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CDI Russia Weekly          Issue #132 December 15, 2000  

EDITED BY DAVID JOHNSON
The CDI Russia Weekly is a weekly e-mail newsletter that carries news and analysis on all aspects of today's Russia, including political, economic, social, military, and foreign policy issues. With funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the CDI Russia Weekly is a project of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information (CDI), a nonprofit research and education organization.

To receive a free subscription, e-mail David Johnson at djohnson@cdi.org


CDI RUSSIA WEEKLY - #132
15 December 2000
Edited by David Johnson
Center for Defense Information
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036
phone: 202-332-0600; fax:202-462-4559
djohnson@cdi.org


CONTENTS:

1. AFP
Putin put in spotlight by Russia's staged spy scandal: analysts.
 
2. Itar-Tass Rogozin Optimistic about Bush Presidency.
 
3. strana.ru New U.S. Administration will pursue a tougher policy with regard to Russia, says Russian political scientist.
 
4. The
Globe and Mail

(Canada)
Geoffrey York
Chrystia Freeland
'We are not looking for enemies.' Putin content with smaller Russian military, but not with U.S. throwing its weight around.
 
5. Moscow Times
Andrew Wilson
Nina Bachkatov
Russia and Europe.
 
6. Interfax Russia thinks EU potentially more promising security partner than NATO
 
7. Itar-Tass Russia recycles 100 tonnes of arms-grade uranium.
 
8. Jamestown
Foundation
Monitor
RUSSIAN GENERAL CHARGED IN MAJOR FUNDS SCANDAL.
 
9. Moscow Times
Peter Ekman
End of the Era of Great Expectations.
 
10. RFE/RL
Jean-Christophe Peuch
Moscow Still Seen As A Threat To Stability In South Caucasus.
 
11. AFP Castro and Putin denounced US domination during historic summit.
 
12. Rossiyskaya
Gazeta
Moscow Daily Slams 'Exaggerated' Media Reaction to Tu-95MS Arctic Training.
 
13. MSNBC
Michael Moran
Rice: A Russophile with Bush's ear.
As national security adviser, Rice would push policy of restraint.




#1
Putin put in spotlight by Russia's staged spy scandal: analysts

MOSCOW, Dec 14 (AFP) -
Stage-managed to cast President Vladimir Putin in the most favourable light, the Edmond Pope spy drama showed that Russia has yet to bring down the curtain on its Cold War culture of espionage, analysts said Thursday.

Convicted spy Pope walked free early Thursday from a Moscow jail after Putin pardoned the cancer-stricken businessman, who was sentenced last week to 20 years of hard labour in a Siberian prison camp.

Yet few commentators expressed suprise over a dramatic release that had, in fact, been routinely predicted ever since Pope's six-week trial on espionage charges opened at a Moscow city court on October 20.

There had been a general expectation, or at least a rumour, that Pope, 54, would be convicted and then pardoned for humanitarian reasons, enabling Putin to appear both tough at home and tender on the international front.

"The whole thing is just a game but it is a very effective one," analyst Yury Korgunyuk of Moscow's Indem Foundation, told AFP.

The spy spat and its mock superpower standoff between Moscow and Washington, while evoking nostalgia for the Cold War, had also enabled Putin, a former KGB spy, to look tough in front of the Russians, Yevgeny Volk of the Heritage Foundation said.

Other commentators noted that by pardoning Pope, instead of halting the closed-door trial and throwing out its seemingly dubious charges, the Russian leader could appear "hard but fair."

"It was important for Putin, as a former KGB agent, to persevere with the investigation launched by the Russian secret services (FSB, formerly KGB), and then for Putin, as president, to come across as a big-hearted person," Volk added.

The freed spy, who reportedly lost 25 pounds and two teeth during his jail term, headed straight for Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport and flew out of Russia aboard a US plane bound for a military base in Germany.

Putin signed the pardon decree shortly before leaving on an official visit to Cuba on Wednesday, the Kremlin confirmed.

"Being guided by humanitarian principles, and taking into account the convict's health and his personal plea as well as the good relations between Russia and the United States, I decree that Edmond Pope be pardoned and released from serving his term in jail," Putin said in the official pardon document.

But the Russian leader Putin was not the only actor in the Pope drama to make a well-timed entrance in the final act before bringing the curtain down with a happy ending.

US President Bill Clinton, who had earlier telephoned Putin urging him to pardon Pope, was word-perfect in a supporting role that further helped to boost Putin's image as a touchy-feely kind of politician.

Clinton hailed the Russian leader's act of clemency Thursday, stressing how much he "appreciated" Putin's mercy mission.

"I welcome today's release of Edmond Pope after eight months of detention in Russia and appreciate President Putin's decision to pardon Mr Pope," the US president said in a statement issued by White House officials in London, where he was on an official visit.

Even Pope himself seemed keen to get in on the act, informing his FSB interrogators Thursday that he felt "not bad" after his ordeal, adding, in comments broadcast on the private NTV channel: "There is joy."

"Pope says he loves the Russian people and this feeling only got stronger during his stay in Lefortovo prison," his lawyer Pavel Astakhov remarked, somewhat improbably, to Moscow's Echo radio.

Pope -- who suffers from a rare form of bone cancer -- has consistently protested his innocence of espionage, for which he was convicted on December 6, ever since he was first arrested by the FSB in April.

However, Astakhov hailed Putin's decision -- which is an act of clemency and does not overturn the court's verdict -- as a magnanimous gesture.

Pope was sentenced last week to 20 years' hard labour in a Siberian prison camp for obtaining what Moscow said were classified blueprints of the Shkval (Squall) torpedo and delivering them to a foreign state.

During his six-week trial, Pope conceded that he had purchased documents relating to Russia's underwater Shkval torpedo for his hi-tech company, but argued that the information was already in the public domain.

It was the first spy trial of a US national in Russia in 40 years. The last involved the pilot of a U2 spy plane, Gary Powers, who was shot down over Russia in 1960 and convicted of espionage the following year.

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#2
Rogozin Optimistic about Bush Presidency.

MOSCOW, December 14 (Itar-Tass) - After George Bush Jr. becomes U.S. president, he will be a predictable and consistent international partner for Russia, Dmitri Rogozin, head of the Duma committee for international affairs, told Tass on Thursday. In his opinion, "the officially confirmed victory of the Republican candidate at the presidential election means for Russia the prospect of the coming to power in the United States of the administration, which will focus its attention on the solution of their own problems, on the strengthening of domestic security, and will not assume the role of a global Messiah, which Democrats sometimes liked to do."

"According to the existing information, George Bush relies on the support of a rather strong and skilled foreign policy team. Russian officials have already established contacts with some of its members," Rogozin continued. After the new U.S. president takes office, "the first thing for us to do is to convince the Republican Administration that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of international security, and its giving up may only lead to the isolation of the United States in the international arena."

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#3
strana.ru
December 14, 2000
New U.S. Administration will pursue a tougher policy with regard to Russia, says Russian political scientist

Washignton's stance on deployment of a National Missile Defense system will get tougher when Republican George Bush becomes U.S. President, predicts Sergei Karaganov, Chief of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of Russia and deputy director of the Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences.

Karaganov does not rule out that the Republicans, as they place the legislative and executive power branches in the U.S. under their control, "will throw big money into development of missile defense, having in mind not just building a shield but making a new technological breakthrough." At the same time, he believes that the Republican Administration may not respond to Russians' call for starting talks on the START-3 treaty.

In Karaganov's view, a considerable part of foreign policy experts in the Republican Party believe that the U.S. does need these talks and Americans should take decisions on reducing or modernizing their armed forces irrespective of any talks. "It is not entirely clear at present whether this ideology will be realized," Karaganov said.

On the whole, Karaganov believes that the Republicans will pursue a tougher policy with regard to Russia than the Clinton Administration did. In his view, the team of George Bush Jr. will, on the one hand, pay greater attention to Russia as a major geopolitical player, and, on the other hand, it will grow more indifferent to Russia's domestic issues, and its attempts to influence Russia's home policy will decrease. This concerns, in particular, Chechnya, human rights and other similar issues, the expert pointed out.

Besides, Karaganov says, the Republicans will definitely insist that other states stop cooperating with the countries suspected of developing mass destruction weapons, as, for instance, Iran and Iraq.

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#4
The Globe and Mail (Canada)
December 14, 2000
'We are not looking for enemies'
Putin content with smaller Russian military, but not with U.S. throwing its weight around

GEOFFREY YORK AND CHRYSTIA FREELAND

MOSCOW -- After decades of striving for military supremacy, the Kremlin wants a smaller, cheaper army that doesn't "suck blood" from its economy, President Vladimir Putin says.

In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Mr. Putin, who arrives in Ottawa on Sunday for his first state visit to Canada, revealed a new strategic calculus that is transforming Russia's view of itself and the world.

The economy, not the military, is his new battle cry.

The 48-year-old former KGB officer swept to power last year on the strength of his hawkish rhetoric and his military campaign in Chechnya. But today he portrays himself as a pragmatist who has discovered the economic fruits of a downsized army.

"Competition today has shifted from the military sphere to the economic sphere," Mr. Putin said in the interview from the Kremlin. "We have to look at things realistically. In the global list of economically developed countries, Russia is located in the middle."

While many Russian nationalists yearn for the days when the Soviet Union was a mighty superpower, Mr. Putin gave a surprisingly humble view of Russia's place in the world and the advantages of its more modest ambitions.

"We are satisfied with our present position because it doesn't demand excessive effort in the defence field. It doesn't suck blood from the economy of our country, even though we are still spending quite a lot to maintain the defence system of our state."

Before launching his seven-day tour of Cuba and Canada, Mr. Putin gave a 70-minute interview to The Globe and Mail, CBC and CTV, which will also be broadcast on Russian state television.

While lauding the benefits of a smaller military, Mr. Putin remains committed to an assertive view of Russia's strategic interests. He made it clear Russia is still strongly opposed to U.S. military domination and the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

"The world cannot develop effectively and positively if one state has a monopoly on taking and implementing whatever decisions it wants," Mr. Putin said in a clear reference to the United States.

"In the history of mankind, such a drive for a monopoly has never ended well. For that reason, we are constantly proposing a different democratic world structure."

But his thinly veiled jab at the United States was accompanied by a plea for nuclear co-operation -- a mission, he said, where Canadian help could be useful.

Canada and Russia have "very close" positions in support of a 1972 arms-control treaty that Washington wants to change in order to build an antimissile defence system, Mr. Putin said. By finding "points of agreement" with Russia on the arms dispute, Canada could help resolve one of the world's top security problems.

"We are not looking for enemies. . . . The lower the level of nuclear conflict between the main nuclear states, the better. That's why we call upon the world community and our partners in the nuclear club to act together to ease the nuclear confrontation."

Asked about Russian fighter jets that buzzed a U.S. aircraft carrier in October, taking photos of its flight deck, Mr. Putin insisted it was "nothing unusual" and that U.S. sailors "treated it quite calmly, like an ordinary event."

He also defended the brutal war in Chechnya, calling it an action against "terrorists" and "fanatics" who threaten the civilized world. "No humanitarian rules should be applied to terrorists." But a final settlement of the Chechnya conflict "can be reached only by legal and political means," he said.

Russian liberals have sharply criticized Mr. Putin for many recent actions, including the revival of the Soviet national anthem and the jailing of businessman Vladimir Gusinsky, who created Russia's biggest private media empire.

None of these moves, he responded, are a threat to Russian democracy or media freedom.

"I assure you that there is no danger that the structure of democratic society, which was built over the past 10 years, could be dismantled," he said.

"When we speak of the strengthening of the state, we don't mean the curtailment of democratic freedoms, because without adequately developed democratic institutions for the protection of human rights -- including in business -- the market economy cannot develop."

Mr. Putin conceded, however, that his drive to strengthen Russia could pose some dangers for civil society. "The state always tries to create the most favourable conditions for itself and tries to forbid everything. This is true not just in Russia, but in all other countries."

Mr. Putin said he is confident Russia's constitution and legal system -- often criticized by outsiders as corrupt and vulnerable to political manipulation -- are strong enough to resist these pressures.

But he had no such assurances to offer the oligarchs, a small group of tycoons who rose to power during the presidency of Boris Yeltsin and against whom Mr. Putin has launched a high-profile campaign.

"They see the mass media as their chief instrument of influence over the state. They have all become accustomed, especially recently, to getting everything they want from the state and using it as they want. They don't want to live in accordance with the law, and I don't think that's right."

On the revival of the Soviet anthem, Mr. Putin said he respected the views of liberals who associate it with Joseph Stalin, the dictator who commissioned the song in the 1940s. "Many people still remember the full horrors of Stalin's prison camps, and their wounds are still bleeding."

But many of Russia's greatest achievements are linked to the Soviet period and its symbols, Mr. Putin said.

"Take the first flight of man in space. That was a Soviet man, Yuri Gagarin. That flight was made possible by the labour of millions of citizens of my country, who sacrificed everything. And they have the right to take something into today's life . . . something to remind them of their earlier life."

Mr. Yeltsin is among the many Russians who have criticized the adoption of the Soviet anthem. This is a "logical" and "principled" stand for Mr. Yeltsin to take, since he is a long-time fighter against communism, Mr. Putin said.

The Putin file Personal: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born Oct. 7, 1952, in St. Petersburg (then called Leningrad). He and his wife, Lyudmila, have two teenaged daughters, Katya and Maria. Education: Mr. Putin studied law at Leningrad State University between 1970 and 1975. Career: He joined Moscow's foreign-intelligence training unit in 1982 after being recruited by the KGB. He is believed by some German sources to have spied in West Germany between 1982 and 1984. He was officially posted in Dresden, East Germany, between 1985 and 1990 before returning to the Soviet Union and retiring from the KGB. After a brief turn in the foreign-affairs department at Leningrad State University, he launched his political career as adviser to Leningrad mayor Anatoly Sobchak. He joined the Kremlin staff in 1996 and was appointed director of the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, in 1998. President Boris Yeltsin named him prime minister in August, 1999, then acting president when Mr. Yeltsin resigned on Dec. 31, 1999. Mr. Putin was elected president in March. Quote: "Competition today has shifted from the military sphere to the economic sphere. We have to look at things realistically."

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#5
Moscow Times
December 14, 2000
Russia and Europe
By Andrew Wilson and Nina Bachkatov

Andrew Wilson and Nina Bachkatov are co-editors of the European Press Agency's monthly intelligence report "Inside Russia and the FSU." They contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

Recent developments - including plans for enlarging the European Union, uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election and President Vladimir Putin's ongoing efforts to forge a new Russian foreign policy - indicate an opportunity to enter a new phase in Russia's relations with Europe. The Brussels-based European Press Agency has just completed a study of this subject, examining this dynamic from Mikhail Gorbachev's proposal for "a common European home" to talk of a "strategic partnership" during November's EU-Russian summit.

Our study found plenty wrong with the EU's programs in the 1990s. The lesson that European models may not always be the right ones for Russia was learned at the cost of misspent billions. But today there are new minds at work in Brussels, people concerned not just with economic and commercial relations that were the basis of the 1994 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, but with broader political and security questions.

The key step was last year's decision to establish a common foreign and security policy and the appointment of former NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana to develop it. The new EU foreign affairs commissioner, Chris Patten, has also shown lively interest in Russia.

Experience in the Balkans has shown that there can be no stability for Europe without the active cooperation of Russia. And without such cooperation, plans for the EU's expansion will be seriously undermined. At the same time Europe is deeply interested in the stability of Russia itself.

Russia has no objection to the enlargement of the European Union, in contrast to its fierce opposition to the further enlargement of NATO. Apart from the attraction of long-term trading arrangements is the fact that applicants for membership include difficult neighbors on whom EU rules may have a restraining influence. But what can be done to take full advantage of these favorable circumstances?

First it is necessary to know what should not be done or even attempted. This particularly concerns steps being taken to create an EU military capability. On the face of it, the creation of a European peacekeeping force should be welcome to Russia, which has long called for European solutions to European situations. But much depends on how that force is designed. The Russians can be supportive if the force is for peacekeeping within Europe, if Russia is kept fully informed about its development and possible missions, and if Russia, like other non-EU countries, is on the list of force providers. In order to do this, Brussels must create a mechanism similar to the Russia-NATO permanent joint council.

What certainly will not attract Russian support is anything that looks like a proxy arm of NATO. And since Russian policy-makers are realistic enough to see the limitations imposed on Europe by its military dependence on NATO logistic and other resources, they are unlikely to go further than trying to persuade the EU to maintain whatever autonomy it can.

However, this leaves scope for action on important advances in the economic and political aspects of the EU-Russian relationship. More than ever before, Europe has come to acknowledge the dependence of its economic and industrial expansion on Russian oil, gas and electricity supplies.

For geographical reasons, Russian gas and oil supplies will always be cheaper for Europe than those of any other foreign source. They may also be more reliable. Other Russian imports will also have a place. However, Russia must recognize that the present market for its manufactures is closer to home - in the CIS and southward.

In the political field, too, there are limits to a "strategic relationship." Russia must by now understand the futility of earlier attempts to split Europe from its relationship with North America. Ties of history, trade and sentiment are simply too strong to be exchanged for an alternative - to say nothing of Europe's continued reliance, despite changes since the Cold War's end, on the U.S. security guarantee.

On the other hand, there is no shortage of Europeans sharing Russia's apprehensions about the effects of a "uni-polar" world, in which Europe would be dominated by the interests of the other side of the Atlantic. A strengthened European relationship with Russia would serve two purposes in addition to the obvious one of cementing stability.

First, it would enhance Europe's sense of collective autonomy. Second, it would provide Russia with a valuable interlocutor inside the wider Russia-Europe-U.S. relationship. Particularly, it could show, in some cases of dispute, that Russia's is not a lone voice. For instance, no one would count on Europe's swaying the United States against deploying a national missile defense, but if Europe and Russia are able to adopt a common position, then the discussion's dynamics would be altered. Finally, for Europe's relations with Russia to have a firm basis in popular support, it is necessary to refresh each side's cultural attitudes. Russians need to understand that when Europeans speak against horrendous excesses on both sides in Chechnya, it is not necessarily an echo of the Cold War.

Similarly, Europeans need to be reminded of the long history that makes Russia part of the European heritage. Certainly Russia's claim in this regard is considerably greater than Turkey's. Europe could benefit from looking at some of the better aspects of Russian society and seeing if it cannot extract lessons useful for itself.

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#6
Russia thinks EU potentially more promising security partner than NATO
Interfax

Moscow, 14 December: Russia believes that the European Union "can become a more promising partner for cooperation in the sphere of security than NATO," First Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Avdeyev said at the Russian-Norwegian seminar devoted to European integration, which opened in Moscow today.

"This is just a statement as of yet, and in the future everything will depend on the dynamism of the European Union," he said.

Avdeyev said he believes that "the endurance of our relations with the EU will be tested by the work on the agreements on ensuring unrestricted relations between the Kaliningrad Region and the rest of Russia, and also on the creation of favourable conditions for the development of this region of Russia's external economic relations."

At the same time, according to the first deputy foreign minister, Moscow "would be glad if NATO, like the EU, in the future could begin a fully-fledged partnership with Russia".

However, NATO still "does not fulfil the provisions of the NATO- Russia Founding Act in many respects," Avdeyev said.

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#7
Russia recycles 100 tonnes of arms-grade uranium
ITAR-TASS

Moscow, 14 December: Russia used 100 tonnes of arms-grade uranium received from dismantled nuclear warheads, over the past five years. This is tantamount to 3,700 warheads, a high-ranking official of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Vladimir Rybachenkov, said on Thursday [14 December].

According to Rybachenkov, under the 1993 Russian-American intergovernmental agreement, providing for conversion of 500 tonnes of arms-grade uranium from Russian nuclear weapons into low-grade uranium for fuel at American nuclear power stations, Russian specialists developed a unique technology for diluting enriched uranium with natural or low-enriched uranium meeting US standards.

Processing (dilution) of arms-grade uranium is made by factories in Yekaterinburg, Tomsk and Krasnoyarsk. "The United States received 2,800 tonnes of low-grade uranium worth 2bn dollars, which were used by Russia to raise the level of nuclear safety in the nuclear power industry, conversion of military nuclear factories and for the development of fundamental and applied sciences," Rybachenkov noted.

His analytical article on Russia's international cooperation in using nuclear materials was published by the Yadernyy Kontrol journal in its December issue.

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#8
Jamestown Foundation Monitor
December 14, 2000
RUSSIAN GENERAL CHARGED IN MAJOR FUNDS SCANDAL.

The political standing of the Russian Defense Ministry took a fresh hit yesterday when charges involving a gross misuse of funds were formally leveled against the head of the ministry's finance department, Colonel General Georgy Oliynik. Also implicated in the case, which involves the disappearance of some US$450 million in Defense Ministry funds, were three other top Russian generals who had worked with Oliinik. While there was no information immediately available about whether they have been charged, sources in Moscow yesterday said that Oliynik faces up to ten years on a charge of "abuse of power with grave consequences." In a military established believed to be full of corruption, he is one of the highest-ranking generals yet to be indicted on a corruption charge (Reuters, Russian agencies, December 13; Segodnya, December 14).

The case against Oliynik first came to light this past August in what was then described as perhaps the biggest case of graft ever to be found in the Defense Ministry's history. The disappearance of the US$450 million--a considerable sum given a total Russian defense budget of about US$5 billion--was said to have occurred amid a complex series of transactions in 1995-1996 under which the Russian Defense Ministry paid out the US$450 million to acquire unspecified military supplies from a Ukrainian company. Those supplies were apparently never delivered, and the search for missing funding led Russia's military prosecutor's office to launch the investigation which led to Oliynik's indictment yesterday (see the Monitor, August 9).

As is true of so much in Russian politics, however, nothing is quite as simple as it seems. It is worth remembering that in August, when the investigation of Oliynik was made public, the Russian military leadership was in the middle of an unseemly public row which pitted the Defense Ministry's leadership against the Russian General Staff's. Some commentators intimated at the time that the embezzlement investigation might have had as much a political as a legal motive. They suggested that it might be intended to discredit Oliynik's boss, Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, who was then involved in an intense power struggle with General Staff Chief Anatoly Kvashnin.

Not much has changed in the intervening four months, except that the battle between Russia's two top uniformed officers appears to have tilted in Kvashnin's favor. The indictment of Oliynik could therefore be another blow to Sergeev, though perhaps not an immediate one. Russian prosecutors indicated yesterday that it might be some time yet before Oliynik, who has now been under investigation for about nine months, would actually go on trial.

In the meantime, however, the case has some broader political significance. The whiff of corruption serves first to undermine the Defense Ministry's frequent complaints about defense funding shortfalls and to weaken its demands for money. Concurrently, it cannot but harm the Defense Ministry's authority and credibility at a time when the military leadership is launching a major military reduction and restructuring program which will see more than a half million uniformed and civilian Defense Ministry personnel lose their jobs over the next several years. It seems likely, finally, to further fuel press allegations that military leaders are already embezzling millions of dollars from the defense budget and that they are planning to use a recent decision which raises defense funding to grab even more state moneys for themselves. Some of those reports suggest that a billion dollars out the US$8-billion 2001 defense budget could wind up being stolen (Versiya, November 7-13; Vremya MN, October 18).

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#9
Moscow Times
December 15, 2000
End of the Era of Great Expectations
By Peter Ekman

President Vladimir Putin has gathered power over his first year in office and now appears to have relegated his main potential opponents --regional governors and oligarchs--to the sidelines. Even before George W. Bush takes office as U.S. resident, Putin is likely to change his Cabinet. U.S.-Russian relations are set to begin a new phase with new administrations on both sides. Whether this phase lasts four years or 10 years, January 2001 will have been a turning point.

The events leading up to this turning point are not encouraging. Nobody has been happy with U.S.-Russian relations since the August 1998 crash and then the NATO bombing of Serbia. Russian arms sales to Iran are starting again, which will almost certainly trigger some U.S. sanctions against Russia. The current mood seems set by Putin'Ts trip to communist Cuba, and his decision to fly from Cuba to Canada, bypassing the United States.

Almost everybody agrees that U.S. policy toward Russia under the administration of President Bill Clinton was flawed, but surprisingly few people agree on what Clinton should have done. Professor Stephen Cohen, a consistent critic of the tens of billions of dollars of aid that was used to support former President Boris Yeltsin, now proposes Western aid to Russia of $50 billion per year over 10 years. But let's be realistic--ten times the money probably would cause ten times the problems. A half-trillion dollar aid package will not happen not just because it's horrendously expensive but because it probably wouldn't work.

Condoleezza Rice is expected to set a pragmatic or even hawkish tone to the Bush administration's Russia policy if, as expected, she is named national security adviser. She certainly will not implement Cohen's foolish proposal, nor will she repeat the Clinton administration's mistake of over-estimating Russia's will and ability to reform. But the new realism should also take into account that Russia is no longer a security threat to the United States and is working toward a democratic free-market system.

Russia has had its own unrealistic expectations of relations with the United States. Over the last eight years, its policy seemed to alternate between asking for money and advice, accusing the United States of patronizing or trying to take over Russia and requesting debt relief. Realistically, Russia should understand that money always comes with conditions attached, the main one usually being that it should be paid back. If Russia doesn't understand this, its relations with all countries, all foreign investors and its own citizens will never be normal.

Perhaps the most unrealistic desire of some Russians is for a return to super-power status. It's not going to happen because Russia's economy is too weak. No country can be forced into aligning with Russia anymore, and Russia has very little to offer most countries in return for their cooperation. It will take a while for some Russians to get over their desire to return to days of glory and empire, but Putin is enough of a pragmatist that he will not waste resources on this fantasy.

The days of high expectations and idealism in U.S.-Russian relations are long gone. The days of disappointment and disillusion should also soon end if both countries take a realistic view of their own and the other country's interests and abilities.

Peter Ekman is a financial educator based in Moscow.

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#10
Russia: Moscow Still Seen As A Threat To Stability In South Caucasus
By Jean-Christophe Peuch

For years, Russia's policy toward the South Caucasus has been widely regarded as chaotic, undermining Moscow's relations with the region's independent nations. Vladimir Putin's presidency so far has not changed things much. RFE/RL correspondent Jean-Christophe Peuch spoke with Western, Russian, and Caucasus analysts and observers, who analyze the state of Russia-Caucasus relations.

Prague, 13 December 2000 (RFE/RL) -- When Vladimir Putin officially took over from President Boris Yeltsin in March, many observers believed that Russia would at last pursue a more straightforward policy toward the 11 other former Soviet republics that make up the CIS. Special attention was paid to the South Caucasus region, which since 1991 had been a bone of contention among Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Iran.

For years before, Russia's foreign policy in the Caucasus had been characterized by a chaotic decision-making process. The result was the souring of Moscow's relations with two of the region's countries courted by the West.

Azerbaijan's vast hydrocarbon resources have lured some of the world's biggest oil corporations, while neighboring Georgia is expecting substantial profits from Azerbaijani crude oil transit through its Black Sea terminals. But leaders in both nations believe that Russia remains the main obstacle to their countries' prosperity and to political stability in the region.

Silvia Serrano is a researcher at the Paris-based Observatory of Post-Soviet States. She notes that the situation in the region has changed over the past year -- partly because Georgia and Azerbaijan have moved even closer to the West, partly because Russia's foreign policy is more centralized now. But, she says, even though foreign policy is now concentrated in the Kremlin, Russia still lacks long-term objectives in the South Caucasus.

"Putin took office claiming that he would restore the image of [great] Russian power. Of course, to reintegrate the Caucasus into Russia's sphere of influence fits in [with this goal]. But this policy is based on rhetoric rather than on precise objectives. Why does Russia need the Caucasus? At what cost? What is Russia going to do with the Caucasus? I think that these questions have still not been answered [by Russia]."

Serrano also says that, as was the case under Yeltsin, Putin's Russia still sees instability as an asset to its policy in the region.

Both Georgia and Azerbaijan's leaders say that, in the past, Moscow sought to remove them by force from the political scene. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze has been the target of two assassination attempts which, he says, were masterminded by political opponents supported by Moscow. Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev accuses Russia of standing behind a series of failed attempts to overthrow his regime.

Shevardnadze and Aliev both also say that Moscow supports -- politically, financially, and militarily -- separatist movements in Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Russia and Armenia have repeatedly denied that they provide support to any separatist group in the area.

Some Russian as well as Western analysts also believe that Putin is not interested in bringing stability to the region.

Dmitri Furman, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Europe Institute, describes the situation today in the Southern Caucasus as "tense as usual." He says that the Kremlin has several tools at its disposal to exert its influence there.

"We could influence the situation in many ways. [But] another question is: In which direction do we want the situation to develop? What do we want? It is not really clear for us. Yet we have a very large scope of possibilities to achieve concrete goals."

In Furman's view, Russia has several options to further destabilize the region. One would be to renew arms shipments to Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been entangled in an armed dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh for the past 12 years.

Another possibility would be to bring to power former Azerbaijani President Ayaz Mutalibov -- Aliev's archrival, who fled to Russia after he was ousted in 1991. Russia could also encourage separatist tendencies in the 170,000-strong Lezgin ethnic minority that lives in northeastern Azerbaijan, near the Russian border.

Finally, Furman says, the Kremlin could decide to impose visa requirements on Azerbaijanis traveling to Russia.

Last week, Russia imposed a visa regime on most Georgian citizens. Ostensibly, the move was aimed at preventing Chechen rebels Moscow says are hiding in Georgia from crossing the border. But many analysts see the decision as part of a much wider political campaign to force President Shevardnadze into a more compliant policy.

The new visa requirement does not apply to separatists in Georgia's regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia who, according to Tbilisi, receive regular support from Moscow. It will, however, strongly affect the 600,000 Georgian nationals who currently live in Russia. It could also have unpleasant consequences for Shevardnadze by making it more difficult for thousands of Georgians without jobs at home to cross the border into Russia to earn their living.

Also, from Tbilisi's point of view, Russia has been too slow to pull out from two of the four military bases it maintains in Georgia. Withdrawal from the Gudauta and Vaziani military bases has already started and should be completed by the middle of next year. But negotiations over the Akhalkalaki and Batumi bases have not yet begun.

The Russians would like to keep the Gudauta base in Abkhazia and turn it into a recreation center for their soldiers. Moscow only reluctantly agreed to withdraw from the base after Georgia last year said it would no longer share with Russia its military quotas under the 1990 disarmament Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE).

Georgia's attempts to draw closer to the West are also a growing thorn in Russia's side. Shevardnadze, an outspoken critic of the CIS, has said he wants Georgia to start membership talks with NATO soon.

In an interview published last week in the Russian army's "Krasnaya Zvezda" (Red Star) daily, Georgian Ambassador to Russia Zurab Abashidze explained his country's attitude toward Moscow in these terms:

"One of my friends was asked: 'To what extent is Georgia drifting to the West?' To which he answered: 'To exactly the degree that Russia is pushing it in that direction.' I don't know whether this is entirely true, but this is part of the correct way to look at the problem."

Vafa Quluzade, a former Soviet diplomat, has served many years as Aliev's foreign policy advisor in Baku. A strong critic of Russia, he believes that Azerbaijan, too, should be knocking on NATO's door.

"I have repeatedly said that we should deploy NATO military bases in our region or that we should strengthen our military cooperation with NATO. Eduard Shevardnadze has developed the same idea. But nobody listened to us. We are helpless, we are helpless. But the pressure on us is growing. How will this end, only the future will tell. Entering NATO is not an anti-Russian move. It is a path to safety."

All agree that a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is a key to regional stability.

Located inside Azerbaijan, but populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, the enclave declared independence from Baku in 1988. That triggered a six-year war that killed 15,000 people and led to the flight of some 800,000 Azerbaijanis from Armenia, the Karabakh enclave and six neighboring districts in Azerbaijan. Despite a 1994 cease-fire, talks on a final settlement have stalled and one-fifth of Azerbaijan's territory -- Karabakh and the six districts -- remains under Armenian occupation.

The United States, Russia, and the European Union have sought to negotiate a Karabakh peace accord under the aegis of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. But analysts say the situation along the ceasefire line remains quite volatile.

Quluzade, who has himself conducted peace negotiations on behalf of Azerbaijan, fears that Russia could reignite the conflict at any moment.

Russian analyst Furman also does not believe that a Karabakh peace agreement will be signed soon. He says: "Most likely, the current situation -- that is, neither peace nor war -- will remain unchanged."

(Mirza Michaeli of the Azerbaijani Service and Bidzina Ramischwili of the Georgian Service contributed to this article.)

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#11
Castro and Putin denounced US domination during historic summit

HAVANA, Dec 14 (AFP) -
Cuban President Fidel Castro and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin denounced world US domination during a historic summit here Thursday at which they pledged to rebuild their Cold War-era ties.

Castro warmly welcomed a Moscow delegation dominated by top military and trade ministers, as Putin became the first Russian leader to visit this Communist island since the Soviet bloc's demise.

Under a dazzling blue sky and against a backdrop of lush palm trees, the two leaders strolled past Cuban troops on Revolution Square and listened to their national anthems before heading inside the white marble Palace of the Revolution.

"We have many unfinished projects in Cuba worth billions of dollars and we must decide what to do with them," a visibly relaxed Putin said while seated next to Castro, who was clad in his trademark olive-green fatigues.

"Russia intends to bridge the gap between the so-called golden billion and the rest of humanity -- and we will be solving this question by taking our very good ties with Cuba into account."

While Putin earlier Thursday sent a congratulatory letter to US presidential election winner George W. Bush, he made no mention of the vote Thursday, instead ominously warning Washington that its sway on the international arena will, inevitably, wane.

"Similar attempts at world domination were made numerous times throughout the course of history ... and it is well known how they all ended," Putin warned.

Taking up the cue, Castro lashed out at world trade bodies as "the kiss of death," arguing the United States was "forcing neo-liberal globalization" on Cuba.

"Even in the age of colonialism and slavery, the poor were not stolen from by the rich like this," Castro fumed.

The two sides sign five trade and diplomacy agreements while Putin and Castro pledged to support "sovereignty, self-governance, non-intervention, independence and territorial integrity" in their joint declaration.

"This is a very important document," Castro said, adding: "On almost all issues, our positions converge."

Castro also accepted an invitation to pay his first visit to post-Soviet Russia, although a date for the trip has not yet been set.

Moscow further extended Cuba a new 350-million-dollar credit to be used on joint venture projects between the two sides.

Besides the capital, Putin on Thursday is schedlued to visit Lourdes, a town on the outskirts of Havana that houses a cryptic Moscow-funded listening station that monitors submarines and which most analysts agree hones in directly on Washington.

While Moscow has not yet decided if -- despite strong US pressure -- it will keep funding the listening post, Putin's strong rhetoric Thursday suggested that he was keen to press Moscow interests on the island in the coming years.

In another dig at the United States, Putin was accompanied Thursday by Valentin Korabelnikov, who heads the Russian General Staff's military intelligence unit and is responsible for overseeing Lourdes.

On Friday, the Russian president will visit a center for genetic and biotechnological research.

Moscow media last week further said that Atomic Energy Minister Yevgeny Adamov would accompany Putin -- reports that later proved to be untrue.

Adamov's participation would have meant that the two sides intended to sound out the possibility of Russian assistance in finishing a Cuban nuclear reactor at Juragua -- one which the United States staunchly opposes due to security concerns.

Officials in Putin's delegation failed to explain whether Adamov's trip had been planned at all, or if it had been canceled.

Annual Cuban-Russian trade stands at just under one billion dollars, and the Russian delegation were also expected to discuss a proposal that Moscow hopes will finally settle Havana's 11-billion-dollar Russian debt.

Executives at Russia's giant Norilsk Nickel metallurgy plant announced they intended to complete construction of a Cuban smelter in a joint venture with the state-run General Nickel Company.

Norilsk wants the Cuban profits from the venture to go directly to the Russian government to pay off the outstanding debts. It was not immediately clear whether any headway was made on that deal Thursday.

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#12
Moscow Daily Slams 'Exaggerated' Media Reaction to Tu-95MS Arctic Training

Rossiyskaya Gazeta
December 9, 2000
[translation for personal use only]
Report by Boris Talov:
"Difficult on Exercise. Why Are Bears Not Allowed To Do Same As Eagles?"

Russian Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers -- NATO classification Bear -- only had to appear at Arctic airfields again for "sensational" reports to appear in Western and a number of Russian media that Russian pilots have once again begun pointedly rattling their sabers.

People immediately remembered last year's dashes by our long-range aviation's heavy aircraft to Iceland and the Aleutians, which caused considerable worry for NATO strategists. For some reason the Western media doggedly kept quiet about the latest appearance of the carrier battle group led by the Kitty Hawk in the Sea of Japan in direct proximity to our shores and the fact that U.S. F-15's (NATO classification Eagle) constantly fly along Russia's borders until our aerial reconnaissance aircraft appeared above the aircraft carrier on two occasions. Rossiyskaya Gazeta has already provided a detailed report on this operation. But when Russian heavy aircraft flew to their airfields in the Arctic a goodly hullabaloo was immediately kicked up. The Americans can supposedly go where they like but Russian military, while on Russian territory, should coordinate their actions with NATO members.

But the "sensation" proved to have been exaggerated. At the end of November several Tu-95MS combat jets were moved from their basing airfields at Engels and Ukrainka to Vorkuta, Tiksi, and Anadyr in the Arctic. At the same time Il-78 tanker aircraft moved from Ryazan to Rogachevo airfield on Novaya Zemlya. The choice of time was no coincidence: Polar night has started, which, as years of experience shows, is the best time for combat training for the crews of heavy aircraft. They are now mastering at top speed the difficult art of night flights to the polar region.

It has been known for several decades that a pilot who has learned to fly in the Arctic can fly anywhere and anyhow. It is no coincidence that the long-range aviation command has chosen the most unfavorable time of the year for the planned training sessions. Polar night, cyclones, constantly changing weather, 30-40 degree frosts, and northern lights, which disrupt communications -- these are the conditions in which the crews of the heavy aircraft are improving their skills. Those left on the ground are also having a difficult time -- despite the weather and the incessant night they have to prepare the aircraft for flight and ensure the operation of airfields along with providing communications and navigation.

"It is strange to hear some statements that the Russians are once again preparing for their latest dash almost to America itself," Lieutenant General Mikhail Oparin, commander of long-range aviation, said. "Planned training sessions are taking place; aircraft are taking to the skies for between 20 minutes and four hours and are going no further than 200 km from the airfields. The combat jets, never mind the tankers, are not carrying any munitions. At the same time we are rehearsing certain elements for the provision of assistance to the crews of stricken ships and aircraft in the Arctic in full accordance with the Russian-U.S. program."

...This is the first time in the past few years that the crews of our heavy aircraft have been involved in planned winter training in the Arctic, which was once considered normal. It is gratifying that fuel has been found; there are hopes that there will also be money to repair and equip long-range aviation's Arctic bases.

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#13
MSNBC
Rice: A Russophile with Bush's ear
As national security adviser, Rice would push policy of restraint

By Michael Moran

Dec. 14 -- Condoleezza Rice, a Stanford academic and former Reagan administration aide tapped as George W. Bush's national security adviser, will return to Washington with the United States in what she herself has described as "a remarkable position."

WITH THE Cold War more than a decade behind it, America wields unprecedented influence in diplomatic affairs and is unchallenged as the world's greatest military power. In her writings and public statements, Rice makes it clear she believes that U.S. primacy makes it more important than ever that the nation's foreign policy be disciplined, restrained and aware of the nation's limitations.

As with the outgoing secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, who was also in academia before taking office, Rice's positions on foreign policy and security issues are well-known through her books, essays and her active role in the Reagan White House. This means Rice arrives with a virtual blueprint for decision making -- indeed, many regard her essay in the January/February isssue of Foreign Affairs magazine, Promoting the National Interest, to be just that. But as Albright discovered, it also means that carefully formulated policy ideas always face the ultimate test of real world politics.

SETTING PRIORITIES

The Foreign Affairs piece, written during her time as the Bush campaign's top foreign policy adviser, tears into the Clinton administration for what Rice called a failure to set priorities or to distinguish between major and minor issues. She went on to set out her five-point vision of an American foreign policy under a Republican administration: Strengthening the U.S. military, which she says the Clinton administration has driven into a "death spiral."

Extending free trade to promote growth and stability.

Sharing burdens more fairly with overseas allies -- a reference to European NATO and Japan.

Refocusing American efforts on "big power" relationships with China and Russia.

"Dealing decisively" with the North Koreas and Iraqs of the world.

Endeavors that took up a great deal of the Clinton administration's diplomatic energy -- peace negotiations in the Middle East and Northern Ireland, for instance -- fall below the top level of priorities in Rice's view.

These initiatives, as well as the Clinton administration's efforts to improve ties with the United Nations, are the fruits of a "Wilsonian" view of the world, Rice says. She vows to remake U.S. foreign policy as a tool of the "national interest" rather than of "humanitarian interests" or "the international community."

LEFT BIRMINGHAM BEHIND

The 46-year-old Rice was touched by history early in life when one of her childhood friends, Denise McNair, was killed with three other black children in the notorious 1963 Ku Klux Klan firebombing of a church in Birmingham, Ala.

Rice was born on Nov. 14, 1954, in that southern city just as the civil rights movement and the city's white establishment were about to make it a synonym for all that was wrong with postwar America.

Her father, John Wesley, was a university administrator, and her mother, the late Angelena Ray Rice, taught music and science.

Rice has told interviewers that Birmingham could have made me bitter. ... Instead, I think it made me, and I know a lot of my friends, just resilient."

The young Rice raced through school, entering the university of Denver at age 15, graduating at 19 and collecting a masters in international relations from Notre Dame at 20.

Like many people in the younger Bush'[s inner circle, Rice is a former Democrat who began questioning her party affiliation in the 1980s during the Reagan administration. She has told interviewers she voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976 but didn't agree with his foreign policy, particularly his response to the 1980 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which led Carter to boycott the Olympic Games in Moscow that year.

Rice spent much of the 1980s at Stanford, where she became a full professor at the age of 26 in 1981. By 1987, her reputation, youth and her unique position as an African-American woman specializing in Soviet military affairs helped earn her a place in the Reagan White House as an adviser at the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It was her official introduction to Republican politics, yet as late as 1988 she was informally advising for Democratic Sen. and presidential candidate Gary Hart.

READING TEA LEAVES

Rice's reputation as a sharp and eloquent foreign policy analyst has its roots in Kremlinology -- the Cold War scrutiny of the Soviet leadership that for decades was the discipline of choice for ambitious academics. Soon after arriving at the White House in 1987, Rice found herself briefing both Reagan and Vice President Bush on Soviet military thinking. In December 1989, in a meeting on the Mediterranean island of Malta, Rice was introduced to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev by Bush, by then president, as the woman who "tells me everything I know about the Soviet Union."

Gorbachev, described by witnesses as somewhat surprised by Rice's youth and race, is said to have replied: "I hope you know a lot."

As Rice tells it, "There was a time in my life when I knew the general staff of the Soviet Union better than it knew itself."

Ironically, one of Rice's early mentors was Josef Korbel, Albright's father and an instructor in international relations at the University of Denver, where Rice received her undergraduate and doctorate degrees. Indeed, Albright is said to remember Rice as a student visitor to the family home.

Despite her Kremlinologist's background and erudite reputation, Rice also has a knack for making foreign policy accessible to a lay audience. The president-elect himself, who readily admits that foreign affairs is not his forte, has remarked that Rice "can explain to me foreign policy matters in a way I can understand." In an increasingly wired, media-saturated world, that may be a significant strength.

Michael Moran is senior producer, special reports at MSNBC and a columnist on foreign affairs.

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