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Interview Robert Hunter
November 10, 1998
ADM's Tomas Valasek
interviews a Senior Advisor to the Rand Corporation and Former Ambassador to NATO for "War for Oil in the Former Soviet Union?"
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HUNTER: Not in the near future, the next round of NATO enlargement is yet to be
decided, and when it does it will include quite near in from the Baltics, or from the Balkans. To
have countries from the trans-caucuses join NATO, I think is going to be in the very distant
future, if at all. None of them have asked to join, and frankly the reach of the alliances as a
whole doesn't go that far, certainly not for membership. The 16 soon to be 19 allies really do see their vocation mostly in providing security for the center
of Europe, now that's not just the old countries that belong to NATO, its also into the heartland
and also including Russia, but there really is virtually no support for an active NATO role in
providing security, as far east as the trans-caucuses. Well I don't think the United States has ever wanted NATO to have security guarantees for the
trans-caucuses. I don't think the United States has ever wanted NATO to extend
security guarantees to the trans-caucuses it is simply too far and you would never get a consensus
to do it. Now that doesn't mean that this area is unimportant, in fact all three of these countries
belong to Partnership for Peace, which has a lot to do with the transformation of their militaries,
demonstration of their independence, the opportunity for crisis management and even conflict
resolution in the region, but to bring them within the actual protective umbrella of NATO, this is
not an American aspiration or a NATO aspiration. At the same time if there were conflict there
that were threatening oil supplies or really did threaten to become something even wider, the
United States and perhaps for the coalition of other willing allies might have to consider active
engagement. Well to begin with there really isn't any threat to the oil supplies at he moment except if there
was a resurgence of the fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and there is an interest there
on humanitarian and political and every kind of ground to try to keep that or from restarting and
to try to resolve the conflict of Nagorakarobak. But frankly I think at this point the question of
having to use military force in the Caspian is simply moot. Well, as Ambassador to NATO in Azerbaijan when the request was made that NATO actually
taken active role in protecting pipelines. This is not something the alliance as a whole is likely to
do, except in terms of providing advice, perhaps individual countries would be willing to help
provide some support for efforts by any country in the region that is trying to protect a national
asset, or in fact an asset that has bordered international implications like Anora pipeline. But I
don't think you are going to see NATO as a whole doing this. Well obviously there has been no direct request for assistance, no plan has been has been drawn
up, no understanding on what the threat might be. But indeed I suspect the United States and
other countries concerned with the free flow of oil would be available to provide at least advise if
not support in insuring pipeline security. Well actually NATO knows a lot about energy pipelines, not so much about providing the
security but how about to manage them economically because it does have its own extensive
pipeline system with a number of countries that belong to it but that is mostly an economic and
logistics management question, it is not a security question. |