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NB #1: The European Conference on Space Debris, took place at European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt , Germany , from April 18-20, 2005 . Much time was spent pushing for a code of conduct including rules that space debris specialists argue "are based on common sense and include measures that should be acceptable to any spacecraft operator." An excellent overview can be found at http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/ESOC/SEMZPBW797E_0.html.
NB #2: In a presentation given to the 3rd Annual Missile Defense Conference of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (http://www.aiaa.org/content.cfm?pageid=230&lumeetingid=
1133&viewcon=other323&id=323), the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance’s Riki Ellison argued that an April 2005 poll its organization bankrolled showed “overwhelming support for missile defense.” However, like with many polls, everything is contingent upon the wording. For example, this group which advocates for missile defense found 60 percent of their poll respondents were against space-based missile defense. Its poll also indicated that nearly twice the amount of people thought diplomacy was a better way than missile defense to deal with the “missile threat.” To see Ellison’s presentation, please go to http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/pdf/MDAA_National_Poll_final_v2.pdf.
NB #3: The Government Accountability Office has several reports of interest to the space security community. The first, “Assessments of Selected Major Weapon Programs, GAO-05-301,” dated March 31, 2005 , discusses the technological and cost maturity and design stability of various acquisition programs. Analyzed are the Advanced Extremely High Frequency Satellites (AEHF), Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV), Navstar Global Positioning System II Modernized Space / OCS, National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS), Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) High, Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS), and Wideband Gapfiller Satellite. The report can be found at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05301.pdf.
The second GAO report, “Defense Acquisitions: Status of Ballistic Missile Defense Program in 2004, GAO-05-243,” dated March 31, 2005 , includes a section on space-based interceptors as part of its analysis on the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) program. The report points out that the Missile Defense Agency “plans to initiate a concept design phase in fiscal year 2008 and conduct space-based intercept tests in the Block 2012/2014 time frame.” The report can be found at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05243.pdf.
NB #4: Now available on CDI’s website is “Engaging the Reluctant Superpower: Practical Measures for Ensuring Space Security.” This address was given in March by Theresa Hitchens , CDI Vice President and Director, CDI Space Security Project, at a UN Institute for Disarmament Research conference on "Safeguarding Space Security: Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space." Hitchens argued that now is the time for launching concerted and constructive dialogue among the space-faring powers to undertake initiatives that promote cooperation in areas where they have mutual interests – as well as for providing constructive criticism of emergent activities that could threaten the security of global space assets. The text of the speech is available at http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?DocumentID=
2946&StartRow=1&ListRows=10&appendURL=&Orderby=
D.DateLastUpdated&ProgramID=68&from_page=index.cfm.
1. XSS-11 launched April 11
2. MDA looking at space-based defense
3. NFIRE may hold flight tests in the next fiscal year 4. EELV to cost $2 billion more than anticipated
5. Russian voices opposition to space weaponization 6. China to export satellite to Nigeria
7. China launches AsiaSat-6
8. China to launch another satellite for Hong Kong firm
9. U.S. Air Force leaders defend satellite programs
1. XSS-11 launched April 11
The Air Force’s Experimental Satellite Series (XSS)-11 was launched on April 11 aboard a Minotaur rocket. This satellite, which weighs 140 kilograms, is supposed to demonstrate autonomous proximity operations and has been promoted by officials as a way of inspecting spacecrafts while they are on orbit. However, some fear that the XSS-11 is a pathfinder technology for an anti-satellite capability, especially given its roots in the old Clementine-2 asteroid intercept program (cancelled during the Clinton administration by officials worried about it violating bans against space-based missile defense). XSS-11 is supposed to operate for over a year, an enhancement over the previous experiment in this series, XSS-10, which was launched in January 2003 and was designed to operate for roughly one day.
(Space News, April 18, 2005 )
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2. MDA looking at space-based defense
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is starting to take “a hard look at developing a space-based layer,” according to MDA head Lt. Gen. Trey Obering at the 3rd annual missile defense conference of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. He announced that MDA will go ahead in 2008 with soliciting contracts for a space-based interceptor system. Obering’s only acknowledgement of the highly charged politics and concerns surrounding reversing a decades-long U.S. policy by weaponizing space was to comment about the “emotionalism" and "religious argument" surrounding the topic. According to Hugh Brady, a Democratic staffer for the House Armed Services Committee, “It’s a redline issue for Democrats.” Nevertheless, MDA budget documents indicate that the agency plans on spending almost $675 million on space-based interceptors through FY 2011.
(Defense Daily, April 13, 2005 ; DefenseNews.com, April 11, 2005 ; Space News, April 18, 2005 )
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3. NFIRE may hold flight tests in the next fiscal year
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA)’s controversial Near Field Infrared Experiment (NFIRE) may hold flight tests in FY 2006, reports Space News ( April 18, 2005 ). MDA budget justification documents show that the agency hopes to hold two flight tests: one where the spacecraft will fly 100-1000 kilometers away from the satellite it is supposed to sense, and one where it is less than 10 kilometers. Observers fear that NFIRE is being used to possibly give the United States a space weapons capability – a concern which appears to be borne out by the budget documents, which explain that NFIRE hopes to “mitigate endgame homing and guidance risk for both terrestrial … and future space-based boost phase interceptors.” MDA has asked for $13.7 million for NFIRE in FY 06, despite the $68 million it has fenced in from the FY 05 budget. It anticipates spending $130 million on NFIRE from FY 05 through FY 07.
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4. EELV to cost $2 billion more than anticipated
The Air Force’s insistence on maintaining two suppliers – Boeing and Lockheed Martin –for its Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program means that the system will cost $6 billion through the end of this decade, instead of $4 billion as projected earlier. The new budget package anticipates each military launch to cost $250 million, which is twice as much as it used to. The Air Force anticipates dividing up 22 launches equally between the two contractors, and hopes to have each company hold four launches a year. No word yet on the final settlement for Boeing’s final penalties for its misuse of Lockheed Martin’s proprietary information while bidding for the initial EELV contract in 1998.
(Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2005 ; Defense News, April 11, 2005 )
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5. Russian voices opposition to space militarization
Sergei Ivanov, Russia ’s defense minister, said Wednesday that Moscow strongly opposes U.S. plans to deploy weapons in space. Ivanov stated Russia is “categorically against the deployment of any weapons in space,” in response to recent statements by U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry (Trey) A. Obering, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, who was quoted as saying at a conference in Washington that emerging threats called for the development of a space-based defense system. In recent years, Russia has pushed for a new United Nations treaty to ban weapons in space, but has supported cooperation with NATO in developing short-range missile defenses.
(Associated Press, April 13, 2005 )
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6. China to export satellite to Nigeria
China will sell a communications satellite to Nigeria , the first overseas buyer of a satellite made by China ’s space sector. The deal, signed Dec. 15, 2004 , between the space administration of Nigeria and the China Great Wall Industrial Corporation represents a major breakthrough for Chinese satellite manufacturers. The satellite, known as Dongfanghong (The East is red) 4, will be put into the orbit by a Long March 3B carrier rocket at the Xichang Space Launch Center in China’s southwest Sichuan Province. The satellite will be monitored and tracked by a ground station in Abuja , the capital of Nigeria , and a ground station in Kashi, in the northwest Xinjiang region of China.
(Xinhua News Agency, April 13, 2005 )
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7. China launches AsiaSat-6
China launched the AsiaSat-6 at the Xichang Satellite Launching Center in the south western province of Sichuan on April 12. The satellite was launched successfully aboard the Long March 3-II which is the most powerful of the Long March rocket family and capable of bringing a maximum load of 5.1 tons into orbit. It was the 84th launch of the Long March series and the 42nd successful operation of Long March rockets since October 1996. The AsiaSat-6 is 4.6 tons in weight and has 38 C channel transmitters and Ku channel transmitters. It entered synchronic orbit at a perigee of 209 kilometers, an apogee of 49,991 kilometers, and an orbital obliquity of 26 degrees.
(Xinhua News Agency, April 13, 2005 )
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8. China to launch another satellite for Hong Kong firm
Encouraged by the successful April 12 launch of AsiaSat-6 satellite for a Hong Kong firm, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has announced it will launch AsiaSat-6B, another communications satellite for the same firm. The satellite will be launched aboard the same Long March 3-II rocket, but AsiaSat-6B will be different from AsiaSat-6, which had a platform and payload manufactured by French satellite manufacturer Alcatel. The satellite platform, developed by the Chinese Academy of Space Technology, is a new generation type of universal platform for the international communications market. Satellites with the platform will have powerful transmitting capacities and long life spans.
(Xinhua News Agency, April 13, 2005 )
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9. U.S. Air Force leaders defend satellite programs
Despite frequent delays and cost overruns, Air Force officials say the Pentagon’s acquisition system for buying high-tech military satellites and launch vehicles is not broken. At the 21st National Space Symposium on April 5, 2005 , Gen. Lance Lord, commander of the Air Force Space Command, said the acquisition process may be slow, but “it’s not broken,” and he admonished those who thought otherwise to just “get over it.” Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas Goslin, deputy commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, endorsed Lord’s assessment, saying the space systems that are being developed by the United States “would have been thought of as miracles 10 years ago.” The Air Force officials’ assessment contrasts with a Jan. 28, 2005, U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report which said that “many of the space programs we have reviewed over the past several decades have incurred unanticipated cost and schedule increases because they began without knowing whether technologies could work as intended, and invariably found themselves addressing technical problems in a more costly environment.” The report also acknowledged the Pentagon had made some progress in conducting space-related science and technology research within a broader strategy.
Despite implementing the recommendations of a May 2003 Defense Science Board report entitled, “Acquisition of National Security Space Programs,” delays and budget increases in space programs continue to be the norm. Lord said at a recent congressional hearing that delays and cost increases in designing and developing space systems are due to their unique characteristics. Lord said that space programs cannot take a ‘fly, fix, fly’ approach, because the capability is placed in orbit, giving the Air Force “just one shot to be successful.” Pete Rustan, director of advanced systems and technologies at the National Reconnaissance Office, offered another reason why satellite costs soar and schedules slip. Rustan blamed large defense contractors for poor management of their subcontractors and said space system users impose “too many requirements for each satellite.”
The report of the Defense Science Board identified five reasons for cost increases and schedule delays:
• Cost has replaced mission success as the primary driver in managing space development programs.
• Unrealistic estimates lead to unrealistic budgets and unexecutable programs.
• Undisciplined definition and uncontrolled growth in system requirements increase cost and schedule delays.
• Government capabilities to lead and manage the space acquisition process have seriously eroded.
• Industry has failed to implement proven practices on some programs.
(Defense News, April 11, 2005)
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