Land-Based Strategic Weapons

  Prithvi I
  Agni

Air-Based Strategic Weapons

  Jaguar (Shamsher)
  MiG-27 Flogger M (Bahadur)

Sea-Based Weapons

Land-Based Strategic Weapons

Prithvi I

   Year Deployed: 1995
   Dimensions: 9.0 meters length, 1.1 meters diameter
   Weight: 4,000 kilograms
   Propulsion: Single stage liquid propellant
   Throw-weight: 500-1000 kilograms
   Range: 150-350 kilometers
   Guidance: Inertial
   Circular Error Probable: 250 meters
   Warhead: Single

Design of the Prithvi short-range missile began in 1983, and it was first test fired in February 1988. Since then, there have been 15 additional tests. India may have had outside assistance in building the missile, as there are unconfirmed reports of a European company aiding development. The propulsion system is based on the Soviet SA-2 surface-to-air missile. The missile has a distinctive appearance, with four delta-shaped wings midway down the fuselage. It is based near the border with Pakistan, on eight-wheeled Kolos Tetra trucks, which can raise the missile for launch.

The Prithvi (meaning "Earth") uses a volatile, liquid-fuel launch mode — it must be fueled immediately prior to launch. While the CEP (circular error probable) is 250 meters, there have been some reports that the accuracy could be enhanced to 10 meters using maneuvering warheads. The fact that Indian scientists are using commercial U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite navigation data in their missile guidance lends credence to these claims, although whether India could actually accomplish such precision is uncertain.

There are two versions of the Prithvi, the Prithvi I (the SS-150) and the Prithvi II, (the SS-350), with ranges of 150-250 and 300 kilometers respectively. Some reports indicate that an intermediate version of these two Prithvis, the SS-250 exists. Given the short range and planned deployment area, the intended target of these missiles is clearly Pakistan. India's nuclear tests in 1998 reaffirmed its nuclear capacity and India has likely gained the ability to arm the Prithvi I — still its only missile capable of a nuclear role — with nuclear warheads if that capability did not exist prior to the tests. The Prithvi II was test fired March 31, 2001. Like Pakistan, India is believed to keep its warheads separate from the delivery vehicles, although a new crisis in relations could alter that stance.

Agni

   Year Deployed: Testing
   Dimensions: 18.4 meters length, 1.3 meters diameter
   Weight: 14,000 kilograms
   Propulsion: 1st stage: solid propellant; 2nd stage: liquid propellant
   Throw-weight: 1,000 kilograms
   Range: 2,500 kilometers
   Guidance: Inertial with terminal guidance
   Circular Error Probable: Unknown
   Warhead: Single
   Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
   Locations: Unknown
   Number Deployed: Unknown
   Primary Contractor: Indian Defense Research and Development Laboratory

The Agni (meaning "Fire") is a more ambitious project than the Prithvi. It is a full-fledged intermediate-range missile, development of which began in 1979. It has a curious mixture of propellants in its two stages, with the first stage, copied from the SLV-3 space launch vehicle, using solid propellant. The second stage is liquid-fueled, using a shortened Prithvi motor system. The inertial guidance is probably an upgraded form of that used on the Prithvi.

The Indians have stated the Agni will not be equipped with a nuclear warhead. However, given China's lack of an anti-ballistic missile system and the Agni's ability to hit Beijing, arming it with a nuclear warhead would be a tempting deterrent to India's rival to the north and would allow the Indians to nearly match the range of latest Pakistani Ghauri missile. According to the CIA, India is currently working on a lightweight nuclear warhead for the Agni — the technological problems are difficult, but not insurmountable. If the Agni does not have a nuclear warhead, it might be fitted with a fuel-air explosive (FAE), which — relative to conventional weapons — can do great damage. A form of terminal guidance system could be incorporated if high explosives were used. Agnis might also be fitted with chemical weapons.

The first Agni was tested in 1989, generating sufficient pressure from the West to preclude deployment of the system. In 1994, perhaps partially due to U.S. pressure, the Indians claimed the Agni was only a technology demonstrator program rather than a full-fledged weapon, and that they would not be deployed. Sources within the Indian Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) claim existing test missiles could be operational in three months if the decision were made to do so.

India has tested the Agni at a range of 1,500 kilometers and a newer Agni II to a range of 2,000 kilometers. The Agni II was tested again in January 2001, to a range of 2,200 kilometers. It is not clear whether the Agni I is deployed, but Indian officials have announced that the Agni II will be deployed in 2002. A mobile launch platform is being developed. Additionally, the Indians may have an Agni III, with a range intended to reach 3,500, under development.

A short-range version of Agni was tested in January 2002. With a payload of 1,000 kilograms and a range of 700 kilometers, the missile was likely intended to bridge a gap between the shorter-ranged Prithvi and longer-ranged Agni missiles.

Additionally, as part of its space program, India has had the ability to launch vehicles into orbit since 1994, when it conducted its first successful space flight. Weaponzing this program could yield India an ICBM in a matter of years. Some analysts claim India has such a plan in place, working to develop an ICBM to be called the Surya. aircraft from the French) could be equipped to carry nuclear weapons. It is believed that they are currently configured for other roles.

Air-Based Strategic Weapons

Jaguar (Shamsher)

   Year Deployed: 1995
   Dimensions: 16.83 meters length, 4.89 meters height, 8.69 meters wingspan
   Weight: empty - 7,000 kilograms, maximum takeoff - 16,700 kilograms
   Propulsion: Two Rolls Royce Turbomeca Adour Mk 811 turbofans
   Range: 1600 kilometers
   Speed: Mach 1.5
   Maximum Loadout: 4,750 kilograms
   Weapon Load: Various conventional air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions, probably some nuclear gravity bombs
   Locations: Hindan, Ambala; Squadron Nos. 5, 14, 16, 27 and No. 6 (antishipping)
   Number Deployed: 88 aircraft
   Primary Contractor: Hal, Bangalore Complex

The Jaguar, referred to by the Indians as the Shamsher (Assault Sword), is a single-seat attack aircraft. The original batch was purchased from the British, the aircraft were subsequently assembled in India, and finally were built in India under license. The aircraft has an integrated attack/navigation system called DARIN (display attack and ranging inertial navigation) as well as other comparatively advanced avionic and electronic countermeasures gear. India boasts four squadrons totalling 80 aircraft.

The Jaguar is one of India's most capable ground-attack aircraft. As such, it is one of the primary candidates to carry India's limited number of nuclear weapons. Indeed it served the British in this capacity. Its nuclear weapons are likely gravity bombs.

MiG-27 Flogger M (Bahadur)

   Year Deployed: 1986
   Dimensions: 17.07 meters length, 5.00 meters height
   Weight: maximum takeoff - 18,000 kilograms
   Propulsion: One Soyuz (Turmansky) R-29B-300 turbojet
   Range: (low altitude) 390 kilometers
   Speed: Mach 1.7
   Yield: Unknown, could carry nuclear weapon
   Maximum Loadout: Two 500 kilogram bombs, various other munitions (Russian version can carry tactical nuclear weapons)
   Weapon Load: 4,000 kilograms
   Locations: Squadron Nos. 2, 9, 18, 22, 31, and 222
   Number Deployed: 148
   Primary Contractor: Hal, Kanpur Division

The MiG-27 Flogger M (corresponding to the Russian MiG-27 Flogger-J) is a single-seat attack fighter known by the Indians as the Bahandur (Valiant). The MiG-27M has variable swept wings, and an integrated attack/navigation system. It was designed by the Soviet Union and began entering service with the U.S.S.R. in the late 1970s. Its design was based on the MiG-23B Flogger, but had enhanced engines and attack/navigation system. India was licensed by the Soviets to produce the aircraft in 1984, and it entered service in 1986. A mid-life avionics upgrade for the MiG-27Ms is being considered.

Since the Russian version can carry tactical nuclear weapons, the possibility that the Indian MiG-27M could potentially be tasked with carrying Indian gravity bombs must be considered. India currently has nine squadrons; it is not clear which house the nuclear capable aircraft, if any. The western Jaguar, with its longer range and presumably more sophisticated electronics, would seem to be the more likely candidate for this role.

Aircraft such as the Su-30k, the Mirage 2000H, or a Mirage 2000D (India may purchase this aircraft from the French) could be equipped to carry nuclear weapons. It is believed that they are currently configured for other roles.

In addition to its land- and air-based nuclear delivery vehicles, India is developing two naval systems to complete its nuclear triad. In 2010 at the earliest, India hopes to deploy a submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) called the Sagarika. A sea-launched missile, the Dhanush, a derivative of the Prithvi, was tested in 2000. The test, however, launched off a navy helicopter deck, was not successful. While India has not announced any intentions to make either missile nuclear capable, it is very likely to seek such a capability, as a submarine-based nuclear weapon is quite hard to target and therefore would greatly strengthen New Dehli's deterrent.

India has struggled to develop a nuclear-powered submarine since 1985. The Indians gained technical expertise by leasing and operating Russian cruise-missile submarines from 1988 to 1991. India began construction of such a submarine in 1997, but the launch date, initially set for 2007, has likely been delayed. Given such setbacks, India is negotiating to lease one or more Russian nuclear submarine.

Sources

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, "Nuclear Notebook"

Central Intelligence Agency, "Unclassified Report to Congress on the Acquisition of Technology Relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions" (Feb. 1, 2002)

Cordesman, Anthony, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis" (December 2001)

Federation of American Scientists

Jane's All the World's Aircraft, Ed. Paul Jackson, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Fighting Ships, Ed. Commondore Stephen Saunders, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Naval Weapon Systems, Ed. E.R. Hooton , Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems, Ed. Duncan Lennox, Alexandria, Va. Jane's Information Group, 1997-2002

The Military Balance, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, London England, Oxford University Press, 1997-2002

Compiled by Ted Flaherty,
December 1996
Updated by Ben Friedman, CDI Research Assistant
May 16, 2002