The World At War

January 2000

January 1, 2000 is a "triple" beginning - a new year, a new century, and (popularly) a new millennium. Yet there remains much unfinished business from the last year, the last decade, indeed the entire 20^th century.

One statistic reveals just how incomplete the record is. There are still more than three dozen major conflicts (those with over 1,000 casualties, both military and civilian) raging in the world. The increase is most noticeable in Asia, where Indonesia is riven by internal strife and groups of Islamic militants are active against the governments of the Cental Asian republics that emerged after the demise of the Soviet Union. Overall, the increase in major wars worldwide was quite sharp.

Four conflicts in 1999 stand out above all others. Russian forces are again deeply mired in Chechnya just as they were in 1996. Promises of crushing the independence-minded republic with minimum Russian casualties seem to be crumbling as the battle for the Chechen capital of Grozny drags on. And the longer the fighting goes, the higher the civilian death toll becomes.

In Africa, armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) quieted for a while as the opposing factions regrouped after the August signing of the Lusaka cease-fire. At one point the fighting had drawn in the military forces of eight other African nations: Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Chad, Sudan (all supporting Laurent Kabila), Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi (all supporting rebels). In November the cease-fire was declared "dead" by one of the insurgent groups seeking to overthrow Kabila, and fighting began to escalate again.

The other two wars nominally ended before the beginning of 2000, but they actually have continued in other ways and at lower intensities. The first was the 78 day aerial bombing campaign led by NATO against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to compel the end of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. In spite of the 50,000 strong peacekeeping force now in Kosovo, ethnic hatreds continue to boil over in random killings - this time of the Serb and other minorities by ethnic Albanians. Recent reports also suggest that the Federal Yugoslav authorities are forming special action units to destabilize Montenegro, Yugoslavia's smaller republic whose leadership opposed Belgrade's policy in Kosovo.

The second conflict nominally over is the ethnic rampage by Indonesian troops and allied paramilitary units against East Timorese after the latter rejected autonomy in an August referendum. While Indonesian troops have left East Timor and the paramilitaries are less active now that their Indonesian support has ended, reprisals still occur. The good news is that most of those compelled to leave their homes have returned from refugee camps, and the 7,500 strong Australian-led Intervention Force (INTERFOR) has been able for the most part to restore civil peace. By 2001 East Timor should be "off the list."

Granting that East Timor was forcibly annexed by Indonesia in 1976, these four wars highlight the point that the vast majority of the 38 wars in this year's list are civil wars. Although the scale of the 1994 slaughter in Rwanda has not been repeated in any of these conflicts, internal struggles continue to produce the higher casualties and greater refugee flows than interstate wars.

Another feature of 1999 has been the mixed success in translating tentative peace accords into more permanent peace arrangements. Only when all parties in a conflict feel they have something to gain or, less often, when a factional leader is willing to trust an opponent(s), has progress be made. Usually, an outside mediator is required for success.

The faltering of the Lusaka ceasefire in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been mentioned. Next door, in Angola, a year-end series of attacks by government forces succeeded in freeing large tracts of the country from the grip of UNITA rebels. This, together with many significant defections from UNITA, has raised hopes that battlefield success may accomplish what the 1994 peace accord failed to do: end a 30 year civil war.

Still in Africa, the end of 1999 brought a coup in Cote d'Ivorie that overthrew the increasingly autocratic president, Henri Belie. Many western nations suspended aid, but the population seems to have welcomed the bloodless change of power.

§                                                         At what may have been the last moment, Senator George Mitchell pulled the hard won 1998 Good Friday Agreement from the ashes of defeat, convincing mainline Northern Irish Protestants that they had more to lose should the Agreement fail. But the optimism must be hedged with the reality that the main Unionist Party will take another vote in February 2000 on whether to continue the power-sharing arrangement with Sinn Fein. Although there are other issues, the vote will largely hinge on the status of decommissioning (turning in of weapons) by the IRA to an international monitoring body. The fact that the militias on both sides of the divide have largely respected their three year old self-imposed moratorium on violence is encouraging, but splinter groups bent on mayhem remain a threat to the peace.

§                                                         The 14 month moratorium on violence that has pervaded the Basque region of Spain was ended by the ETA in December 1999. At year's end French authorities seized over 2,000 pounds of explosives believed destined for the ETA. Meanwhile, Corsican separatists have taken the opposite tact, declaring that their low keyed bid for independence from France will end.

§                                                         In what is a welcome if short-lived agreement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) called a 20 day holiday truce in its campaign against the Colombian government. While the government welcomed the truce, the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN) and the right wing militias refused to join the suspension of hostilities. Despite the efforts of Colombian President Pastrana, the world should expect a full resumption of fighting after January 10 in this 30 year old civil war.

§                                                         On Luzon Island in the Philippines the long-dormant Communist Party of the Philippines seems to be rasing the profile of its New People's Army (NPA). Although the government estimates the NPA's strength at less than 10,000 armed fighters, at its peak in the 1980s the NPA counted as many as 25,000 adherents. The government also faces a long-running if low-level struggle with Muslim separatists.

§                                                         Despite a new president who declared a ceasefire, pledged to open the political process and granted a controversial amnesty to those who surrendered their arms, Algeria remains wracked by a deep civil war involving two anti-government groups, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) and the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika has given rebels a deadline of January 13 to surrender. But the November assassination of a prominent FIS leader who favored the peace plan bodes ill for continuation of President Bouteflika's "civil concord."

§                                                         While most of the world's attention was focused on East Timor and the rampages that followed the independence referendum there, Indonesia has been beset by a resurgence of violence in three areas of the nation: Aceh in the west, where the issue is economic exploitation and the "purity" of Islamic practice; the "Spice Islands" (Maluccan Islands) in the east, where the fighting, largely between Christians and Muslims, claimed over a 1,000 lives in 1999; and Irian Jaya, where ethnic issues predominate.

§                                                         In a surprise move in late December. Uganda and Sudan signed an agreement brokered by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter in which each leader pledged to cease supporting rebels trying to topple the other head of state and to restore diplomatic relations between the two nations. But elsewhere in Africa the peace accords put in place in Sierra Leone and Guinea-Bissau are proving quite fragile, with violence resuming in both nations late in the year.

§                                                         In what could be the final peace link in the eastern Mediterranean, talks between Israel and Syria resumed after a four year hiatus. Thorny issues abound, but both sides seem intent on trying to reach some form of agreement. If these talks produce a peace treaty, expectations are that Hezbollah and Hamas will lose their base of operations in Lebanon and that country too, will conclude a formal pact with Israel. The Israeli-backed South Lebanese Army is already on its last legs, but Syria - which is a significant presence in Lebanon - may have to support Beirut's efforts to keep internal sectarian squabbles from breaking out again into civil war.

§                                                         Also in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK)n declared it was ending its 15 year military struggle against the Turkish government. This declaration follows an August directive from the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to end fighting. Whether the entire PKK will conform to the announcement remains in doubt, particularly since Ocalan has been sentenced to death by a Turkish court and the Ankara government continues to mount sweeps of Kurdish areas in Turkey.

Many of the remaining wars seem to roll on from year to year with only the cost in human lives and resources changing, sometimes precipitously as in Sri Lanka's civil war. Others, such as the Indo-Pakistani confrontation in Kashmir, capture headlines with dramatic events in the region - such as the surprise infiltration of 600 men into Kashmir from Pakistan this past summer or the hijacking of an Air India jet at the end of the year by five men that India says are Pakistanis.

There were some rays of hope as the year ended. Former South African president Nelson Mandela was named to oversee negotiations aimed at ending the six year old ethnically-based Burundi civil war. And in Guatemala, the first presidential election since the 1996 peace accord was signed was peaceful and fair, giving real hope that Guatemala's 28 year long civil war is over for good.

Following is the list of the ongoing 38 major conflicts in the world at the start of 2000. This chart is followed by one depicting potential hot spots that could break out again into bigger conflagrations.

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1. In previous years the civil strife involving seven factions in three countries had been combined to represent three conflicts: Kurdish factions against Iran, Iraq, and Turkey; Indonesia's efforts to supress insurgencies in Aceh and Irian Jaya; and Colombia's war against the ELN and the FARC. Even realigning the January 1999 figures to separate these into their constituent parts gives only 27 wars (instead of 23) in progress at the beginning of that year, indicating just how sharp the rise in fighting has been over the course of the year to January 1, 2000.

World at War -- Ongoing Major Conflicts
January 1, 2000

Main Warring Parties

Year Began

Cause(s)

Other Foreign Involvement

Middle East

Iran vs. Kurds

1961

Independence

None

Iraq vs. Desert Storm Coalition (U.S. & U.K.)

1991

Stop WMD development

U.S., U.N. Inspection team

Iraq government (Sunni)/Shi'ite

1991

Religious

Iran; U.S. & U.K. (No-fly zone); Kuwait, Saudi Arabia (bases)

Iraq vs. Kurds

1961

Independence

U.S. (No-fly zone); Turkey (bases)

Israel vs. Hamas and Hezbollah

1975

Religious & Territory

U.N., U.S., financial "donors" for West Bank and Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iran

Lebanon: factions

1978

Power/ Territory

U.N., Syria, Iran

Turkey vs. Kurds

1961

Independence

None

Asia

Afghanistan: Taliban vs. Other Factions

1978

Ethnic & Religious

Former Soviet Union 1978-89, Pakistan, Iran

India vs. Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front

1989

Ethnic & Religious

U.N.

India vs. Punjab insurgents

1982

Religious

U.N.

India vs. Pakistan

1948

Ethnic & Religious

U.N., U.S.

Indonesia & paramilitaries vs. INTERFET in E. Timor

1975; 1999

Independence Stability opns

U.N., Portugal

Indonesia vs. Aceh separatists

1969

Autonomy & Religious

None

Indonesia vs. Irian Jaya separatists

1969

Autonomy

None

Indonesia vs. Muslim & Christian factions

1977

Religious & Territory

None

Kyrgyzstan vs. Islamic militants

1999

Religious

Uzbekistan

People's Republic of China vs. Tibet

1949

Autonomy and Religious

None

People's Republic of China vs. Uighur

1996

Independence

None

Philippines vs. Moro Islamic Liberation Front

1984

Religious

None

Philippines vs. New People's Army

1969

Ideological

None

Sri Lanka vs. Tamil Eelam

1978

Ethnic & Religious

India

Uzbekistan vs. Islamic militants

1997

Religious

None

Africa

Algeria vs. Armed Islamic Group (GIA) and Islamic Salvation Front (FIS)

1991

Religious vs. Secular rule

U.N.

Angola vs. UNITA

1975

Economic & Ethnic

U.N., U.S., South Africa

Burundi: Tutsi vs. Hutu

1988

Ethnic

None

Democratic Republic of Congo vs. Rwanda, Uganda & indigenous rebels

1997

Ethnic

U.N., Namibia, Angola, Chad, Zimbabwe, France, Organization of African Unity

Ethiopia vs. Eritrea

1998

Territory

Organization of African Unity, UN, U.S.

Guinnea Bissau vs. former army rebels

1998

Power

Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG)

Rwanda: Tutsi vs. Hutu

1990

Ethnic

U.N., U.S.

Sierra Leone vs. Revolutionary United Front

1989

Ethnic

Guinea, Nigeria/ECOMOG

Somalia: factions

1978

Ethnic

U.N. (humanitarian aid )

Sudan vs. Sudanese People's Liberation Army

1983

Ethnic & Religious

Iran, Uganda

Uganda vs. Lord's Army

1986

Power

Sudan

Europe

Russia vs. Chechnya

1994

Independence

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)

Kosovo: Albanians vs. Serbs & other minorities

1998

Autonomy & Ethnic

NATO, OSCE, UN

Latin America

Colombia vs. National Liberation Army (ELN)

1978

Drug Trade & Ideology

U.S.

Colombia vs. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)

1978

Drug Trade & Ideology

U.S.

Peru vs. Sendero Luminoso

1981

Ideology & Drug Trade

None

Parties to Conflict

Duration

Cause(s)

Foreign Mediation/Involvement

Middle East

Israel vs. Palestine

1948-94

Independent state

U.S., UN

Asia

Armenia vs. Azerbaijan

1990-94

Nagorno-Karabakh

OSCE

Myanmar (Burma) vs. factions; National League for Democracy

1942-

1988-

Ethnic & Drugs; Democracy

None;

U.S., U.N., Association of South East Asian Nations

Tajikistan vs. United Tajik Opposition

1992-97

Religious

U.N., CIS "Peacekeepers" from Russia & Uzbekistan

Africa

Cameroon vs. Nigeria

1994-96

Bakassi Islands

None

Chad vs. Muslim separatists

1965-

Religious

None

Kenya vs. Kikuyu separatists

1991-

Ethnic

U.S.

Liberia vs. National Patriotic Front

1989-99

Ethnic & Economic

U.N., ECOMOG

Europe

Serbs, Croats & Bosnian Muslims

1990-96

Final status of Bosnia-Herzegovina

NATO Stabilization Force) under U.N. mandate, Russia & others

Republic of Georgia vs. Abkhazia & South Osset

1992-93

Independence

U.N., Russia

Moldova/Trans-Dneister Region

1991

Ethnic & Economic

OSCE

United Kingdom vs. IRA and other factions

1969-97

Ethnic & Religious

U.S.

Americas

Haiti: factions vs. factions

1991-94

Economic

U.N., U.S.

Mexico vs. Zapatista & Popular Revolutionary Army

1983- 1993-

Ethnic & Religious

None