People's Liberation Army (PLA)

Total Armed Forces:

active - 2,470,000 (43% conscripts)

reserve - 500,000-600,000 (+ provincial militaries)

Defence Budget:

1999 - $12.6 billion (official figure)

2000 - $14.5 billion (official figure)

Real defense budget is estimated to be at least three times higher.

Army: PLA Ground Forces

active - 1,700,000 (800,000 conscripts)

80 combat divisions

7,760 tanks

212 helicopters

supporting artillery/air defense guns and missiles

Navy: PLA Navy

active - 220,000 (40,000 conscripts)

65 submarines including
1 strategic SSBN submarine
64 tactical SSN, SSG and SSK submarines

60 principal surface combatants

368 patrol and coastal combatants

39 mine warfare ships

59 amphibious warfare ships

25,000-strong Naval Air Force with 507 shore-based
combat aircraft and 37 armed helicopters

Air Force: PLA Air Force

active - 420,000 (160,000 conscripts)

over 3,000 combat aircraft including
1,015 fighter aircraft
over 1,800 fighter/ground attack aircraft
3 medium bomber regiments (120 aircraft)
170 helicopters

supporting air defense guns and missiles

Strategic Missile Forces:

100,000+ Offensive weapons including
20+ ICBM
100+ IRBM
12 SLBM
200+ SRBM

Paramilitary Forces

1,300,000 People's Armed Police ( internal security troops considered
to be an adjunct to the PLA in wartime)

Assessment:

Capable of defending Chinese mainland against all existing and foreseeable threats. Capable of offensive land warfare against smaller bordering states individually (Vietnam, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal) but would find logistics daunting even at this level of warfare. Clearly, logistics problems combined with the need to maintain security along borders with Russia, India and Pakistan are major inhibitions on Chinese offensive operations. China has no effective naval or air forces capable yet of projecting attacks against Taiwan or Japan and could not sustain a military presence in South China Sea against the U.S. Seventh Fleet. Its military capabilities have continued to advance significantly but while it can target, for example, Taiwan's shipping lanes and lob missiles at the island causing serious disruption, it does not yet have the ability to make an opposed amphibious landing. In short, China is impregnable, secure from external attack even by Russia, but has little offensive power to project against other nations.

Trends:

China's defence budget continues to increase from official figures of $11bn in 1998, $12.6bn in 1999 to $14.5bn in 2000. Actual military spending is estimated to be three times the official figure due to accounting inconsistencies and under-reporting as well as funding for some big-ticket defense items being listed elsewhere. China has steadily reduced its regular and reserved armed forces by about 25% since the late-1980s. The current force level is to be reduced further in accordance with the doctrinal shift away from territorial defence where large troops are stationed throughout the country to a smaller, more mobile force for rapid response to internal and external threats. Six of the 21 PLA Group Armies are being reorganised into a more flexible brigade-based structure. China has greatly enhanced its air effectiveness with the recent acquisition of 50 Su-30 fighter/ground attack aircraft from Russia due for delivery in 2002. This follows an earlier deal for 200 Su-27 air-superiority fighters, 15 of which are to be built in China. Naval capabilities have also been boosted with the delivery of all four Kilo class submarines completed in 1999 as well as the commissioning of the first Russian Sovremennyy destroyer in 2000. The second destroyer is expected to be delivered by end 2000 and negotiations are in process for another two. Also in the pipeline, plans to develop an aircraft carrier by 2005 and enhancement of the strategic and tactical submarine fleet with a new SSBN( to be armed with a new SLBM). Compared to the US and Russia, China's strategic missile capabilities are still limited. It has less than 200 nuclear warheads,, of which only about 25-30 are operational at any one time. China has only one nuclear-fuelled ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) that is not always operational. The development of American national missile defense (NMD) capability and joint theatre missile defense (TMD) with Taiwan and Japan will fuel China's insecurity and reinforce its strategic weapons modernisation program.