NB:  After nearly six years of Bush administration efforts to develop a missile defense network, a troubling lack of clarity colors public discourse regarding both the rationale for and the technical progress toward this kind of defense. The reason for the confusion is clear when one examines the historical record, according to CDI Senior Advisor Philip Coyle in a recent analysis for Current History. Quite simply, public statements by Pentagon officials and military contractors are often at variance with the facts. “The Limits and Liabilities of Missile Defense,” first published in the November 2006 issue of Current History, is available at http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=3725&StartRow=1&ListRows=10&
appendURL=&Orderby=D.DateLastUpdated&ProgramID
=6&from_page=index.cfm. 

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1.  Aegis missile defense system fails during test

The test of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system failed abruptly on Dec. 7, 2006, when USS Lake Erie’s incorrectly-set fire control prevented the interceptors from launching.  The test was based from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii, and was scheduled to have a Standard Missile (SM)-3 interceptor hit a ballistic missile target and an SM-2 interceptor hit a surrogate aircraft target.  The USS Hopper and the Royal Netherlands Navy’s TROMP tracked the targets, both of which dropped into the Pacific Ocean without incident.  This was the second test intercept failure for the system out of nine attempts.

(MDA press release, Dec. 7, 2006)

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2.  Boeing likely to win contract for third interceptor site in Europe

While the United States did not announce its choice for hosting a third missile defense interceptor site for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system at the NATO summit last month as rumored, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) did announce that Boeing will likely be tapped to design and develop the site…eventually.  According to Lt. Gen. Richard Lehner, MDA spokesperson, “I don't know when such a decision will be made.  MDA was responsible for conducting siting surveys in Poland and the Czech Republic this past summer, and we completed the required report and sent it to the SecDef's office for review.” This will be a non-competitive contract for Boeing, who is the lead system integrator for the overall GMD system.  Congress also appropriated $30 million in fiscal year 2007 for the beginning of preparation for a third site.  The third site is supposed to be completed and activated by the time MDA is developing the Block 10 iteration of the GMD system.  This may be around 2010, or it may not be – MDA has a tendency to shuffle around development blocks and timeframes at will.

(Defense Daily, Dec. 5, 2006)

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3.  India reports a successful missile interception test

India launched two Prithvi missiles against each other on Nov. 27, 2006, and reports that target missile was successfully intercepted.  During this test, the interceptor missile was launched from Wheeler's Island in the Bay of Bengal, while the target missile was launched from the Integrated Test Range at Chandipore-on-sea in the state of Orissa.  The test was part of the Prithvi Air Defence Exercise (PADE). India hopes to put use the Prithvi missile to deploy a nascent missile defense system in place around its nuclear installations and major urban areas.
(Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Nov. 27, 2006)

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4.  Gates “strongly in favor” of missile defense

When Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld announced his resignation, pundits wondered what would happen to the missile defense system. Rumsfeld had been on a commission that warned of a “missile threat” to the United States: what would happen to the program when he left, especially with noted missile defense skeptic Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., becoming chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee?  As it turns out, the program may not have any changes in its support from the Pentagon.  During questioning by the Senate, Rumsfeld’s nominated replacement, Robert Gates, told senators that he was “strongly in favor” of missile defense.  He also stated that “I know we’ve spent a lot of money on developing missile defense, but I have believed since the Reagan administration that if we can develop that kind of capability, it would be a mistake for us not to, and especially when we now have several dozen countries that either have or are developing ballistic missiles, and you have at least two or three that are developing longer-range missiles.  I think we also have an obligation to our allies in this respect.”  He also cited the 1999 National Missile Defense Act, which Levin pointed out in questioning called for the deployment of an “effective” missile defense system.  To this, Gates responded with the old stand-by for supporters of missile defense – namely, that “if we have something that has some capability, it’s better than having no capability.”
(Federal News Service transcript, Dec. 5, 2006)

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5.  SAIC to work on NATO missile defense test bed

Science Applications International Cooperation (SAIC) signed on Nov. 28, 2006, a six-year, $100 million missile defense contract with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).  SAIC will lead an international consortium to build an Integration Test Bed for NATO’s Active Layered Theater Missile Defense (ALTMD).  The ALTMD program is supposed to shield NATO troops and installments from short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and is planned to incorporate early warning sensors, radar systems and interceptors.  The NATO nations will supply the interceptors; this test bed is to bring them all together in a common architecture.  Marshall Billingslea, NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment said, “NATO urgently needs a NATO theater missile defense system to protect its troops against ballistic missiles.”

(Defense Daily, Nov. 29, 2006)

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6.  Australian defense minister interested in missile defense

Brendan Nelson, Australia’s defense minister, commissioned research to assess the feasibility of adding the Aegis missile defense system to its expected advanced air warfare destroyer (AWD).  The three AWDs planned for service in 2013 will cost between $4.5 billion and $6 billion without the Aegis system addition.  The sea-based missile defense system, which would likely incorporate the Raytheon-made Standard SM-3 to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, is to protect Australian territory and remote interests, especially from North Korea.  “Any Australian who thinks that our country has no interest in anti-ballistic missile defense capability just needs to think back to July, and watching that Taepodong-2 missile on the North Korean launch pad,” Nelson said.

(The Australian, Nov. 22, 2006)

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7.  Pentagon programs at odds with each other, says GAO

Comptroller General David Walker, head of the Government Accountability Office, recently questioned the feasibility of maintaining record-breaking costly programs while facing substantial federal budget deficits.  Namely, the F-22A Raptor, the F-35 Joint Strike Force (JSF), the Army’s Future Combat Systems (FCS) and the missile defense programs appear economically incompatible.  “DOD's plans to transform its military capabilities may not be affordable or sustainable,” Walker said.  Estimates show the FCS to have a $160 billion to $200 billion price tag, missile defense programs cost billions each, and the JSF, at $276 billion, is history’s most expensive defense procurement project. 

(Defense Daily, Nov. 15, 2006)

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