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Interview Ivan Eland
April 28, 1998
ADM interviews the Director of Defense Policy Studies at the Cato Institute,
for "Why Is Military Spending Going Up?"
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| ELAND: Well, the Pentagon currently
has a requirement to fight two Major Theater Wars nearly simultaneously.
And what that means is they have give two examples of the Persian Gulf
and also an attack of North Korea on South Korea. And there probably isn't
enough resources in the Defense Department to conduct this type of a strategy;
that is to say there's a mismatch between the resources and the strategy
itself. I think a lot of people would agree with that. Some
people want to cut strategy down, and other people want to increase the
resources. I would be in favor of reducing the strategy.
I think that the National Defense
Panel, an independent panel of retired military and civilians, has questioned
the strategy, and they said that it may just be a force protection mechanism.
That is, the way to justify the current force structure, which I believe
is the case. The National Defense University has also said that the
strategy, the two war strategy, is less important now than it was, planning
for two wars. So I would be in favor of reducing the strategy, especially
after the Cold War is over. We don't really need to fight two wars
at the same time. I don't think it's in our strategic interest that
it would require that. HELLMAN: Do you want to elaborate
briefly on what the NDP's statement about the strategy's being less significant,
where that came from, what was it the result of, what are their feelings
about the international climate?
ELAND: Well, the NDP examined
both of the regional scenarios and found that there was less of a threat,
that is the threat was diminishing in both theaters. First of all,
the North Koreans are short of food and fuel and it would be very hard
for them to conduct an effective invasion of the South, simply because
their people are starving. That's one thing. Many people think
the regime is going to implode. And also, that was also mentioned
in the NDP's report, that this scenario might go away.
As far as the other scenario, the
Persian Gulf, that was, the NDP had said that that was a scenario in which
the threat was declining because of the economic sanctions, arms embargo,
Saddam is unable to sell his oil to get revenues to rebuild his army after
it was destroyed during the Gulf War. So those are some of the reasons
that the scenario was, are, that the NDP, er, excuse me, the NDP reached
the conclusion that planning for two wars was less important now.
HELLMAN: Roughly, where do you think
military spending levels oughtta be and how do we go about getting there? ELAND: well, I think in the post-Cold War
era, when we need to, uh, you know, take a look at what our vital interests
are and scale back those areas where we do intervene. I think $135 billion
would probably be enough to cover it, which is roughly about half, maybe
a little over a half of the defense budget what we're currently spending
now. I think it could be dramatically reduced.
I mean, if you, when you stop and think about it, we spend almost twice as much as all
the threat or potential threat countries combined, and I would include
Russia, China, Libya, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Cuba, and Syria in that.
And so, we spend almost twice as much as all those countries combined.
We also spend almost 50% more than our NATO allies, and our NATO allies
have the next-most-capable militaries in the world compared to the US.
So, I mean, we're vastly outspending everyone in the world, and it equates
to about $1,000 per person per year on average for defense spending, so
your average taxpayer is spending $1,000 per year on defense. HELLMAN: You wanted to say something
about some of the systems that we're currently looking at funding or funding
that you think we could do without?
ELAND: Yeah, I think there's
a lot of systems that are left over from the Cold War and they have a lot
of industrial might behind them as far as industries lobbying the Pentagon
to keep these weapons. But we have an F-22 fighter, and yet we have
complete air superiority. We have the best fighter in the world,
the F-15, already. The Comanche Helicopter.
They're still producing the DDG-51
Destroyer, which is a really complex and deluxe ship which is left over
from the Cold War. And they're still talking about producing another
Nimitz-class carrier before they move over to a more experimental carrier.
So they could cut that out of the budget as well, and that's about $5.4
billion for one ship. Those are some of the procurements that I think
could be eliminated. They also do need to take the Secretary's recommendation
and cut more bases, because the bases have only been cut 21%--the budget
has been, er, the forces have been cut 36%. I think we need to cut
more bases as well. HELLMAN: Would you then say that,
or to what would you attribute support in Congress, particularly among
members of the Armed Services Committee, for rather than reducing spending,
actually adding to the current budget.
ELAND: Well, I think there's
a lot of parochial concerns. Senators and Congressman have pet weapons
systems programs in their particular district or state, and to keep that,
they'll have to keep another on in someone else's state or district, you
know, horse trading as far as that goes. And so, what you have is
a proliferation of, you know, systems that need to be funded, and so they'd
like to add money rather than reduce money. I mean you see the threat
going one way and the spending going the other way because of the domestic
interests.
HELLMAN: Anything you'd like to
add? Because I'm done here.
ELAND: I guess I already mentioned this
but I'd like to just reiterate it. The fact that, um the US, um, no-one
has ever really defined our vital interests. People use the term vital
interests for Bosnia, vital interests for Somalia or whatever, or vital
interests for these two scenarios, but no-one has ever stopped to think
about what our vital interests really are. And there's not
a peer competitor or near-peer competitor coming along for 20 or 30 years.
I think most people would agree with that. So, if we don't really
need to be intervening in these areas, or if they're of less vital interest,
why are planning for two wars to fight in two areas that are of questionable
interest in the first place.
HELLMAN: That's it. Great,
thanks.
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