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Likely Nuclear Arsenals Under the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
(Moscow Treaty)
United States
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2002
|
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Strategic Forces
|
|
Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
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Launchers
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Deployed Warheads*
|
Responsive Warheads
|
Spare Warheads
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Inactive Warheads
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Notes
|
|
ICBMS
|
550
|
1700
|
0
|
85
|
300
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Minuteman III and Peacekeeper Missiles with W62, W78
and W87 warheads
|
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SLBMs
|
432
|
3120
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0
|
160
|
336
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Based on 18 Ohio-class submarines. 6-8 W76 or W88 warheads
per missile.
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Bombers
|
118
|
1660
|
0
|
85
|
1200
|
Bombers include 21 B2A Spirit, 97 B52 H Stratofortress,
(41 in overhaul). 16 missiles per bomber
|
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2002 Totals
|
|
6480
|
0
|
330
|
1836
|
8646 total strategic warheads
|
|
2012
|
|
Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
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Launchers
|
Deployed Warheads*
|
Responsive Warheads
|
Spare Warheads
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Inactive Warheads
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Notes
|
|
ICBMS
|
500
|
500
|
300
|
35
|
600
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All 50 Peacekeeper missiles retired
|
|
SLBMS
|
336
|
1440
|
400
|
60
|
1460
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Missiles based 16 Ohio-class submarines with 5 warheads
per missile. At all times 2 subs will be in “overhaul” - their warheads
will not count toward treaty ceiling. Two additional submarines will
have been converted to a conventional role.
|
|
Bombers
|
97
|
269
|
650
|
25
|
2000
|
Bombers include 21 B2A Spirit, 97 B52 H Stratofortress,
(including 41 in overhaul). 16 missiles per bomber.
|
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2012 Totals
|
|
2440
|
1350
|
120
|
4060
|
Under the Treaty, 240 of 2440 deployed warheads do
not count because they are in overhaul. Total strategic warheads in
2012 when treaty expires: 7970
|
|
Non-Strategic (Tactical) Forces 2002-2012
|
|
800
|
320
|
40
|
850
|
Not affected by Moscow Treaty. Includes Air Force tactical
bombs and sea-launched cruise missiles carried on attack submarines.
|
*Includes Warheads in Overhaul.
U.S. tables based on Estimates from the Natural Resources
Defense Council.
Russia
|
2002
|
|
Strategic Forces
|
|
Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
|
Launchers
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Warheads
|
Notes
|
|
ICBMS
|
738
|
3324
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Most Russian missile classes are likely to go out of
service in the next 10 years, due to production facilities being located
outside of Russia and service livers expiring.
|
|
SLBMs
|
60
|
600
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62 SSBNs in service in 1990 have declined to 17 due
to financial shortfalls. All SLBMs are now based on seven Delta III
class submarines, seven Delta IV class submarines and three Typhoons.
|
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Total Bombers
|
78
|
898
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29 Bear H6s, 34 Bear H16s and 15 Blackjack fighters
carry Russia’s air-based strategic nuclear weapons.
|
|
2002 Totals
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|
~5600
|
|
|
2012*
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|
Strategic Forces
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|
Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
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Launchers**
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Warheads**
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Notes
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ICBMs
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100-200
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200-400
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Totals depend on which missiles Russia chooses to extend
the service life of, and, and whether remaining missiles are MIRVed.
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SLBMs
|
112
|
600
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Totals assume Typhoon and Delta III submarines classes
are scrapped and only Delta IV SSBN and its missiles, the SS-N-23, are
retained.
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Bombers
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30-50
|
240
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Operational levels of aircrafts will continue to drop
due to economic shortfalls.
|
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2012 Totals
|
|
1040-1240
|
|
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Non-strategic (tactical) forces
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~2750
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Includes anti-ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles,
air-to-surface missiles, sea-launched cruise missiles, gravity bombs,
and anti-submarine weapons. Totals of Russian tactical nuclear weapons
are highly uncertain.
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Hedge Reserve Stockpile
|
?
|
?
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It is unclear how many of the decommissioned Russian
delivery systems and warheads will be preserved in a hedge or reserve
status. Under the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, Russia has
the right to store the weapons it does not deploy, but such action may
not be fiscally feasible.
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*All numbers in this table are highly speculative given the
uncertain future of Russia’s nuclear arsenals. A number of variables - the
potential for service life extension, the availability of resources, the
prioritization of those resources, the potential to MIRV weapons - make
predicting the shape of Russia’s nuclear arsenal in 2012 highly speculative.
Unlike START II, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty allows MIRVing of
weapons. It remains to be seen which Russian missiles will be MIRVed.
** Most downloaded weapons are likely to be retained, at
least temporarily, in storage.
Russian tables based on estimates and research from the
Federation of American Scientists, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and National Intelligence Estimates.
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