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CDI RUSSIA WEEKLY - #158
15 June 2001
Edited by David Johnson
Center for Defense Information
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
phone: 202-332-0600; fax:202-462-4559
djohnson@cdi.org
 
CDI RUSSIA WEEKLY HOME
 
ISSUE #158 CONTENTS
 
The CDI Russia Weekly is a weekly e-mail newsletter that carries news and analysis on all aspects of today's Russia, including political, economic, social, military, and foreign policy issues. With funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the MacArthur Foundation, the CDI Russia Weekly is a project of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information (CDI), a nonprofit research and education organization.

 

Contents:

1. RFE/RL
Sophie Lambroschini
Breffni O'Rourke
Russia/U.S.: Ljubljana Summit May Be More About 'Chemistry' Than Actual Issues.
 
2. Moscow Times
Pavel Felgenhauer
Setting the Stage for Failure
 
3. PBS NewsHour
with Jim Lehrer

PUSHING MISSILE DEFENSE
(Views of Alexander Pikayev)
 
4. AFP
Russian activists appeal to West to help stop Chechen war
 
5. CDI's Weekly
Defense Monitor

Tomas Valasek
Momentum Building for Second Round of NATO Expansion
 
6. Jamestown
Foundation
Monitor

PUTIN DECORATES YELTSIN ON RUSSIAN "INDEPENDENCE DAY."
 
7. Christian Science
Monitor

Robert Marquand
Central Asians group to counterweigh US.
Russia, China, and four republics meet to expand solidarity and oppose separatism.
 
8. Ekspert
Vilya Gelbras
COMPLEX OF A GREAT POWER AND A MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.
Relations of trust between Russia and China are impossible in the foreseeable future.
 
9. Baltimore Sun
Kathy Lally
Pardons turn rare in Putin's Russia. Critics say backing harsh terms is way to strengthen state; 'Dictatorship of law.'
 
10. PIR Center
Vladimir Orlov
RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION POLICY UNDER PRESIDENT PUTIN.
 

 

 
 
#1
Russia/U.S.: Ljubljana Summit May Be More About 'Chemistry' Than
Actual Issues
By Sophie Lambroschini/Breffni O'Rourke

U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet for the first time on 16 June in the Slovenian capital Ljubljana. Both leaders will bring to the table strong opinions about two divisive issues in U.S.-Russian relations: NATO's eastward expansion and Bush's plans to build a missile defense shield and abandon the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. But analysts say the meeting is unlikely to produce any major agreements on key policy issues. Instead, it will be an opportunity for Bush and Putin to test their personal "chemistry" and lay the groundwork for future meetings. Some analysts also say that it is now Europe, and not the United States, that Russia sees as its key diplomatic partner.

Moscow/Prague, 14 June 2001 (RFE/RL) -- U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin have no shortage of topics to discuss in their first face-to-face meeting in Ljubljana on 16 June.

There is, to begin with, the divisive issue of NATO expansion and the possible entry of the Baltic states -- former Soviet republics Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia -- into the Western military alliance.

Russia, which continues to consider the Baltic states part of its sphere of influence, has strongly opposed the countries' entry bids. But Bush in recent days has confirmed the U.S. commitment to seeing "qualified democracies" join the alliance, saying further NATO expansion was just a matter of time:

"It's not a question of 'whether' -- it is a question of 'when.' We firmly believe NATO should expand. There is a process for member applicants to go through and we support that process. I will also say that no nation should have a veto over who is admitted into NATO."

Another source of contention is Bush's controversial missile defense plan, which has sparked criticism among the United States' European allies as well as from Russia and China. Russia has argued that the plan would nullify the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and subsequent disarmament agreements, and lead to a new arms race. The United States, in turn, has warily noted Russia's continued arms sales to China as well as so-called "rogue nations" like Iran -- whose potential to launch missile attacks against Washington and its allies has spurred Bush's support for missile defense.

But analysts say that no major progress on divisive issues like these are likely to take place during the presidents' first official meeting, which is expected to last only two hours. Instead, the summit is seen as a chance for Bush and Putin to get acquainted and establish the tone for future bilateral relations.

Viktor Kremenyuk is an analyst with the USA and Canada Institute think-tank in Moscow. He says Putin's team will be using the summit to get a sense of what he called Bush's "genuine" outlook toward Russia:

"I think this is still a pre-negotiation summit. We know the number of issues there are between us and the United States. We know every step on the agenda -- on security, on regional problems, on bilateral relations. All that is well known. What is not known is the following: Will [future] relations be friendly and searching for common solutions, or will they be tough, with [each side] confronting the other from a forceful position?"

Bush and Putin appear to have little desire to rekindle the famously friendly relations of their predecessors, Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin. Their official relationship got off to an especially prickly start earlier this year, when Bush expelled dozens of Russian diplomats from Washington in the wake of the discovery that a U.S. FBI agent, Robert Hanssen, had spent nearly 15 years spying for Russia.

In Russia, the summit itself is seen as a victory of Moscow diplomacy. The two leaders were originally scheduled to meet only in July at the G-7 plus Russia summit in Genoa. Initial attempts by Russia to arrange an earlier meeting were rejected by Washington, which many saw as an attempt by the Bush administration to punish Russia for its failure to comply on defense issues.

But Kremenyuk says it is still too early to determine what the long-term prospects will be for Bush-Putin relations:

"[The nature of relations] are unclear, because the U.S. has a new president and it's not clear to them [the Americans] what's going on in Russia. [It's not clear] because everyone is disappointed by the former stage in Russian-U.S. relations. That's why we haven't yet received a gesture, a signal, about whether or not the United States intends to continue partnership relations with Russia or not."

Kremenyuk points out that personal relations have been the keystone of diplomatic relations between the two countries since Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. But, he adds, that focus actually reveals the potential fragility of U.S.-Russian relations:

"Since [Russia and the U.S.] declared in 1993 that we were strategic partners, a lot has depended on whether or not the two presidents get along. That's a minus. We should have gone over to institutionalized relations a long time ago. Relations that would be reinforced by some 'cushions' -- like the relations between the United States and China, which are cushioned by trade and investment, things that can soften [crises] like when the [U.S.] surveillance plane was shot down, for example."

Other analysts agree that the time has come to downplay the personal nature of U.S.-Russian relations.

Sergei Karaganov, the head of Moscow's Foreign and Defense Policy Council think-tank, told the Reuters news agency that Russia wants what he called "normal, quiet, constructive relations [with the United States], without confrontation." He added that Russia's foreign policy, while not working "against America," is now focused more on Europe.

Indeed, although the European Union will not be represented at the Ljubljana summit, it stands to be deeply affected by its results. Geographically sandwiched between the U.S. and Russia, Europe is naturally affected by tensions between the former Cold-War rivals.

Analysts say a successful meeting between Bush and Putin will help further improve the reasonably cordial relations between the EU and Moscow. A bad summit, however, may increase uncertainty about these relations.

London-based independent security analyst Alexandra Ashbourne points to the fragility of the situation. She says:

"The EU is still quite uncertain of how to treat Russia. Should they still treat Russia as a superpower, or should they treat it as a partner that has fallen on hard times but which could reassert itself? I mean, it is something [that former president Boris] Yeltsin said many years ago already: that the West does not know how to handle Russia."

Ashbourne notes the broad spectrum of opinions in Europe about Russia. She describes the post-Cold War attitudes of governments in France, Germany -- and more lately, Britain -- as pro-Russian. By contrast, she says, the new NATO members in Central Europe -- Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic -- have what she calls a "historic loathing" of Russia. But at the same time, those countries, which have yet to join the EU, still have important trade links with Russia that cannot be neglected.

Ashbourne says that, moving further East, the Baltic republics demonstrate the importance of having a constructive relationship with Russia:

"You look at the Baltic States. One of the reasons Lithuania's development, post-independence, has been so rocky was that for the first few years, [Chairman of the Supreme Council Vytautas] Landsbergis wanted nothing to do with Russia. That is a deep historical sentiment there, but they have [since] realized that they are bound to Russia in terms of trade."

Another London-based security analyst, Daniel Keohane of the Center for European Reform, says Europeans should not expect substantive results from the Slovenia summit, which he, like others, sees mainly as a session allowing the two leaders to get acquainted. But he points out that the EU will be looking very closely at the meeting nevertheless:

"In particular, I think the EU wants to ensure that the Bush team is taking Russian views and Russian concerns on board. There was a worry among EU leaders in the past few months that the Bush team had been a little dismissive of what the Russians were saying and not taking their views into account, which of course creates problem for the Europeans. They [the Europeans] will want to see a more constructive [U.S.-Russian] relationship. And they would see this summit as a basis for that."

Reducing tensions between Washington and Moscow, Ashbourne adds, should be at the forefront of the summit's concerns:

"The best-case solution would probably be some sort of statement showing that Putin will not actively oppose America's development of the missile defense technology, and which suggests some sort of partnership [between Washington and Moscow]."

All in all, the relationship between the United States and Russia may not have the pivotal importance that it once had, but it is still capable of influencing a wide spectrum of countries in Europe.

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#2
Moscow Times
June 14, 2001
Setting the Stage for Failure
By Pavel Felgenhauer

Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin will meet for the first time on Saturday in the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, to discuss missile defense and the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, as well as cooperation on regional conflicts, Russia's acceptance into the World Trade Organization, Russian nuclear technology transfers and weapons sales to Iran, NATO expansion, and maybe even the war in Chechnya -- if there's enough time left.

But there surely will be no time. The Ljubljana summit is scheduled to last just two hours. It's surely impossible to settle the issues that divide Moscow and Washington in two hours or less, since the presidents will be speaking through an interpreter. There will be time only to state positions and then politely bow out of the conference room for a photo op and a short noncommittal news conference.

Preparatory meetings between American and Russian officials did not get anywhere, and the format of the Ljubljana summit guarantees that nothing of substance can happen. Still both Moscow and Washington want (for differing reasons) an ambiguous, noncommittal summit at which Bush and Putin will "look into each other's eyes" and get acquainted.

Despite months of arm-twisting, the United States has not managed to persuade its NATO allies to unequivocally support missile defense and the scrapping of the ABM Treaty. After Ljubljana, Washington could spread the word that Russia is on the verge of a historical compromise, prodding European states that are not even parties to the ABM Treaty to curtail their opposition.

Actually positive rumors have come from Washington that "Russia is almost ready for an ABM deal" several times over the last couple of years, but each time they turned out to be unfounded. Russian diplomats say this is a deliberate American tactic of high-level diplomatic bluff.

Still the Kremlin also badly needs an ambiguous summit that can be interpreted as a "success" to boost Putin's international image. Today the Kremlin is troubled most of all not by missile defense plans nor NATO expansion, but by the threat of Russia being expelled from the G-8 group of industrialized nations -- a development that would present many political and economic problems as well as being an appalling insult to Putin personally.

Kremlin insiders actually believe former media tycoon Vladimir Gusinsky is financing and organizing an international plot to oust Putin from the G-8 to revenge the destruction of his Media-MOST empire. They think Gusinsky has already corrupted half of Washington and will use any misstep by Putin, any heated argument with Bush, to achieve his goal.

The best "incentive" the Bush administration can offer the Kremlin to clinch a genuine compromise on missile defense is to grab Gusinsky the next time he comes to the United States and put him on the first plane to Moscow. Even an informal pledge to help catch Putin's personal archenemy could move consultations on missile defense forward. It would be interpreted in the Kremlin as a serious indication that Bush wants to be a friend, that the legacy of the Cold War is over and Putin is accepted as an equal by the West.

Today U.S. policy on Russia is being formed by academics like National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Michael McFaul of Stanford University. They are reported to have rehearsed Bush on what to say in Ljubljana. In Washington, they most likely believe that a similar group of Moscow academics has trained Putin. But Russian foreign policy experts who were close advisers to former presidents Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin say the Kremlin today is even more isolated than it was in the last years of Yeltsin's term. Academic debate is not welcome there.

Russia is ruled by a system of ponyatiya -- an unwritten but generally accepted semi-criminal code of behavior. Things that are important here are, say, the head of one's personal enemy on a platter, a multimillion-dollar direct bribe or a lucrative multibillion-dollar contract signed with a powerful lobbyist. That's what they call an "incentive to reach a compromise" in Moscow.

As long as the United States is offering Russia various academic "incentives" to compromise on missile defense -- things like participation in joint exercises, military or economic aid that cannot be snatched up by insiders and the like -- they will be seen in the Kremlin as trying get something for nothing and will be greeted with nothing but sneers.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent, Moscow-based defense analyst.

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#3
Excerpt
PBS NewsHour with Jim Lehrer
PUSHING MISSILE DEFENSE
June 13, 2001

RAY SUAREZ: Now, four perspectives on the president's efforts to persuade the Europeans missile defense is a good idea....Alexander Pikayev is an adviser to the defense committee of the Russian Duma and is a scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center....

RAY SUAREZ: Alexander Pikayev, perhaps anticipating Chancellor Schroeder's questions, the president says it's time to start thinking in a different way in the post Cold War era, that a new set of relationships is needed. Is that argument finding much response in Russia?

ALEXANDER PIKAYEV: Yeah, I think so. It's a real inappropriate situation that after the ten years after the end of the Cold War, we still are in quite an ambiguous situation and we don't know whether we are friends or still opponents. And I think that the Kremlin should be very sympathetic to what President Bush said today about his willingness to create new strategic framework with Russia. And it's very important I think.

However still there is a lot of questions and I hope some of them could be solved in Lubjana. The question is -- one of the questions is well, we have nuclear deterrence, which is a real relic of the Cold War, not because we have the ABM Treaty. We have the ABM Treaty still because we have nuclear deterrence ten years after the end of the Cold War. And the real question is how President Bush would be able to demonstrate to Russian President Putin, how we could go away from the new predators and whether the U.S.-Russia relations would enter such a stage, such a level when new predators would be obsolete. And if nuclear deterrence is obsolete, of course, the ABM Treaty would not be an important question.

RAY SUAREZ: Secretary Rumsfeld is trying to answer those fears by saying that a system could be designed that puts an anti-missile system in place that doesn't neutralize Russia's deterrence. Is that something that they're going to buy in Moscow?

ALEXANDER PIKAYEV: No, I think that the question is much more broad. The real question is well, if we are going to abandon nuclear deterrence, probably we need to go over nuclear disarmament. President Bush said that he is willing to go down -- very important -- but he didn't specify how deep he wants to go whether he wants to go down unilaterally.

RAY SUAREZ: You mean reduce the number of warheads --

ALEXANDER PIKAYEV: -- reduce the number of strategic nuclear warheads. Whether what would happen with transparency, what would happen with irreversibility of nuclear reductions, whether President Bush is going to dismantle systems which he is going to reduce or just download them, to remove extra warheads from so-called unused missiles, put them somewhere nearby, and when, if needed, they could be returned back very quickly....

RAY SUAREZ: Let me hear again from Alexander Pikayev, will President Bush meet a President Putin who is read to deal on some of these questions?

ALEXANDER PIKAYEV: The Kremlin also hints that it is ready to deal. However the Russian approach is quite different. Russia thinks that first abrogating the ABM Treaty and then thinking about nuclear deterrence is probably the wrong approach because if we abrogate the ABM Treaty first, nuclear deterrence might be even worse -- and this mutual assured destruction, which would remain non-regulated, unregulated by any arms control agreement so that we might go back to the situation we had in 1960s, which was recently demonstrated in this excellent "Thirteen Days" movie.

And I think it would be dangerous. I think the -- many people in Russia think that we need really to go away from nuclear deterrence but starting from other end. We need to remove political ambiguities, which -- because of which nuclear deterrence is still in place. And if political climate would change first, it would be much easier to deal with such problems like the modification -- or change the ABM Treaty -- if, you know, there is no arms control in relations between the United States and Europe.

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#4
Russian activists appeal to West to help stop Chechen war

MOSCOW, June 14 (AFP) -
Russian human rights activists went over the head of President Vladimir Putin Thursday and appealed to the leaders of the world's G7 most industrialised countries to force the Kremlin to negotiate an end to the 20-month war in Chechnya.

The Chechen conflict was "our national disgrace, but also a disgrace for the international community as a whole," said former Soviet dissident and human rights campaigner Sergei Kovalyov, on behalf of the Committee for Ending War and Restoring Peace in Chechnya.

Kovalyov, a former rights ombudsman under Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin, launched the committee's appeal at a press conference during which he accused the G7 nations of being "silent accessories" to the long-running separatist conflict.

The committee has sent a letter to US President George W. Bush and the other G7 leaders who are scheduled to meet Putin at a summit in Genoa, Italy, on July 21-22.

"We appeal to you to raise with President Putin the necessity of immediately beginning peace talks between Russia and Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov," the letter urges.

It also accuses the Russian leadership of using its self-styled "anti-terrorist campaign" against Islamic rebels in the North Caucasus republic "to initiate widescale military actions aimed at the whole population" of Chechnya.

"This is a cynical policy turning a military campaign into genocide and inflicting mass destruction of life and property." the committee adds in its letter.

But the Russian activists also criticised the West for standing by helplessly as the Chechen war dragged on, choosing not to alienate the Russian leadership by issuing anything more than "empty declarations."

The world's richest nations were "accessory" to the Russian security crackdown "because of their silence," said Yury Samodurov of the Andrei Sakharov centre.

The anti-war committee was set up in March when it appealed to Putin and the separatist president Maskhadov to begin unconditional peace talks immediately.

In May, Maskhadov responded by saying that he was ready to negotiate a political settlement of the war, but so far no answer had been received from the Russian president, the committee said.

On Wednesday Maskhadov too slammed the international community for its "impotence" in trying to resolve the conflict and called on the West to "force Russia to give up its genocide and aggression against the Chechen people."

The Kremlin has said repeatedly that it will not negotiate with the rebel side and says it no longer recognises Maskahdov as the legitimate Chechen president.

However, in urging peace talks, Kovalyov said Thursday that "apart from Maskhadov, there is no other legitimate figure in Chechnya to negotiate with."

More than 3,000 Russian troops have been killed since Moscow launched its military intervention in Chechnya on October 1, 1999, according to official figures.

But the Russian Soldiers' Mother Committee argues that Moscow is trying to hide its true losses in Chechnya, estimating that the true toll may be three times higher than government spokesmen admit.

Human rights organisations have accused Russian forces of carrying out widespread atrocities in the republic where 309,000 inhabitants have been displaced since the start of the war, the Russian federal affairs ministry said last week.

In addition to the United States, the other G7 nations are Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan.

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#5
Weekly Defense Monitor
Center for Defense Information
www.cdi.org
June 14, 2001

Momentum Building for Second Round of NATO Expansion
Tomas Valasek, Senior Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org

In a debate often overshadowed by that on missile defense, NATO allies are beginning to stake out their positions on the second round of NATO enlargement. Candidates, and possibly new members, are expected to be announced at the alliance's summit in Prague in 2002. No country has made a declaration in favor of enlarging NATO in 2002, in keeping with NATO's modus operandi that requires a consensus of all 19 allies. But in the recent flurry of meetings, which included gatherings of foreign and defense ministers, as well as the heads of state, governments gave some of the strongest indications to date of their determination to invite new members in 2002.

U.S. President George W. Bush, in Spain on the first leg of his European tour, said that NATO expansion is "not a question of whether, it's a question of when ... We firmly believe NATO should expand." While certainly encouraging for the applicant countries, the statement does not answer the key question — will actual invitations be issued in Prague? A number of experts close to the U.S. administration advocated a gradual approach, whereby NATO would commit only to expanding in the future while delaying actual accession until the applicant countries improve the state of their militaries.

But recent statements by NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson strongly indicated that at least some applicants will walk away from Prague with invitations in hand. In remarks to the press following a meeting of NATO leaders on June 13, Robertson said: "NATO hopes and expects, based on current and anticipated progress by aspiring members, to launch the next round of enlargement at the Prague summit in 2002." An unnamed U.S. administration official offered another insight into NATO's closed-door deliberations on enlargement. "There were a number of allies who expressed strong, even emotional support for continued NATO enlargement," he said, adding that "no allies spoke against it." Czech President Vaclav Havel also told Czech Radio June 14 that "there seems to be a consensus [among NATO members] that Slovakia and Slovenia should be offered membership of NATO."

In another subplot to the NATO enlargement drama, the prospects of the three Baltic states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — joining the alliance seem to have improved. Their candidacy, strongly opposed by Russia, has been viewed with skepticism among European allies, wary of further alienating their eastern neighbor. But Havel, a fervent supporter of enlargement, told Czech Radio that "the allies are becoming increasingly convinced that the three Baltic countries should also be invited to join." The final communique produced by NATO foreign ministers on May 29 seemed to support Havel's view. In an oblique reference to the Baltic states' proximity to Russia — and the worries in some NATO countries that their location makes the Baltic states indefensible — the final communique stated that "no European democratic country...will be excluded from consideration regardless of its geographic location." The language also mirrors the U.S. position, expressed in numerous statements by President Bush.

NATO officials effectively have put the burden of completing the accession process on the applicant countries themselves. Virtually all recent statements in support of enlargement have been emphatically linked to the candidate countries' meeting accession requirements. President Bush's statement at a June 13 news conference is symptomatic of the tactic apparently adopted by allied officials. "We will be able to launch the next round of enlargement when we meet in Prague," Bush said, "if [the candidate countries] continue to make the progress they are making." The position reflects concerns among allies, particularly the United States, about the growing technological gap among today's allies. Already, U.S. forces had difficulties operating jointly in Kosovo with European forces, using older generation weaponry. Military preparedness thus looms as the last remaining obstacle separating NATO hopefuls from alliance membership. President Bush is expected to shed more light on NATO's deliberation when he visits Poland, a NATO member since 1999, on June 15.

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#6
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
June 13, 2001

PUTIN DECORATES YELTSIN ON RUSSIAN "INDEPENDENCE DAY"
... On June 12, 1990, the first Congress of People's Deputies of the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic passed a declaration of state sovereignty. June 12 has since been made an official holiday that is formally designated "the Day of the Passage of the Declaration of the State Sovereignty" but more often referred to simply as "Independence Day." President Vladimir Putin held a Kremlin reception yesterday to celebrate the anniversary, declaring that the sovereignty declaration marked "the beginning of our new history" as "a democratic state, based on civil liberties and supremacy of the law" and that democracy and civil rights were "society's legacy to be defended daily."

During the reception, Putin also conferred the Order of Service to the Motherland first degree, Russia's highest civilian award, on his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, who was elected Russian president on June 12, 1991, exactly one year after Russia's sovereignty declaration. However, in what some might interpret as an oblique dig at Yeltsin, given the economic hardships most Russians experienced during his tenure, Putin declared: "Everything we endured over the past decade, all our experiences, successes and failures, shows one thing--any reform only makes sense when it serves the people. If reforms do not benefit citizens, then they will fail."

Yeltsin, for his part, praised Putin yesterday, telling Russian Public Television (ORT) that his hopes for his successor had been "vindicated" and that Putin was "taking the country on the right path and enabling the growth of Russia's authority in the whole world." The former Russian president said that he had last met with Putin on May 10, but that while they had "discussed things," he had not given his successor "any strict advice." "There's no point," Yeltsin told ORT. "He's the president, he takes decisions and is the one is who is in the final analysis responsible for his own decisions" (ORT, Russian agencies, AP, AFP, Reuters, June 12).

Despite Yeltsin's assurances, rumors persist that the former Russian president and his inner circle, known as the "Family," continue to wield influence over Putin--or at least are trying to continue to wield such influence and thereby prevent Putin from becoming a fully independent player (ORT, June 12). For example, Stringer, the monthly publication set up last year under the auspices of Aleksandr Korzhakov, the State Duma deputy who was formerly Yeltsin's chief bodyguard, reported last month that Yeltsin and Putin had spoken by telephone concerning "the coming resignation" of Aleksandr Voloshin, the Kremlin chief of staff, who is widely viewed as a key "Family" member. Citing sources in the presidential administration, Stringer reported that Yeltsin--"urged on" by Tat'yana Dyachenko, his daughter and a former Kremlin adviser--had demanded during his phone conversation with Putin that Voloshin be left in as head of the presidential administration and had threatened to go public about "how the mechanism for ensuring the continuity of power really worked" if Voloshin were replaced. Stringer also suggested, however, that Yeltsin's reported threat was an empty one and that the "Family" no longer had the strength to fight Putin openly (Stringer, No. 12, May 2001). In his ORT interview, Yeltsin said that media reports about the "Family" were "myths" and "malicious lies" (ORT, June 12).

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#7
Christian Science Monitor
June 15, 2001
Central Asians group to counterweigh US
Russia, China, and four republics meet to expand solidarity and oppose separatism.
By Robert Marquand
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

As President Bush tries to sell the idea of a missile defense shield to American allies in Europe, the leaders of Russia and China met yesterday and gave a thumbs down to the controversial US plan.

The Shanghai meeting of Russia, China, and four Central Asian nations is an effort to develop an organization that could one day offer a modest geopolitical counterweight to Western alliances. Its timing and substance are considered significant, with Russia and China already drawing closer after signing a number of bilateral agreements this year.

Begun in 1996, the "Shanghai Five" is regarded as a foreign policy innovation by President Jiang - an effort to create a multilateral grouping, something slightly out of step with China's traditional insular approach to outside relations.

The forum "is China's attempt to break out of its old foreign policy isolation," says Cheng Li, professor at Hamilton College in New York, author of a new book on Chinese leadership. "The group will become quite important if the US puts NMD on line. That would make an alliance between Russia and China quite likely."

In a statement that included a desire for the two countries to work "constructively" with the US, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said in Shanghai, "Our views on [US national missile defense] fully coincide with China's." President Putin is scheduled to meet Mr. Bush tomorrow in Slovenia.

A Chinese spokesman in Beijing told reporters, "China and Russia hold relatively the same position on the American plan to develop NMD."

A US missile shield would make China's nuclear deterrent obsolete, according to Chinese officials - and both Russia and China argue it could start a dangerous arms race in Asia.

China already relies on Russia as its main supplier of both conventional and high-tech weaponry, including destroyers currently deployed along the Taiwan Strait.

At first, the Shanghai Five was designed as a talking shop on minor issues of borders and territory among China and its Central Asian neighbors. Yet in a few short years, the group has begun to address political and military questions, and shared problems like organized crime. This year the meeting focuses on what from Beijing's perspective is the problem of Islamic fundamentalism, and what spokespersons for the six state leaders present agreed to call "terrorism, extremism, and separatism."

A report on domestic conditions issued in Beijing's top party circles two weeks ago devoted two chapters to Muslim separatists in the far west province of Xinjiang. That province shares a border with Afghanistan, and most experts think some militant training of young Chinese Muslims is conducted in the Islamic schools of Afghanistan and northern Pakistan. Leaders in Beijing worry about an Islamic cabal along its western border that would create momentum for Muslim separatism.

This week the Shanghai Five accepts a new member, Uzbekistan, to join Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Russia, and China, and will meet under a new name, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Reportedly, India and Pakistan are both interested in joining, possibly by the next year's meeting in Moscow.

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#8
Ekspert
No. 22
June 2001
COMPLEX OF A GREAT POWER AND A MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Relations of trust between Russia and China are impossible in the
foreseeable future
Author: Professor Vilya Gelbras of the Institute of Asian and African
States at Moscow State University
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
CHINA IS A SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC POWER, WITH SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC AMBITIONS. MOREOVER, IT IS A COUNTRY IMPLEMENTING ITS OWN PLANS FOR FOREIGN ECONOMIC EXPANSION. UNLIKE CHINA, RUSSIA LACKS A COHERENT STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT, TO SAY NOTHING OF A FOREIGN ECONOMIC STRATEGY OR A LONG-TERM ASIAN POLICY.
Russia should beware of China's plans for economic expansion

The leaders of Russia and China are optimistic in their evaluation of the state and prospects of bilateral relations on the eve of the two summer summits, in Shanghai and Genoa. Political relations between our nations rest on official declarations of "relations of trust and partnership" and on the concept of a multipolar world with a fairly strong anti-American bias.

But Moscow and Beijing understand and interpret the concept differently, and use it to promote different goals. The Russian political elite uses it as a means of regaining international status and influence lost with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. At the same time, Russia desperately needs normal relations with the United States - to say nothing of Europe and Japan.

As far as the Chinese political elite is concerned, the concept of a multipolar world is of more practical value. For Beijing, its a means of competing for the "voting rights" appropriate to China's status as one of the world's largest economies. Given its extensive trade ties with the United States, Europe, and Japan, anti-Americanism is also important for Beijing as a means of consolidating and expanding the gains it has already made.

On the other hand, the proclaimed unity of Russia's and China's political positions has not resulted in booming relations and trade contacts. The extent of China's foreign trade contacts with the West leave its relations and contacts with Russia far behind. Compared to the former, the latter are insignificant, save for one sphere: arms sales.

Essentially, Moscow and Beijing proclaim the special nature of their current partnership and future strategic cooperation. Russia is still mostly unaware of what it implies, but Beijing has been using this factor for its own benefit.

There are many official calls to promote economic contacts between our states. Russia and China have come up with plenty of economic projects and a great many protocols of intent have been signed, most of them never to be realized. Neither have we reached mutual trade turnover of $20 billion, which had been the goal for 2000. We have had to be content with a modest $8 billion instead.

There is only minimal growth in official mutual trade to show for the efforts of the two governments over the last five years. It has become clear that facilitating economic development had never been a priority in the policies of Moscow and Beijing until 2000.

Because of globalization, the Asia-Pacific region now produces two-thirds of the global GDP. Russia's positions in North-East, East, South-East, and South Asia are extremely weak. Essentially, they boil down to high-flown declarations and rest on arms sales only. If this situation persists, Russia is doomed to the role of an economic dwarf - with all that it implies.

Hence the question: does Russia intend to, and can it, become an economically important state in the Asia-Pacific region? If it does, what is it going to do and when? Unfortunately, these questions remain unanswered.

Russia has been in the markets of the Asia-Pacific region states mostly thanks to accords with their governments, i.e. not through free-market relations. Most Russian efforts to make a breakthrough and gain access to these markets have failed.

China is no exception in this respect. Russian producers have not won a single tender on the territory of this "strategic partner". Russian producers are not seen as serious rivals in the Asia-Pacific region or in China.

Unlike Russia, China does have a serious foreign economic strategy.

The XV Congress of the Communist Party of China (1997) proclaimed the need to make the national economy export-oriented. Foreign economic expansion will proceed in several areas: foreign trade, foreign investment, establishment of trans-national corporations.

China's foreign economic expansion will affect Russia greatly, because Russia is a neighbor with the raw materials China needs and with a colossal market for Chinese-made goods and commodities. On the other hand, China will soon be easily able to provide the whole population of Russia with everything it needs, since Russia's population is only the equivalent of two or three sparsely-populated Chinese provinces.

Unlike China, Russia lacks a coherent strategy of development, to say nothing of a foreign economic strategy or a long-term Asian policy. As a result, state structures in Russia are forced to just respond to the problems that arise.

President Putin said in an article titled "Russia: New Asian Prospects" last year that the list of international projects includes "major plans for an energy bridge from Russia to Japan via Sakhalin, gas pipelines from the Tomsk region to western China, and from the Irkutsk region to eastern China and on to North and South Korea."

A simple look at a map shows that once these projects have been implemented, western and eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East will have become incorporated into the system of economic relations of the Asia-Pacific region. Stability in the Asia-Pacific will greatly depend on Russia as supplier of energy. Russia in its turn will become seriously interested in the stability and economic prosperity of the buyers of its energy resources. These are natural consequences of globalization.

But the resources for mutual cooperation are disproportionate: the colossal economic and demographic resources of our Asian neighbors, versus the economically backward and underpopulated Siberia and Russian Far East. Among other things, the advance into the global market will require from China a solution to the problem of oil and gas supplies. With its unmatched natural resources wealth, Russia is virtually a monopolist in the sale of natural resources in the region. Analysis of trade relations shows at the same time that Russia frequently succumbs to pressure from its trade partners: instead of acting like a monopolist seller, it treats them as monopolist buyers. The economic strength of one partner enables them to delay negotiations and force unprofitable conditions on the other partner.

To date, China has called the tune - for example, it objected to building a pipeline via Mongolia, even though the route would be almost 1,000 kilometers shorter. The position of the monopolist seller, Russia, is weak. The buyers are not competing with each other, and Russia lacks options for sales - Europe is too distant, its market divided long ago. The interested states in their turn retain freedom of choice.

Besides, the future of the projects (and the entire volume and nature of foreign economic contacts between Russia and China as such) will be greatly affected by the nature of Beijing's future energy strategy. To continue its work on these projects (and joint oil and gas projects with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan), Beijing will have to choose between two options for providing its economy with the natural gas and oil it needs: developing its own deposits, or getting oil and gas from Russia and Central Asia.

The advantages of the former option include development of new territories, economic growth for remote regions, and employment. At the same time, this choice will demand a lot of investment, and is generally expensive.

The latter option is attractive due to the better quality of raw materials, relatively less investment required, speed of implementation, and prospects for on-selling to the Asia-Pacific region, primarily Japan and South Korea. Along with that, it will facilitate the development of a considerable part of Russia (and Central Asian states), a detail which may be beyond the priorities of China's export strategy. Indirectly, this assumption may be confirmed by China's decision to create strategic oil reserves. State officials in Beijing say that about $60 billion may be invested in the project.

All this makes it clear that the future of oil and gas projects proposed by Russia depends entirely on Beijing's decision.

It is hard to say how successful China's strategy is proving to be. One thing is clear in any case - its implementation will make competition on global markets fiercer and processes of globalization more intensive. All this will especially affect countries with weak positions in the global financial and goods markets. Russia should become aware of the true nature of the situation beyond its eastern borders. China is a significant economic power, with significant economic ambitions. Moreover, it is a country implementing its own plans for foreign economic expansion.

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#9
Baltimore Sun
June 14, 2001
Pardons turn rare in Putin's Russia
Critics say backing harsh terms is way to strengthen state; 'Dictatorship of law'
By Kathy Lally
Sun Foreign Staff

MOSCOW - Nearly four years ago, Yelena Kozlova stole a goat worth $20 to feed her three small, hungry children. Today, she is still in prison, serving a term of five years and six months, despite a plea from the Presidential Pardons Commission to free her.

Until last fall, the Pardons Commission offered Russia's 1 million prisoners perhaps their only hope for compassion in a legal system widely described here as blind to circumstance and extraordinarily harsh in its punishments. Now, that hope is dying.

In an abrupt departure from the practice of the past nine years, President Vladimir V. Putin apparently has stopped granting the thousands of pardons recommended every year by the commission, made up of citizen volunteers appointed by the president.

Though Putin has made no public comments about the pardons, his critics interpret the change as part of the president's well-known desire to strengthen the state.

"It's Putin's idea of a strong state," says Vladimir Oivin, deputy director of the Glasnost human rights foundation, "which he expressed some time ago when he said he was in favor of a 'dictatorship of law."'

In August, Putin appointed Viktor P. Ivanov, an old colleague from the St. Petersburg KGB (the old Soviet secret police), as his assistant for legal affairs and deputy head of his administration.

Since then, Oivin says, the presidential administration has been working against the Pardons Commission.

"They have demonstrated their disregard for public organizations, and for the Pardons Commission, which is one of the few structures of a civil society," Oivin says. "They want to make the regime tougher, to strengthen the secret services and punitive organs, including the courts.

"If there are too many pardons, it would, they believe, testify to the bad job they are doing and the mistakes they are making, giving such unjust sentences."

Alexander Smirnov, a presidential spokesman, explained the interruption in pardons as a need to have the list of pardons approved by the various ministries involved in the legal system before the president considers them.

"The idea that the president doesn't want to give pardons is hardly possible," he said.

Since September, according to Anatoly I. Pristavkin, chairman of the Pardons Commission, Putin has granted only one pardon - to Edmond Pope, a retired American naval intelligence officer convicted of spying. In 1999, Pristavkin says, Putin approved 12,800 pardons.

Pristavkin, who was appointed chairman when President Boris N. Yeltsin established the commission, blames Ivanov and officials from the Justice and Interior ministries for the change.

"Their aim is to keep everyone in prison," he says, "even the poorest and most unfortunate. Ivanov thinks bureaucrats are better judges of pardons than society."

Opponents of the commission, he says, include officials who think that the more people in prison camps, the larger the unpaid labor force.

"Of course they need people to build their dachas for free," he says, referring to weekend houses.

Last week, Pristavkin wrote a letter to Putin, informing the president that the commission had recommended pardons for Yelena Kozlova and 2,564 other prisoners last fall. On May 29, Pristavkin said, Ivanov sent the commission a letter from the Justice Ministry, dated May 10, which declared that only 118 of those prisoners should be considered for pardons because the others, including Kozlova, had been convicted of "grave crimes."

Kozlova (whose name, ironically, comes from the word for goat) had already served three years and four months of her 5 1/2 -year sentence for stealing the goat.

Others who were stricken from the list because of "grave crimes," Pristavkin wrote, included:

P. V. Menchishin, a father of three small children who stole a gas tank worth $10.80. He has already served three years and three months of his sentence of four years and two months.

S. A. Mozgunova, a widow with a disabled 4-year-old son who is serving five years for stealing a purse with $31 in it.

V. N. Ponkratov, a disabled pensioner who got five years for stealing two electric meters worth $9.70.

V. N. Postokhailov, who is serving five years for stealing three chickens and two turkeys worth $13. "In the villages, the accused are not protected at all," Pristavkin says. "They cannot hire lawyers. And our repressive court system puts many people in prison for crimes that don't necessarily demand imprisonment."

In a country where most people still don't have the right to a jury trial, the commission has offered a rare opportunity for societal influence on court decisions. Russia is experimenting with jury trials, but only nine of the country's 89 regions have them. The 17 members of the commission include a priest, a former dissident, a surgeon, a theater director, a writer and a lawyer.

They try to understand why a murderer might get eight years while a mother of two is sentenced to more than four years for stealing milk from the farm where she worked. The milk was valued at less than $2, and the woman has not been pardoned. Any energetic policeman in Moscow can earn much more than that in bribes every day, and such crimes are almost never prosecuted.

"Of course it's absurd to give such long terms," says Valery Borschev, a member of the pardons commission and an adviser to parliament, "but that's what we have in the Criminal Code."

The worst criminals usually get off, says Pristavkin, but the lesser, more defenseless ones are relentlessly pursued as police and prosecutors attempt to produce statistics showing they are tough on crime.

"The cruelty of the courts is always surprising," he says.

The state Duma, the lower house of parliament, is considering laws that would take into account whether a person is a first-time offender and the nature of the crime, Borschev says.

"As for the situation with the process of pardoning," he says, "the deputies are well aware of it, but the majority are pro-president and they don't react in any way."

Ivanov, he says, has been lobbying hard to put the responsibility for pardons in the Justice Ministry.

"Of course it's connected with Putin's idea to strengthen the state," Borschev says. "But it's only making the authorities more and more distant from society, which is not good for the people or for the authorities."

Pristavkin says he recently discovered, accidentally, that the Justice Ministry - which runs the prisons - sent wardens a directive telling them to cut down on the number of appeals for pardons. Prisoners can make an appeal only if the warden supports them.

"We used to have up to 500 appeals a week," he says. "Last week, we had 30."

The commission, he says, has asked for a meeting with Putin but so far has not received a reply.

"We'd like to ask him, 'Are you in favor of putting still more people in prison?' If so, we can no nothing. We'll wave goodbye, and our families will sigh with relief at having us home again. I'll start writing books."

Pristavkin, who is 69, was a well-known writer before he accepted the commission assignment. He was most famous for a 1987 book, "A Golden Cloud Slept," which told about the suffering of the Chechen people deported by Stalin during World War II. He himself was an orphan, often cruelly treated as a child and was once imprisoned for stealing a cucumber.

The experience made him care only more deeply about injustice.

"We have been called an island of mercy in a sea of cruelty," he says.

Not long ago, he says, a member of the Constitutional Court offered a toast to the commission.

"I don't have time to watch television or read the newspaper," he quotes the judge as saying. "I look out the window and ask - 'Does the Pristavkin Commission still exist?' 'Yes,' I tell myself, 'it does.' And it means the country is still alive and democratic."

No one knows, Pristavkin says, how long the answer will be "yes."

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#10
Excerpt
PIR Center
Center for Policy Studies in Russia
www.pircenter.org
Vladimir A. Orlov, Director
2001, June 18. Report at the Carnegie Conference

RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION POLICY UNDER
PRESIDENT PUTIN

Vladimir Putin has actually been leading Russia since August 9, 1999, when President Yeltsin, who could hardly perform his duties by that time, appointed him Prime Minister and successor. On December 31, 1999, Vladimir Putin was officially declared Acting President. On March 26, 2000, he was elected President of Russia by receiving 53% of votes. His inauguration took place on May 7, 2000. The emergence of new president in Russia and the December 1999 parliamentary elections signified the new stage in the development of Russia.

At present, all major characteristics of the transition are in place. New Russian authorities review political processes and their results and work out proposals to adjust the strategy or to formulate completely new approaches for the next three-seven years.

Foreign policy, as well as defense and national security policy, are not exceptions. In 2000, three key documents were adopted in an attempt to lay down the strategy for the period of post-transition: the National Security Concept (January 2000), the Military Doctrine (April 2000) and the new Foreign Policy Concept (June 2000).

The adoption of these documents is quite logical, for Russia has been seeking its role and position in international affairs during the recent decade. The process is quite long and not always coherent, but we may presume that nowadays, development of the Russian foreign and security policies is being completed. Two new concepts and the doctrine summarize the experience of the past decade, comprise successful positions and approaches and set forth new strategic goals .

It is noteworthy that the new documents have gained support of major political forces in Russia. In assessing Putin's new course, one should take into account that its implementation is facilitated by political and economic stability, which has emerged in Russia for the first time in the last 15 years.

New documents contain some substantial novelty concerning national priorities, specific assessments, and tools to pursue foreign policy, defense and geo-strategic goals. In brief, these priorities can be reduced to realism and pragmatism whether it concerns global or regional tasks.

In the future, Russia will attempt to act, basing on its capabilities rather than any abstract values and notions. Nowadays, Russia gives more realistic assessment of the situation in the world, of its own objectives and abilities. Though Moscow argues in public that it will not be satisfied with a modest role in new world order, new principles and objectives actually imply Russia's diminishing participation in solving many global and regional problems. Russia tries to focus on such areas and regions that are vital for its national interests and where Moscow may have significant influence on the situation. Realism means retreat from the established vision of international security and world affairs, but it provides for recognition of such facts, as the existence of the only superpower, continued importance of force in international relations, emergence of active non-state actors on the global arena (international terrorist groups, transnational criminal organizations, etc.).

Another important attribute that Russian foreign and security policy is supposed to gain is pragmatism. At present, the foreign policy should become "efficient assistant in solving the problems of domestic development. We realize that our foreign policy resources are objectively limited at the moment. Hence, they should be concentrated in the areas that are vitally important for the Russian state. These are, above all, maintenance of security and creation of maximum favorable conditions for progressive economic development" .

Russia no longer intends to demonstrate its flag in distant regions, does not strive for diplomatic presence for the sake of presence. Russia foreign policy should be "more profitable in political and economic terms". This also means that in the next few years the role of economic diplomacy will grow.

Diplomats and the military follow the new strategic course and try to improve the imbalance and to prevent domination of the only superpower. These objectives determine mostly Russia's strategic relations with the United States.

According to some experts, the 1999 parliamentary and the 2000 presidential elections proved that the country began to come to consensus: to raise the status of Russia, surer policy towards the West is required. This consensus is based on the following principles that limit the field of foreign policy maneuver for the President:

Russia can preserve its Great Power status only through the firmest measures to maintain its unity and integrity;

Nuclear weapons are a key factor to preserve Russia's weight in the world and to guarantee it against any pressure on the part of NATO;

Russia's partnership with the West in the first years of democratic reforms weakened Russia's influence on world affairs and brought no dividends to the state and the people;

Despite a complicated relationship with the West, Russia is not interested in encouraging confrontation in the relations or in accepting the force scenario;

Taking into account the national interests and the existing international commitments, Russia should strengthen and develop the WMD nonproliferation regime.

Hence, as we may see, WMD nonproliferation issues remain one of the links for Russia and the West in general and for Russia and the United States in particular....

The National Security Concept signed by Acting President Putin and developed during his work in the Security Council has some different approaches towards WMD nonproliferation in distinction to the strategic documents of Yeltsin's era. The Concept maintains, "international relations are being shaped in the conditions when some states strive to enhance their influence on international politics by developing weapons of mass destruction". As far as nuclear nonproliferation is concerned, "Russia and other states continue to have objective common interests" in this area.

One of the key tasks in maintaining Russia's national security is to strengthen the nonproliferation of WMD and delivery systems, whereas corresponding threats make the most serious challenge to Russian security .

The 2000 Military Doctrine nuclear and missile proliferation is regarded as one of the major factors contributing to military-political developments. The document states that Russia "stands for universality of the regime of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems, for enhancing efficiency of this regime, for moratorium and comprehensive test ban."

When primary threats to military security are analyzed, the Doctrine argues, "under the current circumstances, the threat of direct military aggression in traditional forms against Russia or its allies has decreased, thanks to positive changes in international environment, Russia's commitment to peaceful foreign policy, maintenance of sufficient military might, above all nuclear deterrence potential."

Since the threat of direct aggression, including nuclear attack, is considered to be distant, Russia's major nuclear-related external threats are "the activities aimed at undermining global and regional stability through interdicting the work of Russian systems of state and military control, systems providing for the normal functioning and combat viability of the strategic nuclear forces, missile attack early warning, missile defense, controlling outer space, and for the normal functioning of nuclear munitions storage facilities, nuclear energy facilities, nuclear and chemical industry facilities, and other potentially dangerous objects."

However, practical implementation of WMD nonproliferation policy was quite inconsistent during the first year of Putin's presidency.

On the one hand, Russia took quite a tough position on the eve of the 2000 NPT Review Conference and at the initial stage of this forum. It seemed that the delegation had to follow instructions from Moscow and did its best to ensure that the term "strategic stability" be included in the final documents. The obsession with this goal indicated Russia's commitment to its position on the ABM/NMD issues. On the other hand, Russia helped to overcome the stalemate at the Conference, demonstrated flexibility and agreed to some radical disarmament demands of the New Agenda Coalition for the sake of passing the Final Document.

On the one hand, Russia seemed to strengthen export controls and tracked sensitive contracts that could undermine national security. On the other hand, the President was convinced by the Minatom to supply nuclear fuel for the Tarapur NPP (India) and this was a serious blow to Russian obligations to the NSG.

Moreover, the President kept silent, when in December 2000 one of the ministers argued on behalf of Russia that Moscow might withdraw from the NSG and other international export control regimes, "if current restrictions on cooperation in peaceful use of nuclear energy were not modified."

Such position runs counter to the Russian official policy towards the NSG. This course have recently been clearly explained by a senior official of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is in charge of forming and coordinating Russian foreign policy. "The Nuclear Suppliers Group has become an essential mechanism of control over nuclear export. We presume that the activities of the group, spanning a quarter of a century, have contributed to strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime, which eventually met the interests of global and regional stability.".... To sum up Russia's nonproliferation policy in 1991-2001, one has to admit that despite some inconsistency (which still exists), Russian authorities had no political intentions and made no practical steps to support military nuclear programs of the states of concern. Any attempts of the lobbyist groups and some officials to circumvent these norms have normally been nipped in the bud.

At this time Russia experienced fear, suspicion and diffidence even of the rumors that some nuclear instability might emerge near its borders. The state has no sufficient information resources to ensure adequate identification of possible new proliferation risks. Russia has not enough financial resources or any political levers to influence the situation in the states of concern. This is why Moscow prefers to play safe and to follow the worst-case scenario. According to the assessments of the Russian Security Council, there is "the trend of enlarging the memberships of nuclear and missile clubs, i.e. there are a number of states that cannot restrain their ambitions concerning WMD and delivery systems. The areas of most grave concern are the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Far East. We do our best to prevent this list from growing. [...] Globalization has made us take these threats even more seriously. It would be not reasonable to downplay them while the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating" .

The aforementioned foreign policy priorities do not enable Russia to recognize explicitly some of its concerns related to military nuclear programs of some third nations. The lack of public statements does not mean that there are no such apprehensions.

One cannot preclude that Putin's foreign policy pragmatism would lead to nuclear cooperation to such extent that Russia would circumvent its international commitments or profit from vague restrictions. Nonetheless, Moscow would pursue such policy only towards its long-term strategic partners, rather than towards potential troublemakers. This is why Russia would hardly agree to provide nuclear assistance to East Asia (China, North Korea) or the Middle East (Iran, Syria, Libya), even if Moscow got such requests. Perhaps, the only state that theoretically may count on Russia's help is India, but Moscow still refuses to recognize India's nuclear-weapon state status.

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