Around 1:45 A.M. on Saturday, March 29, a cruise missile thought to be an Iraqi CSSC-3 Seersucker exploded in Kuwait City's harbor, narrowly missing the popular Souk Sharq mall. Kuwait City's air defenses did not give warning that an attack was imminent. The Seersucker cruise missile, also known as a Silkworm, has a range of 51-125 miles and flies at a very low altitude of several hundred feet. Kuwait City is about 50 miles from the Iraqi border. This was the first time since hostilities began that a missile thought to be launched from Iraq had landed and caused damage in Kuwait: prior to Saturday, U.S. CENTCOM officials claimed to have intercepted every missile they deemed to be a threat to coalition forces. There were two injuries but no deaths reported from Saturday's attack. The missile involved was armed with a conventional warhead. Agence France-Presse, March 29, 2003

Iraq launched at least four missiles against U.S. troops in Kuwait Thursday morning. The first volley toward the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force's headquarters (Camp Commando, south of the Iraqi border) were what first reported to be Scuds, but now are thought to have been two Chinese-made CSSC-3 Seersucker cruise missiles. Later on that day, either al-Samoud or Ababil-100 short-range, solid fuel ballistic missiles were also launched at U.S. forces. American missile defense batteries in the area responded with at least five Patriot interceptors, one of which misfired and self-destructed. Early reports claim that possibly two Iraq missiles were intercepted, but it is unclear whether that was the work of the new Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 interceptor, which uses a hit-to-kill warhead, or by an older version of the Patriot interceptor, which uses a blast-fragmentation warhead. Also, while it is certainly hoped that the Patriot is defending our forces as intended, the much-inflated reports of its performance during the first Gulf War must be kept in mind when keeping up with news reports. For more information on how the latest version of the Patriot differs from what was used fairly ineffectively in 1991, please see CDI's fact sheet at http://www.cdi.org/missile-defense/patriot.cfm.

Iraq began destroying six more of its illegal Al Samoud 2 missiles on Monday, according to Agence France-Presse (March 10, 2003). Once it has completed destroying this latest set, 52 of Iraq's estimated 100 Al Samoud 2 missiles will have been eliminated. Also, since the process began on March 1, 16 warheads, five engines, one launcher, and parts of the missiles' guidance and control system have also been destroyed under the watchful eyes of the United Nations. Slate explains (Feb. 28, 2003) the likely process through which the missiles are being destroyed: "[E]xplosive demolition experts are usually called in. Components that can be safely removed, such as gyroscopes, are first stripped away. Then the specialists give the design a thorough once-over, seeking out critical pressure points that will hopefully buckle when blasted. Shaped cutting charges are placed on these points and remotely detonated from a safe distance. The remains are then crushed with a steamroller, to guarantee that they cannot be salvaged from a scrap heap. It's particularly important to purée the most hard-to-find engine parts, such as thrust regulators and gas generators. Smaller components may also be melted in furnaces, just to make sure."

Just in time for the March 1 deadline established by the United Nations, Iraq announced that it tentatively would destroy its cache of 120 Al Samoud 2 surface-to-air missiles. Iraq has agreed "in principle" to rid itself of the missiles, which break UN-mandated range restrictions, but is asking for technical talks now to determine how the missiles will be destroyed. Baghdad is not off the hook: head weapons inspector Hans Blix points out that Iraq at best has shown a "very limited" response to disarmament demands, and U.S. President George W. Bush has called the missiles "just the tip of the iceberg." New York Times, Feb. 28, 2003

Iraq has a least one ballistic missile whose range exceeds limits placed on Iraq's arsenal by the United Nations, said an independent international panel of experts. After studying flight tests of the Al-Samoud 2 missile and specifications of what is thought to be its engine (the SA-2 rocket engine, 380 of which have been illegally imported into Iraq), the panel concluded that the Al-Samoud 2 has a range of 180 km. This exceeds the 150 km limit placed on Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War. The panel has not yet concluded whether Iraq's liquid-fueled Al Fatah missile also exceeds the range limitation.
New York Times, Feb. 13, 2003

On Feb. 26, the Center for Defense Information and the Physicians for Social Responsibility will host a conference on U.S. Nuclear Policy And Counterproliferation. Featuring keynote speaker Sen. Jack Reed and remarks by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (invited), Sen. John Kerry (invited), and Sen. Edward Kennedy, there will be panel discussions on: counterproliferation and preemptive war; nuclear bunker busters, missile defense, and the resumption of nuclear weapons testing; weapons of mass destruction in war; counterproliferation and preemptive war; and U.S. nonproliferation programs. For more information on the cost of the conference and where to send your RSVP, please see the flyer at www.cdi.org/nuclear/conference.html.

The United States will face a number of serious risks as part of any invasion of Iraq, and could be even more serious in some cases than those that existed 12 years ago. The best, most capable, intelligence agencies in the world are all wary of the potential threat posed by Iraqi Scud missiles. Several recent CIA reports and defector statements indicate that Iraq has biological/chemical weapons on hand. Blister agents, mustard gas, VX gas, anthrax, and the nerve agents Sarin and Taburn are all possible payloads for Scud missiles, writes Rear Adm. (Ret.) Stephen H. Baker, USN, CDI Senior Advisor in, "Iraq Scuds: a threat we have to respect." For the complete text, go to: http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/iraqi-scuds.cfm.

In an op-ed titled, "The New National Security Strategy is American Empire," Charles Pena asks, "Why does the United States need a missile defense against rogue states?" Tying it into the new National Security Strategy announced by the Bush administration in September, Pena argues that missile defense is being used as an excuse for the United States to extend its power globally. For the full op-ed, go to http://www.cato.org/dailys/10-20-02.html.

Saddam Hussein still is pursuing a significant missile arsenal and could launch a chemical/biological missile attack 45 minutes after the order to do so, according to a report British Prime Minister Tony Blair presented to an emergency session of Parliament on Sept. 24. The report also averred that, based on intelligence that Iraq has attempted to purchase enriched uranium in Africa, Baghdad may have a nuclear weapon in one to five years. Blair emphasized that he was not trying to make the case for taking military action "come what may. But that the case for Iraqi disarmament is overwhelming." Blair also took care to distinguish the Britain's goals from those of the United States. Britain wants to get rid of Iraq's weapons, not Saddam Hussein. Also, Blair called for focusing, as part of a revamped Middle East peace process, on "a secure Israel and a viable Palestinian state." To read the text of the British intelligence report, go to
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/reports/international/iraqdossier.pdf.
Washington Post, Sept. 25, 2002

Israel has deployed three more Patriot batteries to protect its citizens against Scud attacks if the United States goes to war with Iraq. The missiles fielded are not the same as the ones being developed by the United States for its missile defense program, which are the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 missiles. The Israeli Patriots were created for air defense so they may not work effectively in a missile defense capacity. Israel also has the Arrow Weapon System (AWS), a joint effort between the United States and Israel to provide the latter with a terminal phase missile defense system. The Arrow has never been tested against Scuds, nor has it been used in combat, so its efficacy against Iraq's arsenal is uncertain.
Philadelphia Inquirer, Sept. 12, 2002

Intelligence analysts think that Iraq has two short-range ballistic missiles and possibly a few medium-range ballistic missiles in its arsenal, but they are unsure of the extent of both its missile and chemical/biological programs. The liquid-fueled Al-Samoud and solid-fueled Ababil are technically allowed since they fall within the UN-established limit of ranging 150 kilometers (around 100 miles). However, some analysts believe Iraq is researching how to secretly modify its missiles so they have a longer range. They also think that parts from a few medium-range Scud B missiles may have been hidden from UN inspectors, potentially giving Iraq a longer reach. Iraq also once had the ability to place chemical and biological agents in its missile warheads.
Washington Post, Sept. 5, 2002