NB#1: In July, Lt. Gen. Trey Obering, head of the Missile Defense Agency, stated that there is a “better-than-zero chance of successfully intercepting, I believe, an inbound warhead.” This contrasts with earlier official statements that predicted an effectiveness rate of over 90 percent. CDI Research Analyst Victoria Samson points out in her analysis, “When do we say when?”, that despite the setbacks during testing, the Pentagon is still requesting funding for more unproven interceptors. She asks, “Why the unbridled enthusiasm when it comes to funding – missile defense overall is the single most expensive weapon system in this year’s budget request – and yet such cautious backpedaling when speaking on record?” For the full text, please go to http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=3110&StartRow=
1&ListRows=10&appendURL=&Orderby=D.DateLastUpdated&ProgramID=
6&from_page=index.cfm.

NB#2:  CDI’s umbrella organization, the World Security Institute, announces the launch of China Security, a policy brief that brings diverse Chinese perspectives to Washington on vital traditional and non-traditional security issues that impact China's strategic development and its relations with the United States.  For the electronic PDF version or a hard copy of China Security, please email info@wsichina.org.  For more information about the World Security Institute China Program, please go to www.wsichina.org.

1. GMD to hold next intercept attempt in late 2006
2. No official cooperation on cruise missile defense
3. THAAD upgrade in the works
4. NFIRE to carry German communications laser
5. India, U.S. to discuss weapons sales
6. Lockheed demonstrates missile defense in Taiwan
7. Lockheed delivers SBIRS-High core component

1. GMD to hold next intercept attempt in late 2006

The Ground-based Midcourse Missile Defense (GMD) system isn’t planning to hold its next intercept flight test until the August–November 2006 timeframe.  It will hold three flight tests before then, but none of them will involve an intercept attempt. The first flight test is scheduled for roughly September through November of this year and will involve an interceptor flying from Kwajalein.  The second flight test, scheduled for February or March 2006, will have an interceptor flying out of Vandenberg AFB, Calif., against a simulated target coming out of Alaska.  The third flight test, to be held in late spring/early summer of 2006, will also have an interceptor flying out of VAFB, but it will use an actual target.  However, an intercept will not be attempted until the fourth flight test in the fall of 2006. Through these flight tests, the Missile Defense Agency hopes “to wring out the systems,” as a program manager put it to the Huntsville (AL) Times (Aug. 23, 2005).

Back to Table of Contents

2. No official cooperation on cruise missile defense

Aerospace Daily reports (Aug. 24, 2005) that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld stated that cruise missile defense is “not something that's on my radar screen at the moment.”  This appears to contradict claims made last week at the annual Army Space and Missile Defense Command conference in Huntsville, Ala., that the Missile Defense Agency could feasibly cooperate with other agencies on cruise missile defense.  This is despite numerous warnings of the “asymmetric threat” supposedly posed by missiles launched off the coast of the United States.

Back to Table of Contents

3.  THAAD upgrade in the works

Throwing its hat into the ring of weapons systems that theoretically could defend the continental United States against an off-shore missile attack is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.  According to Col. Charles Driessnack, THAAD's program manager, upgrades being discussed for the program in the 2010-11 timeframe could potentially allow one single battery (of nine launchers) to defend an entire U.S. coastline.  This improves upon an already optimistic estimation of the nine batteries currently anticipated to be needed for the same task.  Part of the upgrade would be to allow THAAD to incorporate data from non-THAAD radar, which, said Driessnack, would be “essentially like we had another radar miles in front of us or to the side of us, and we can take advantage of that by spreading out.”  Meanwhile, the THAAD interceptor required for its first flight test in six years is still in the process of being put together, but program officials still believe that the test can be held this fall.
(Aerospace Daily, Aug. 18, 2005)

Back to Table of Contents

4.  NFIRE to carry German communications laser

The Missile Defense Agency plans for the controversial Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) program to host a German laser communications payload for its September 2006 launch.  This is in lieu of the kill vehicle originally been planned for the system that sparked quite a lot of protest.  The German payload is thought to be used for intra-satellite communication.  ArmsControlWonk.com details the Space News (Aug. 22, 2005) article on the issue, including viewgraphs in German, at http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/index.php?id=741.

Back to Table of Contents

5. India, U.S. to discuss weapons sales

When Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kohler, a senior Pentagon official, visits India in September, the sale of U.S. weapons will be on the agenda.  India is interested in a number of U.S. systems, including the PAC-3 and Arrow-2 missile defenses, the F-16 and F/A-18 fighters, and the USS Trenton, a decommissioned amphibious transport ship.  The Indian Navy is also interested in acquiring the Aegis combat system, which would improve its ability to monitor Chinese forces in the Indian Ocean and defend against Chinese missiles.  The discussions come in the wake of the July agreement to cooperate on civilian nuclear issues.
(DefenseNews.com, Aug. 23, 2005)

Back to Table of Contents

6.  Lockheed demonstrates missile defense in Taiwan

Lockheed Martin recently demonstrated its ballistic missile defense technologies at the 2005 Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition.  Among other systems, it demonstrated its PAC-3 anti-missile system and PC-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft.  Taiwan is seeking to purchase these weapons to supplement its current PAC-2 missiles.  However, this purchase has been held up in the legislature by the opposition party.
(Spacedaily.com, Aug. 11, 2005)

Back to Table of Contents

7.  Lockheed delivers SBIRS-High core component

Lockheed has recently delivered the core structure for the first satellite in the Space-Based InfraRed System (SBIRS)-High.  The core contains the propulsion systems and the structure for the remainder of the satellite’s systems.  With this delivery, over 95 percent of the flight systems for the first SBIRS satellite have been completed.  SBIRS-High, which will ultimately consist of six satellites in geosynchronous and highly elliptical orbits, is intended to provide the next generation of missile launch detection, but has had numerous technical difficulties and cost over-runs.
(Defense Daily, Aug. 16, 2005)

Back to Table of Contents