Land-Based Strategic Weapons

  Jericho1 (Luz YA-1) SRBM
  Jericho-2 (Luz YA-3) MRBM

Air-Based Strategic Weapons

  F-4E-2000 Phantom
  F-16 Falcon

Other Weapons

Land-Based Strategic Weapons

Jericho-1 (Luz YA-1) SRBM

   Year Deployed: 1973
   Dimensions: 10.0 meters length
   Weight: 4,500 kilograms
   Propulsion: Single-stage
   Throw-weight: 500 kilograms
   Range: 500 kilometers
   Guidance: Inertial
   Circular Error Probable: Unknown
   Warhead: Single
   Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: 50-100 missiles
   Primary Contractor: IAI

The Jericho I short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) was developed in the 1960s, reportedly with French assistance. Such aid was concurrent with French nuclear aid, in the form of the Dimona nuclear reactor. This reactor produced the plutonium that was used in Israel's nuclear arsenal.

The Jericho I was based on the French Dassault MD-600 design, and has the Israeli name of "Luz." The missile is reported as having a 500 kilogram high-explosive warhead, but could be fitted with nuclear warheads as well. It is unknown whether they are allocated to this role. The Jericho is carried on a wheeled transporter erector vehicle (TEL) or on railroad car launchers. It is believed that approximately a total of 100 Jericho I and II missiles in the arsenal. Israel is reportedly trying to obtain technology to improve the accuracy of the Jericho, as it currently lacks the components necessary for precision gyroscopes and sensors.

It should be noted that none of the warheads for Israel's purported nuclear weapons delivery systems may actually be deployed. In fact, many analysts believe that Israel maintains a nuclear arsenal that is stored but not armed, requiring some preparation before use. This allows for the oft-repeated mantra that "Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the region." The semantic rationalization is that the bomb components are not actually assembled "weapons." There is also the fact that the U.S. Navy deployed nuclear weapons in the region for years with the Sixth Fleet. Despite the Israeli arsenal's likely unassembled status, as Professor Martin van Creveld of Hebrew University stated, "An A-bomb that is, or is believed to be 'only a screw-driver away,' is nearly as effective a deterrent as one openly brandished."

Jericho-2 (Luz YA-3) MRBM

   Year Deployed: 1990
   Dimensions: 12.0 meters length, 1.2 meters width
   Weight: 6,500 kilograms
   Propulsion: Two stage solid propellant
   Throw-weight: 1,000 kilograms
   Range: 1,500kilometers
   Guidance: Inertial
   Circular Error Probable: Unknown
   Warhead: Single
   Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: ~50 missiles
   Primary Contractor: Indian Defense Research and Development Laboratory

The Jericho II improved greatly upon the performance of its predecessor. It was developed in the mid-1970s to early 1980s, with the first test flight in 1986. Unlike the single-stage Jericho I, the Jericho II has two stages, which allow for a greatly increased range of 1,500 kilometers as compared to the 500 kilometer range of the earlier model. Like its predecessor, the Jericho II is road mobile. In addition to inertial guidance, it may have some sort of terminal guidance as well to increase accuracy -- details are unknown. There also appears to be a South African connection. Unconfirmed reports suggest that there was significant South African funding for the Jericho II, and that the South Africans may even possess modified Jericho IIs under the designation "Arniston."

The payload is reportedly double that of the Jericho I, at 1,000 kilograms, more than enough to carry a nuclear weapon. It is not conclusively known whether the Israelis have allocated nuclear weapons to the Jericho II, but it is extremely likely, given the great range, payload, and capability of the system.

The Jericho II brings a dramatic increase in prompt delivery capability for the Israelis with its long range. It is capable of hitting the entire panoply of targets in the Middle East (particularly Iran), as well as southwestern Russia. There is an even greater incipient capability in Israel's space launch program. The Jericho II and the Shavit (Comet) space launch rocket are very similar. The Shavit launched the first Israeli satellite (Ofeq-1) into orbit in September 1988. The Shavit could conceivably be modified and used to deliver a nuclear weapon. Its mere existence means Israel is be capable of building an ICBM, though there appears to be no strategic imperative or political desire to do so.

Air-Based Strategic Weapons

F-4E-2000 Phantom

   Year Deployed: Unknown
   Dimensions: 17.76 meters length, 4.69 meters height, 11,70 meters wingspan
   Weight: maximum takeoff - 24,765 kilograms
   Propulsion: Two J79-GE-8 turbojets
   Range: 1,600 kilometers
   Speed: Mach 2+
   Maximum Loadout: Four ground-attack munition hardpoints
   Weapon Load: 7,200 kilograms
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: 50 aircraft, plus 20 older F-4E models
   Primary Contractor: McDonnell Douglas

The Phantom (officially the Phantom II) was originally designed as a two-seat, two-engine, long-range all-weather attack fighter for American carriers. Initial development began in 1954, although its role was soon changed to that of a missile fighter. The Phantom has had a long and distinguished history since the first F-4A flew in 1958, going through various upgrades and variations and serving with several U.S. allies.

The Israelis have the F-4E version, which was designed as a multi-role fighter capable of air superiority, close air support, and interdiction missions. This version also has an additional fuselage fuel cell for increased range, as well as the leading edge slats developed for the F-4F, which give the aircraft more maneuverability. More recently they have entered an upgrade for 50 F-4Es - and possibly the entire fleet -- known as Phantom 2000, which will extend the life of the aircraft beyond the year 2000. The first aircraft completed modifications in 1989, which include reinforced skin and fuel cells, complete rewiring, and improved avionics, electronic countermeasures, and cockpit enhancements.

Though aging, the Phantoms remain capable aircraft. There is reason to believe they were once allocated to the nuclear role, and may still be. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Israeli forces were being driven back across the Sinai by the Egyptians, and were in jeopardy of losing the Golan to the Syrians, Israel's nuclear forces were reportedly put on heightened alert. This allegedly included placing a squadron of F-4Es on continuous alert, manned by Israel's most elite pilots, ready to strike with the country's nascent nuclear arsenal. Another report in Time magazine credits Prime Minister Golda Meir with ordering the nuclear weapons armed in preparation for a strike, though "Before any triggers were set, however, the battle on both fronts turned in Israel's favor. The 13 bombs were sent [back] to their desert arsenals." These actions were partially taken to convince the United States of the seriousness of the situation, and to intervene, but it does seem that the Middle East came quite close to nuclear conflict in 1973.

Today, despite the Phantom 2000 modernization program, these aircraft are aging. The nuclear bomb delivery role is more likely allocated to the more modern F-16s. However, given the F-4E's past nuclear mission, and the possibility of a continued role, they are listed here.

F-16 Falcon

   Year Deployed: 1980
   Dimensions: 15.03 meters length, 5.09 meters height, 9.45 meters wingspan
   Weight: empty - 8,273 kilograms, maximum takeoff - 19,187 kilograms
   Propulsion: F-16A-10 - F100PW200, F-16C-30 - F110GE100A, F-16C-40 - F110GE100
   Range: (hi-lo-lo-hi) 630 kilometers
   Speed: Mach 2+
   Maximum Loadout: 1 fuselage hardpoint, 6 wing hardpoints, two wingtip air-to-air missile mounts — carries various munitions, including nuclear gravity bombs
   Weapon Load: 5,400 kilograms
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: 205 F-16 aircraft
   Primary Contractor: Lockheed (General Dynamics)

The F-16 Fighting Falcon has been a very successful American fighter, produced in great numbers (approximately 4,000 aircraft) and widely exported. The design goal was to produce a capable but inexpensive multi-role fighter. The A and C versions are single seat, while the B and D versions have two seats. The F-16 is a capable and flexible design, capable of high performance in both the air superiority and ground attack roles, depending on munitions. The flight controls are digital computer-controlled fly-by-wire, complemented by advanced navigation and avionics systems.

Israeli F-16s have been extensively modified with Israeli equipment, as well as optional U.S. equipment, particularly enhanced jamming and electronic countermeasures equipment. Israel began accepting deliveries of the A-model starting in 1980, with deliveries of the block 40 C-model starting in 1992. Israel also received an additional 50 older F-16s A/Bs in 1994 from U.S. surpluses. Israel has been the biggest export recipient of the F-16. Given that the Falcon is probably the most capable Israeli attack aircraft, it would likely be tasked with the delivery of nuclear munitions.

Some experts allege that Israel's nuclear artillery infrastructure is particularly large. During the Yom Kippur War there were allegedly three nuclear capable artillery battalions, containing self-propelled 175 mm guns. Later 203 mm nuclear artillery shells were reportedly developed.

There were also allegations that a flash in the southern Indian Ocean on Sept. 22, 1979, detected by a VELA satellite, was a joint Israeli/South African nuclear test. The test may have involved a nuclear artillery shell detonated on a barge. Nearby South African and Israeli naval forces lend credence to the allegations, as does the fact that South Africa reportedly completed its first nuclear device a short time afterwards. The covert test allegations are still officially denied today.

In 2000, there were reports that Israel had completed its nuclear triad by gaining the ability to arm its Dolphin class submarines with nuclear-armed Popeye cruise missiles. These reports are unconfirmed and refuted in several quarters.

It was the revelations of nuclear weapons worker Mordechai Vanunu that revealed Israeli's nuclear secrets. He published pictures and detailed descriptions of the secret Dimona reactor and weapon facility in the Oct. 6, 1986, London Sunday Times. He estimated Israel's arsenal at 200 weapons, including sophisticated types such as enhanced-radiation (neutron) and even hydrogen bombs. It appears Israel bypassed the first generation of fission weapons all together and went to boosted fission weapons, whereby deuterium and tritium are inserted into the plutonium warhead at the moment of explosion, flooding it with neutrons and "jump starting" the reaction.

There was a real shift in Israel's nuclear posture during the Gulf War, when oblique references to a nuclear attack became common in response to Saddam Hussein's threats to use chemical weapons against Israel. Indeed, American spy satellites reportedly photographed Israel flexing its nuclear muscles in a way it had not since the Yom Kippur War of 1973 (see the Phantom entry for description of that incident.) Israel had gone on full nuclear alert and deployed nuclear launchers facing Iraq — a move probably as much to impress watching Americans about the seriousness of the situation as to threaten Iraq.

In 2002, Israel considers Iran and Iraq to be its primary threats. Some speculate that an American attack on Iraq could provoke Hussein to launch a WMD attack on Israel, although his capability to do so is questioned. Such an attack could provoke a nuclear response. Additionally, Iran's progress towards nuclear capability alarms many Israelis and there are rumblings of a conventional preemptive strike, similar to the strike on Iraq in 1981.

Sources

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, "Nuclear Notebook"

Central Intelligence Agency, "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions" (Feb. 1, 2002)

Cordesman, Anthony, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis" (December 2001)

Federation of American Scientists

Jane's All the World's Aircraft, Ed. Paul Jackson, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Fighting Ships, Ed. Commondore Stephen Saunders, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Naval Weapon Systems, Ed. E.R. Hooton , Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, Ed. Duncan Lennox, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

The Military Balance, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, London England, Oxford University Press, 1997-2002

Compiled by Ted Flaherty,
December 1996
Updated by Ben Friedman, CDI Research Assistant
May 16, 2002