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CDI Library > The Defense Monitor > 2001 > The World at War
Colonel Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.) Chief of Research
The following chart shows the ebb and flow of conflicts by region at the start of each year since 1989.
At the start of 2001, four areas of particular interest to the U.S. remain quite volatile.
First is Indonesia, spread over 17,000 islands, possessing a still emerging and unsteady democracy. While open warfare has lessened dramatically in Timor, paramilitaries from West Timor continue to raid the newly independent East which is still struggling to establish a democracy. The Australian led Intervention Force, which first went into East Timor to quell the externally-induced violence, has been replaced by a U.N. peacekeeping force (U.N. Transitional Administration in East Timor or UNTAET).
The second is Israel-Palestine, where two peoples are locked in a renewed, bloody battle for their share of a small area both claim as their birthright. The last effort to forge a durable peace collapsed in July, with devastating results. Almost as soon as the leaders returned to the Mideast violence broke out. The new strife, called the Al-Aqsa Intifada, has claimed well over 300 lives, almost all Palestinian. On the political-diplomatic front, at the end of November, Prime Minister Ehud Barak of Israel agreed to hold early elections which many will see as a referendum on Barak's peace initiatives. In late December the Security Council defeated a resolution that would have authorized 2,000 unarmed military observers along the Israeli-Gaza Strip border and in the West Bank. A last ditch attempt to resuscitate peace talks at the end of the year failed when a face-to-face meeting between Chairman Arafat and Prime Minister Barak was canceled. The bottom line as 2001 begins points to continuing strife and an increased risk that new non-state entities will become active.
Third is Chechnya, where Russian forces remained deeply mired. Although the heavy assaults of 1999 have ceased, the army is caught in a low-intensity guerilla war that cannot be won by the military alone. Active Chechen resistance has been reduced to a few thousand fighters holding out in the mountains in Chechnya's south. But these fighters have been radicalized and an increasingly higher proportion of their financial, equipment, and personnel resources comes from radical Islamic groups in the Middle East. Although Russian losses already total several thousand, Russians continue to support President Putin's conduct of the war. With both sides entrenched, the conflict is likely to continue. Moreover, there is potential for a spillover to neighboring Georgia. Russia has bombed alleged Chechen positions in Georgia on at least three occasions and warned that it might introduce ground forces into Georgia. Moscow wants to attack Chechen refugee camps in Georgia from where Chechen militants allegedly stage incursions into Chechnya.
Continued fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, formerly Zaire) was the norm, even among former allies. Of the eight other African nations that were participating in the fighting in 1999 – Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Chad, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi – five remained quite active during 2000 despite conflict with other neighbors or their own internal unrest. Only a few hundred of the 13,000 strong peacekeeping force authorized by the U.N. Security Council for the DRC have deployed because there simply is no peace to keep. But on December 6, government and rebel forces agreed to pull back nine miles from the front lines to allow the few U.N. observers already in the country to begin monitoring the 1999 cease-fire.
Northern Ireland's overall peace process was put in jeopardy by both political and paramilitary in-fighting within and between the Protestant factions. On the other side, two break-away elements of the IRA reportedly merged and have secured more weapons and explosives. The IRA itself hinted it might reveal more locations of arms caches in return for the U.K. continuing to "reform" the province's police force, the Royal Ulster Constabulary. In Spain, the ETA, having ended a 14 month truce in December 1999, claimed responsibility for some 23 murders in its renewed struggle for independence of the Basque region from Madrid. In Kosovo the conflict between ethnic Serbs and Albanians continues, albeit at seemingly ever- lower intensities. Still, the original 50,000 strong peacekeeping force for Kosovo (KFOR) numbers some 38,000, of which 5,500 are Americans. The good news is that the Yugoslav Federation successfully weathered a potentially violent election and its outcome, the election of the nationalist Vojislav Kostunica, relieved Belgrade's threatening stance toward Montenegro, its junior partner in the Yugoslav Federation. The bad news is the emergence of the ethnic Albanian Army of Presevo, Medveda, and Bujanovac which has occupied the three-mile wide buffer zone between federal Yugoslav forces and NATO forces patrolling the American sector of Kosovo. The 1,000 strong group, apparently drawing on weapons caches from the former Kosovo Liberation Army, has attacked and killed Serbian policemen who enter the demilitarized area.
In Angola, the government has almost doubled its forces in a determined effort to end the 30 year old civil war with the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Government victories freed large tracts of land and these advances, together with many significant defections from UNITA, have raised hopes that battlefield success may accomplish what the 1994 peace accord failed to do. Eritrea and Ethiopia finally signed a peace treaty December 12, ending hostilities that broke out in 1998 and killed as many as 100,000 people. The U.N. approved a force of 4,420 to monitor the border and will also establish a commission to define the border where it is in dispute. For the first time in U.N. peacekeeping missions, the three year old multinational Standby Forces High Readiness Brigade (SHIRBRIG), consisting of troops from eight European countries plus Argentina and Canada, has been dispatched to form the core of the U.N. Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia (UNMEE). In Cote d'Ivoire, the attempt by General Robert Guei to rig the presidential election backfired. He was forced into exile after the populace rebelled and the army refused to fire on the people. His chief opponent in the election, Laurent Gbagbo, declared victory but was himself challenged by Alassane Ouattara who had been excluded from the contest. Ouattara's Rally of the Republicans party, which draws support from the Muslim north, then decided to boycott the December 10, 2000 parliamentary elections, thereby setting up a north-south ethnic and religious-based struggle. Liberia's Charles Taylor and Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore were cited by Britain and the U.S. as major players in the continuing unrest that plagues Sierra Leone. The U.N. peacekeeping mission in Sierra Leone (UNAMSIL) became so disorganized that at one point over 500 of its members were being held hostage by the rebel Revolutionary United Front. The British landed a force of approximately 1,000 troops which re-stabilized the situation and gave the U.N. force – increased from its original 5,000 to 13,000 – the opportunity to reorganize itself and redeploy. At year's end, ethnic and religious-based strife in Guinea escalated sharply with the government accusing Liberia of supporting rebel groups based in that country and in Sierra Leone. The situation is made more complex by the presence of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Guinea's two neighbors, which opens Guinea to charges of supporting Liberian factions. Some reports put the recent death toll as high as 900.
In Latin America, the most prominent violence is still centered in Colombia where the government remains locked in a three way struggle with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the smaller National Liberation Army (ELN), and to a lesser extent right-wing para-militaries. The U.S. Congress passed and the President signed a $1.3 billion anti-narcotics aid package to support Colombian President Pastrana's "Plan Colombia," but exactly what equipment will be provided and the number of U.S. "trainers" remains unresolved. This 31 year old civil and narco-war seems set to go on indefinitely. Two other Latin American trouble spots took different turns. In Mexico the new administration of Vincente Fox Quesada withdrew troops from Chiapas, prompting the Zapatista leader, Subcommander Marcos, to agree to negotiate starting in January. One potential stumbling block has already been removed: President Fox agreed to submit the San Andres Accords, negotiated in 1999 by his predecessor, to the Mexican parliament for ratification. In Haiti, Jean- Bertrand Aristide was reelected president in an election boycotted by the opposition. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan recommended in late December that the U.N. International Civilian Support Mission, whose mandate expires in February, not be extended because of the worsening political crisis and increases in violent crime.
On Jolo Island the Philippines government had to deal with kidnaping by a new rebel Muslim group, the Abu Sayyaf. At the same time the older and larger Moro Islamic Liberation Front, estimated to number 600-800 combatants, presented the Manila government with a renewed challenge as peace negotiations broke down in April and fighting resumed, leaving 35 dead and forcing a reported 100,000 civilians to flee. Government troops continue to confront ambushes and low level violence from the communist New People's Army (NPA). Violence in Indonesia (in addition to Timor) continued in 2000 albeit at different levels. In Aceh in the west, the issue is economic exploitation and the "purity" of Islamic practice. A June cease-fire was followed by peace talks which continue at year's end. Fighting in the "Spice Islands" (Maluccan Islands) in the east, largely between Christians and Muslims, has claimed over 3,000 lives since the start of 1999 – with at least 500 killed in the first few days of 2000. And in Irian Jaya, where ethnic, cultural, and economic issues predominate, the central government rejected a June independence declaration for "West Papua" although increased autonomy has been promised. In fact, Jakarta is on the verge of granting greater economic and cultural autonomy to all regions, a move that must be delicately balanced if the country is to avoid disintegrating. Peace talks proposed by the Sri Lankan government were rejected by the Tamil Tigers who then, at year's end, declared a one-month truce which the government ignored in turn. A move toward peace in Kashmir proposed by the Indian government was similarly rejected by Kashmiri rebel factions. However, in December Pakistan declared a truce and withdrew some troops from the Kashmiri Line of Control with India. Further north, groups of Islamic militants, apparently inspired by the Afghani Taliban, continue to be active against governments of the former Soviet Central Asian republics. Even the South Pacific witnessed ethnic based violence in Fiji and the Solomon Islands.
May 2000 was a watershed in the Middle East. Israel's precipitous withdrawal from South Lebanon created a vacuum which was quickly filled by Hezbollah guerillas. Later the Lebanese government moved forces into the area, and the U.N. verified that Israeli troops had completely withdrawn from the country. Talks between Syria and Israel about the Golan Heights broke down in mid-2000 but have restarted. Nonetheless, with the Al-Aqsa Intifada continuing and deaths mounting, chances of settling the issue remain very remote.
Following is the list of the ongoing 39 significant conflicts in the world at the start of 2001. This does not include the 23 potential hot spots where conflagrations could re-ignite or grow. (For this list visit www.cdi.org/dm/2001/issue1/hotspots.htm.)
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WORLD AT WAR — ONGOING SIGNIFICANT CONFLICTS • JANUARY 1, 2001
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For Additional Information: E-Mail CDI Chief of Research Col. Daniel Smith, USA (Ret.).
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