-terrorism war.

This is true of US global policies, but above all in the Arab and Muslim world. In the fight against terrorism, the co-operation of these states is absolutely essential. One reason is that as this attack has cruelly revealed, US intelligence in the Middle East is highly inadequate.

Equally importantly, massive Western retaliation against Muslim targets unaccompanied by attempts to conciliate Arab and Muslim governments and populations will risk spreading support for terrorism in all directions.

The US therefore needs finally to listen to pro-Western Muslim states when they say that US support for Israel, and Israeli policies, have made such co-operation on their part extremely difficult.

After Pearl Harbor, the Japanese commander Admiral Yamamoto famously remarked that he was afraid that "all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant, and fill him with a terrible resolve". Given the massive and bestial nature of these attacks, American resolve is indeed likely to be forthcoming. But to fight this war successfully, resolve alone is not enough. We also need a whole new strategy.

Anatol Lieven is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. An essay based on this article is to appear in the forthcoming issue of Prospect magazine.

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#14
Trud
No. 186
September 13, 2001
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE ON AMERICAN TRAGEDY
By Nikolai DOLGOPOLOV

Colonel-General Sergei LEBEDEV, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, usually does not comment on world events - for understandable reasons. But he made an exception this time.

"The tragic events in New York and Washington confirmed the global nature of the threat of terrorism and the need to pool efforts to combat it," Lebedev said. "The Foreign Intelligence Service is maintaining close contacts with the secret services of the USA and partners from West European, Middle and Near Eastern countries. The main goal of these contacts is to expose and prevent potential terrorist acts."

The opinion of Major-General of intelligence Yuri DROZDOV, the founding father of the legendary Vympel group, which is successfully fighting terrorists of all stripes, carries special weight today. Besides, the general knows very well about the methods of operation of the US secret services, because he had worked in the USA for a long time.

Question: How could this happen in the USA, whose security services are among the world's best?

Answer: We can assume that the adversary was perfectly aware of the typically American weaknesses. They exploited them and provoked an international catastrophe.

Question: But who could organise and orchestrate such unprecedented slaughter so skilfully?

Answer: I can tell you one thing. US manuals, which I know well, say that a group of seven trained people can disrupt the normal operation of human and industrial mass of up to half a million people.

Question: But if even manuals stipulate the notion of real danger, why did the secret services fail?

Answer: The tragedy confirmed that the secret services, created for the express purpose of ensuring security, did not work well enough. This is a weakness. But the main thing is that arrogance in the operation of secret services and neglect of the adversary always result in major miscalculations.

Question: The US intelligence gets 30 billion dollars a year, but it is said the USA is enamoured with technical, in particular satellite, types of intelligence.

Answer: You know, certain documents have appeared that point in the opposite direction. The recruitment of agents will remain the top priority of intelligence. But the powerful technical facilities should have ensured maximum protection from potential terrorist acts. Alas...

Question: Who could order the shattering tragedy?

Answer: This is not the time for hasty conclusions. It is apparent that the action was carefully coordinated and prepared, with the goals and methods of attaining them clearly defined and orchestrated. I would not like to say this about bandits, but I will have to. They acted highly professionally. And their action was prepared for a very long time.

Question: Can one forecast the direction of the terrorists' strike and forestall them?

Answer: This is concerned with a package of problems, with a great number of components. The notion of the protection of territory. The migration laws. The monitoring of people's movement. Proceeding from American documents concerned with these problems, one can assume that they include similar miscalculations and failures. Take the evaluation of the global situation. Are their forecasts of crises, big and small wars and regional clashes correct? Of what is happening and what can happen on our territory? If they evaluate the situation from a certain angle, they themselves are involved to a degree in the developments.

The American tragedy calls for an in-depth political, specialised analysis so that, God forbid, they would not have to say next time: "Guys, you flopped again." In conclusion I would like to offer my condolences and the condolences of my colleagues for the dead and injured.

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