Note: All specifications are from recent Jane's Information Group publications (Strategic Weapon Systems, Fighting Ships, Naval Weapon Systems, and All the World's Aircraft), except "Number Deployed" which is from the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Military Balance 1996-7. Disagreements are footnoted (with hypertext links), as are selected facts in the text. Unlike the confirmed nuclear powers, much of the information about the arsenals and potential delivery vehicles of the de facto nuclear powers is sketchy and speculative.

The entries are listed as follows:

• Land-Based Weapons
• Hatf-1
• Hatf-2
• M-11 (CSS-7)
• Air-Based Weapons
• F-16 Falcon
• Footnotes
• Link to Brief Summary of Pakistan's Possible Nuclear Delivery Vehicles

Hatf-1

• Year Deployed: ~1995
• Dimensions: 6.0 meters length, 0.55 meters diameter
• Weight: 1,500 kilograms
• Propulsion: Solid propellent
• Throw-weight: 500 kilograms
• Range: 80 kilometers
• Guidance: Inertial
• Circular Error Probable: Unknown
• Warhead: Single
• Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
• Locations: Unknown
• Number Deployed: 18 missiles¹
• Primary Contractor: Unknown

The Hatf-1 (which means "deadly" in Pakistani) is a recent short-range ballistic missile produced by Pakistan. The missile's development began in the early 1980s, reportedly with China's aid, though Pakistan maintains it was produced without outside assistance. However, both Hatf missiles resemble the Chinese M-series missiles, so technical aid seems likely. Little is known about the missile or its role. The Pakistanis have denied that they are working on a nuclear warhead to fit to their ballistic missiles.²

It would probably be difficult for Pakistan to manufacture a miniaturized warhead to fit atop the Hatf-1 without nuclear testing and significant development. However, given covert Chinese nuclear aid, the Pakistanis would be able to do it. Certainly the Indians would have to assume the Hatf missiles were nuclear armed, adding yet another source of tension to the subcontinent.

Hatf-2

• Year Deployed: Testing
• Dimensions: 9.75 meters length, 0.82 meters diameter
• Weight: 5,500 kilograms
• Propulsion: Two stage solid propellent
• Throw-weight: 500 kilograms
• Range: 300 kilometers³
• Guidance: Inertial
• Circular Error Probable: Unknown
• Warhead: Single
• Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
• Locations: Unknown
• Number Deployed: 1 missile
• Primary Contractor: Unknown

The Hatf-2 missile was apparently developed in tandem with the Hatf-1 in the early 1980s, possibly with Chinese aid. There was some confusion as to the name of the program, and it may have also been referred to as the Shadoz (King Hawk). The two Hatf missile variants were revealed in 1989. Little information is available on deployment, and the missile is probably still in advanced development. Both stages of the Hatf-2 are believed to have solid propellent. It is reportedly a mobile system, but it is carried on converted World War-II-era antiaircraft gun trailers instead of modern transporter-erector-vehicles. The Hatf-2 is similar to the Chinese M-series missiles, reinforcing the allegations of Chinese technical aid with the Pakistani ballistic missile program.⁴ In particular, the mastery of the more advanced solid-fuel technology -- which the Chinese are now fielding after years of development -- points to covert Chinese assistance.

A follow-on Hatf-3, perhaps with a range of 600 kilometers, may be under development, but this is unconfirmed. This would build on the experience of the SUPARCO multi-stage space launch vehicle, which launched a 150 kilogram payload to an altitude of 480 kilometers in 1989.⁵

M-11 (CSS-7)

• Year Deployed: 1992⁶
• Dimensions: Unknown
• Weight: Unknown
• Propulsion: two stage solid
• Throw-weight: 800 kilograms⁷
• Range: 300 kilometers⁸
• Guidance: inertial, with terminal guidance
• Circular Error Probable: Unknown
• Warhead: Single
• Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
• Locations: Sargodha Air Force Base (reportedly stored in crates)
• Number Deployed: 40 missiles reported⁹
• Primary Contractor: First Academy of the Ministry of Aero-Space Industry (China)

The Chinese M series of tactical short-range ballistic missiles began development in the early 1980s. Three versions are known, the M-9, M-11, and M-18 -- the M designations are used for the export versions. The Pakistanis reportedly have purchased the M-11 (which the Chinese refer to as the Dong Feng-11). The missile was first revealed at a Chinese exhibition in 1988, and was displayed with a transporter erector vehicle similar to that used with the M-9 (DF-15). The M-11 has two solid fueled stages as well as terminal guidance, which provides increased accuracy and a range of 300 kilometers.¹⁰

A series of press leaks of U.S. intelligence community findings lend credence to the claims of the Pakistani M-11 sales. The intelligence community has claimed since 1992 that China sold over 30 missiles to Pakistan, despite denials by both governments. The missiles are allegedly stored in crates at Pakistan's Sargodha Air Force Base. The most recent leak claims "high confidence" that the missiles are in Pakistan, and that Pakistan has finished developing warheads for the missiles. The agencies are almost unanimous in the belief that Pakistan could assemble the missiles within a few days. Chinese experts have reportedly trained the Pakistani unit assigned to fire the missiles.¹¹

Conventional wisdom is that the Pakistanis would not be able to develop a miniaturized nuclear warhead to fit atop a ballistic missile without both flight testing and nuclear weapon testing. Normally, this might be the case. However, if the Chinese have aided the Pakistanis, and there is already reason to believe they have by the advanced training, it would probably be possible to develop such warheads in the absence of testing. If so, this represents a significant new nuclear capability.

Air-Based Weapons

F-16 Falcon

• Year Deployed: 1983
• Dimensions: 15.03 meters length, 5.09 meters height, 9.45 meters wingspan
• Weight: empty - 8,273 kilograms, maximum takeoff - 19,187 kilograms
• Propulsion: F-16A-10 - F100PW200, F-16C-30 - F110GE100A, F-16C-40 - F110GE100
• Range: (hi-lo-lo-hi) 630 kilometers¹²
• Speed: Mach 2+
• Maximum Loadout: 1 fuselage hardpoint, 6 wing hardpoints, two wingtip air-to-air missile mounts -- carries various munitions, including nuclear gravity bombs
• Weapon Load: 5,400 kilograms¹³
• Locations: Squadrons 9, 11 and 4
• Number Deployed: 34 aircraft
• Primary Contractor: Lockheed (General Dynamics)

The F-16 Fighting Falcon has been a very successful American fighter, produced in great numbers (approximately 4,000 aircraft) and widely exported. The design goal was to produce a capable, but inexpensive multi role fighter. The first test flight took place in December 1976. The A and C versions are single seat, while the B and D versions have two seats. The F-16 is a flexible design, capable of high performance in both the air superiority and ground attack roles. The flight controls are digital computer-controlled fly-by-wire, complemented by advanced navigation and avionics systems.¹⁴

Given that the F-16 is undoubtedly the most capable Pakistani attack aircraft, it would likely be tasked with the delivery of nuclear air-to-ground munitions. Indeed, there were reports that F-16s with nuclear weapons were placed on ground alert during the crisis with India several years ago. Pakistan also has other attack aircraft such as the Mirage III and Mirage 5, but given the few bombs in their arsenal, the F-16 would probably be the only aircraft to have a nuclear role.

The U.S. owes Pakistan another 77 more F-16s, but refuses to export them. The U.S. has withheld these aircraft because of Pakistan's nuclear capability; in 1989 President Bush declared that the U.S. could no longer verify that Pakistan did not have nuclear weapons, and was required by law (the so-called Pressler Amendment) to halt all aid to Pakistan. Despite discussions on this matter with Prime Minister Bhutto during her recent visit to the U.S., there are no indications that these aircraft will be exported. Their advanced capability represents too great a threat to stability in the region. Indeed, the Pakistani Defense Attache to Washington recently bragged that with the high technology F-16s and conventional precision guided munitions, Pakistan could cause a nuclear holocaust by attacking India's civilian nuclear reactors.¹⁵ Again, further F-16 exports are unlikely.

FOOTNOTES:

¹ Hatf-1 listed as still in development in Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Ballistic Missile Developments" Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 200.

² "Hatf," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems (Washington: Jane's Information Group, 1990).

³ Hatf-2 range listed as 280 kilometers in in CNS, Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 201.

⁴ "Hatf," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems.

⁵ Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, Missile Threats and Responses (Internet web site - http://www.cdiss.org/btablea2.htm#PSTAN).

⁶ CDISS, Missile Threats and Responses (http://www.cdiss.org/chinab.htm).

⁷ International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 1995-6 (London: Oxford University Press, 1995), p. 281.

⁸ M-11 range listed as 280 kilometers in IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 281.

⁹ As listed in CNS, Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 201, mentioned as 30+ missiles in Rear Admiral Don Harvey, USN (Ret), Intelligence Notes - Part 1 - July 1996

¹⁰ "M Family," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems.

¹¹ Rear Admiral Don Harvey, Intelligence Notes - Part 1 - July 1996.

¹² 930 kilometer range with high mission profile in IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 308.

¹³ IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 308.

¹⁴ Jane's All the World's Aircraft, 1994-5 (Washington: Jane's Information Group, 1994), pp. 565-569.

¹⁵ General K. Sundarji, "Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrent Losing Credibility?" The Indian Express (September 15, 1994).

Compiled by Ted Flaherty
20 December 1996
updated 2 January 1997