The U.S. military is now in the process of upgrading its fleet of tactical aircraft -- aircraft designed for direct combat in air-to-air or air-to-surface (ground or sea) battles. Three aircraft are now in various stages of development or production, the F/A-18E/F, the F-22, and the Joint Strike Fighter. In all, the military services plan to purchase nearly 4,000 aircraft at an estimated total cost of $350 Billion.
 

The F-22, known as the "Raptor," is an air-superiority fighter intended to replace a portion of the Air Force's fleet of F-15s. The aircraft will utilize "stealth" technologies, and be able to cruise at supersonic speed without afterburners, thus saving fuel. Lockheed-Martin is the prime contractor, while Boeing (airframes) and Pratt & Whitney (engines) are major subcontractors. The F-22 has become the centerpiece of the debate over the U.S. aircraft modernization program due to a number of factors, including the cost of the program and the lack of a threat to U.S. air superiority.
 

PROGRAM COSTS -- Originally the Air Force had planned to buy 438 F-22s at a total cost of $71 Billion, for an average cost of $159 million per plane, making it the most expensive fighter aircraft in history. However, the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), released in May 1997, recommended reducing the total number of aircraft purchased to 339.
 

In an interview with "Defense Daily" (July 8, 1997), Air Force acquisition chief Arthur Money indicated that plans to cut the number of F-22s purchased by 99 would reduce costs of the production phase, originally estimated at $48 Billion, by $5 Billion. Serious concerns have been raised, however, about the ability of the Air Force and the plane's builders, Lockheed-Martin and Boeing, to control production costs.
 

The research and development (R&D) portion of the program is already more than $2 Billion above original estimates. In addition, a report released earlier this year by the Pentagon's Cost Analysis Improvement Group, a panel specially convened to look into the costs of the F-22, indicated that production costs of the 438 aircraft could exceed estimates by as much as $16 Billion.
 

In a 1997 study the Congressional Budget Office concluded that the three tactical aircraft programs have already exceeded the projected $350 Billion pricetag by $7 Billion. Further, CBO said that buying all three aircraft will cost between $14 Billion and $18 Billion each year from 2008 to 2014. This would consume up to 46 percent of the Pentagon's current annual budget for all weapons purchases, including ships, tanks, rifles, etc. Tactical aircraft purchases now total only about 6 percent of the procurement budget.

Another CBO study concluded that during the development of these new aircraft, aircraft in the current fleet would have to be kept in service well beyond the twenty years that the Pentagon had planned to operate them. In addition, the General Accounting Office stated in a 1993 study that F-22 production could be delayed until 2010 without undue risk to U.S. air superiority. Thus, the Pentagon could modernize its fleet by purchasing new models of existing, proven aircraft, at a lower cost, while maintaining U.S. air dominance.
 

PROGRAM STATUS -- The first F-22 made its maiden flight on September 7, 1997. The flight had been originally scheduled for late May, but was delayed for several months due to a series of problems, including leaks in a fuel tank, a faulty fuel probe, and a malfunctioning auxiliary power unit. And while a loss of telemetry during the second flight lead program officials to consider additional flights during the first batch of tests, flight testing was eventually halted after only two of three scheduled flights. Cost and scheduling problems led program officials to cut short the first series of tests even though the completed tests had identified a problem with the aircraft's hydraulic system.
 

Flight testing of the first aircraft is expected to resume early next year. Completion of the second aircraft is expected in late spring of 1998. Deliveries of the aircraft to the Air Force are scheduled to begin in 2002, with the first F-22 squadron to be operational in 2005.
 

RECOMMENDATIONS -- Terminate the F-22 program. The United States is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, the world's dominant air power. Rather than committing our nation to huge expenditures for unneeded aircraft, we should continue to purchase new models of current aircraft, while continuing to develop the technologies which will be incorporated into the aircraft of the future.

Prepared by Christopher Hellman, Senior Research Analyst, October 22, 1997